Sunday, July 31, 2016

Dazed And Confused And Dazed: I Have No Idea What To Write About Or Comment On In The Stock Market Excep Small Caps (IWM)

The S&P continues to be in a confusing slow 'melt-up' while the market grinds higher (for inexplicable reasons). The only thing I like at the moment is Natural Gas (UNG) however S&P Small Caps (IWM) might be in for a little trouble next week. The RSI(5) has just put in a sell signal and my TRIX and MACD indicators appear to be about to bearishly crossover. Support in IWM should be the EMA(34) which also happened to be a resistance level back in November, December and again in June (just under $118.00).

Saturday, July 30, 2016

Oil Industry Keeps On Takin' The Hits

CNOOC will post $1.2b H1 loss due to oil price slump

China National Offshore Oil Corporation, the country's largest offshore oil and gas producer, warned that it will have its first half-year loss of 8 billion yuan ($1.2 billion) since becoming a listed company, due to a prolonged slump of oil prices and a write-down on its Canadian oil sands assets. The offshore oil giant expects a…

Oil Bear Market Begins

Chevron loses $1.47 billion as slump in oil prices persists

SAN RAMON, Calif. — Battered by a protracted slump in worldwide oil prices, Chevron suffered a second-quarter loss, its third straight quarter of red ink, the company said Friday. The energy giant lost $1.47 billion during the quarter that ended in June, compared with a profit of $571 million for the year-ago second quarter. "The second…

What?! Central Banks Have Lost Their Credibility! When Did This Happen?

Japan's shocking stimulus illuminates central banks' lack of credibility

After a weekend summit where Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda either didn't know what was coming or flat out lied about it, Shinzo Abe's supermajority government announced an astounding ¥28 trillion fiscal stimulus package that immediately sent the yen tumbling. That's US$265 billion. The yen recovered slightly since, after a story in the Wall Street…

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Natural Gas (UNG): Well That Wasn't Unexpected, But Today Was Absurd

I've been mentioning a lot lately how much I though Natural Gas ETF (UNG) was in a cup-and-handle formation and today it rose 7.30%. This was a very bullish development on strong volume. It stopped right at a resistance level I previously identified, around $8.50. I've identified the channel quite well which now has two taps on the lower support line so I expect some serious upside movement from here once it gets above $8.50. All my indicators have turned over bullishly too so today's movement should get a lot people taking a long look at UNG.

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

So I'm Not The Only One Feeling Bullish About Natural Gas

Why you should buy the dip in energy stocks, specifically natural gas

Investors may be inclined to take some profits and follow the near-term move lower in oil prices. But those trends also suggest valuations for Canadian energy stocks may dip to a more attractive level, an opportunity analysts at Raymond James thinks investors should jump on. "In the mid- to longer-term, we remain highly constructive on a…

China: Caught Between An Equity Trap And A Debt Bomb

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Stock Watch: Biotechnology (XBI), China (FXI), and Emerging Markets (EEM)

I was expecting a dip in the market that would allow another buying opportunity but this market just continues melting higher! A couple of important index ETF's are at critical support levels.

Biotechnology: XBI
It broke through a resistance level four session ago (a move that left me quite surprised) made up of lower highs in June and July and now finds itself at the exact level of the most recent high in June at $60.00. A move above this level should be taken as a high risk buy signal as the market is quite overbought at this point.
China: FXI
China ETF FXI looks pretty terrifying and exhilarating at the same time. I've drawn in a proposed bearish ascending wedge but I'm not married to it. The resistance and support lines of the wedge could be used as buy and sell signals but the configuration of the EMA's look like this is going to start pulling away to the upside.
The dot plot for FXI suggests this is going to $39.60 and since one of my very long term indicators (MACD 55, 144, 0) just crossed over bullishly I have to believe that there is more upside present. A break above $35.75 should be taken as a long/buy signal.
Emerging Markets: EEM
The configuration of EEM on the charts right now looks identical to gold a few months ago when I thought it looked over-bought but didn't retrace and just melted up. I think EEM is going to do the same thing and the long/buy signal is still in place. Target is $40.15 at the moment.

Monday, July 25, 2016

Daily News Roundup: I Miss Our Long Romantic Walks To The Refrigerator

Business & Finance:
Based on this measure, China may be caught in a liquidity trap (Bloomberg)
Beware the $10 trillion glut of Treasuries as U.S. falls deeper and deeper into the red (Financial Post)
Huge spike in Chinese property investors' interest in the U.K. post-Brexit (The Telegraph)
Globalization is slowly dying (Business Insider)

Commodities:
Oil tumbles to three month low as U.S. drilling climbs amid glut (Bloomberg)
Energy giants profits' five times too high (The Telegraph)
Iraq overtakes Saudi Arabia as top oil seller (Business Standard)

International Affairs:
Sturgeon says "Hard Brexit" concern boosts independence case (Bloomberg)
Donald Trump threatens to pull U.S. out of the World Trade Organization (The Telegraph)
Erdogan's counter-coup weakens the Syrian rebels (The Economist)

Environment:
UK wind farm ban may cost Scotland £3 billion, report says (Bloomberg)
Iran signs deal for 30 MW solar project (Renewables)
Wind energy deals are swaying major players (Clean Technica)

Art & Design:
BMW concept (Hi Consumption) 
Bertone concept cars (Uncrate)
Olympics and real triumph (Man of Many)

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Commodities (DBC): Long Term Trend Break Or Double Top?

I'm getting a little sick and tired of this market. I haven't had this long a stretch of not being able to 'read' it for a very long time, but it keeps grinding higher. As we get into the vacation month of August I expect things to get worse and this trend to continue. All I can advise at this stage is, buy the dip!

Commodities ETF DBC made a break with a long term up-trend recently. Slope of Hope and others have made a big deal about this and are using this, I think mistakenly, as a sign that it forecasts worse things to come. I feel quite the opposite as DBC now is in a bullish declining wedge and putting in wave 3 of a possible larger 5 wave uptrend, a double top might even go in. In the near-term however I would expect a retracement before it either breaks resistance of the channel line or turns back down.

Bonds And Stocks To Undetake More "Table Turning"

David Rosenberg: Bonds are the new stocks and stocks are the new bonds

So the equity market has taken off again and the major averages continue to hit new highs. In this last leg of the trade, the defensive rate-sensitives have seen a round of profit-taking but this has really not put much of a dent in the year-to-date price gains in the S&P 500 Telecom (+21 per cent)…

Friday, July 22, 2016

Oil Sands Companies Are Holding On, But Just Barely

Optimism in oilpatch rebound still 'fragile' as Precision, Encana post results

CALGARY - Executives from Encana Corp. and Precision Drilling Corp. expressed restrained optimism as they reported earnings for the second quarter Thursday, but analysts said the results show early signs of a rebound in the hard-hit sector. "The sentiment swings in the past month-and-a-half have been phenomenal. The tone has changed, the sentiment has change but…

Crude Oil (USO) and Natural Gas (UNG): Signs Of Optimism?

Crude Oil ETF USO is in a down trend which I'm not going to argue about, however right now it appears to be poised to put in a wave 3 after getting caught in a descending wedge pattern. I expect from there that the decline will continue followed by a possible reversal and a continuation of the larger uptrend that began back in February, but a pop in oil looks like a strong possibility. Alternatively, a short could be entered if it breaks $10.30 as the EMA's are bearishly aligned at the moment.
Concomitant with crude oil at the moment is Natural Gas ETF UNG which has been grinding lower for a few weeks now and appears to be putting in the handle of my proposed cup-and-handle pattern. I'll admit I'm not very good at spotting these but I like how things are aligned at the moment, particularly as we are entering air conditioning season in the U.S. For a trigger I'm going to use the upper resistance line of the handle pattern around $8.00. The EMA's have not yet crossed over bearishly and I am anticipating a bounce once they meet.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Daily News Roundup: I'm Sorry For What I Said When You Tried To Wake Me Up

Business & Finance:
London off-plan home sales slump 34% as Brexit woes intesify (Bloomberg)
Canadian millennials still stuck in the basement as youth unemployment surges (Financial Post)
FTSE 100 falter and pound slides by more than expected on airfares surge (The Telegraph)

Commodities:
Weaker pound drives surge in United Kingdom gas exports to continent (Bloomberg)
Saudis aim to create world's largest oil fleet (Oil Price)
Russia clears $11.38 billion for nuclear power plant in Bangladesh (BD News 24)

Environment: 
Solar energy development gains momentum in Nigeria (ESI Africa)
India doubles down on solar parks after SunEdison setback (Reuters)

International Affairs:
United Kingdom faces slowest growth since 2012 after Brexit vote, says IMF (Bloomberg)
Turkey extends purge to Universities, asking all Deans to go (Bloomberg)

Art & Design:
2017 Ford GT Heritage Edition (Hi Consumption)
Presenting, the Kraken by Iron Pirate Garage (Man of Many)
 For sale, a 1968 Lamborgini 400GT right hand drive (Uncrate)
 
Star Wars drones you can battle with (Cool Material)

Monday, July 18, 2016

It Was Going To Catch Up With Us Sooner Or Later

William Watson: We're starting to see the higher-risk consequences of ultra-low interest rates

What are the big messages of economics? One is cost. Everything has a cost, even when it seems not to. Another is that actions can have - and almost always do have - unintended consequences, which are often themselves costs. In terms of big ideas, I'm not sure there's much more to economics. To an economist,…

Saturday, July 16, 2016

I'm Not The Only One Apparently Confused By The Market

Markets ditch fear for greed, but the chorus of caution is growing louder

A chorus of financial market veterans are warning investors to beware, saying that the blistering stock and bond rally of the past two weeks looks to be built on flimsy ground. Laurence D. Fink, chief executive of BlackRock Inc., warned Thursday he expects the current rally to be "short-lived" unless corporate earnings in the U.S. pick…

Never Waste A Good Crisis

Climate change initiatives a $7-trillion funding opportunity for capital markets: Carney

TORONTO The trillions needed to fund global carbon reduction commitments in the coming years is a big opportunity for investors, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said Friday in a speech to Toronto's financial community. Carney, formerly the Bank of Canada governor, spoke at the Toronto Region Board of Trade with Catherine McKenna, the minister of…

Friday, July 15, 2016

Crude Oil (USO): Will It Or Won't It?

I commented earlier in the week on how terrible energy was shaping up to be. I might not have been right with regards to ETF Index funds that follow oil and gas companies, but I was with the index funds that follow the commodity. Crude Oil (USO) has been slipping pretty consistently over the last ten days with some wild swings of over 4%, but now I think it's time to see a proper retracement before this continues down again. The overall trend is down for crude oil regardless of what the news is from Nigeria but USO finds itself in a small bullish declining wedge and so I decided to remove some of my short positions in Crude and then short again when it reaches the moving averages or the upper resistance line of it's current channel.
This is generally in keeping with the oil and gas industry that appear poised to breakout of an ascending wedge. Looking at XLE, resistance is currently at $69.50 and any break above, no matter how short it might be, might take crude oil with it. On a macro scale the two are going in different directions with oil and gas companies rising and crude oil falling.

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Emerging Markets (EEM): Unleash The Kraken!!

A chart I've been ignoring for far too long after I had written about it so often a few weeks back is Emerging Markets ETF (EEM). For a while I had been commenting on the condensing triangle it had been in which had repeatedly rejected any upwards advances for around a month, but finally four session ago broke out.
This is a very bullish omen for Emerging Markets, however glancing at the weekly chart a large bearish ascending wedge is developing. I can't say for certain where this might this might have a reversal because very little resistance appears between $36.00 and $38.00.

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Gott Im Himmel! Deutsche Bank And Systemic Risk

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

Daily News Roundup: My Computer Hard Drive Crashed And The NSA Won't Send Me Their Backup Copy

Business & Finance:
Brexit bounce making history as stocks gain closes in on $2 trillion (Bloomberg)
If the message the bond market is sending is right, we should all be terrified (Financial Post)
No, the markets are not taking Brexit in their stride. Far from it. (The Telegraph)

Commodities:
Two years into the oil price war that changed the world, looks like OPEC is winning (Financial Post)
IEA warns that oil demand is ebbing while supply remains at elevated levels (CNBC)
U.S. becoming net natural gas exporter in 2017 (Platts)
Iran has agreed to join with France in nuclear fusion project (Reuters)

International Affairs:
David Cameron bows out in hilarious Prime Minister's Questions (The Telegraph)
Women are cleaning up Britain's Brexit mess (Bloomberg)
U.N. tribunal dismisses China's claims in the South China Sea (The Economist)
Amid talk of helicopters, Abe eyes reboot of plan (Bloomberg)

Environment:
Wind energy supplied 83% of South Australia electricity on Monday (Renew Economy)
EDF acquires majority stake in Chinese wind energy developer (Daily Mail)

Art & Design:
NASCAR Land Rover Defender by Yasid Design (Hi Consumption)
Ecce Cycles Opus series is art, on a roll (Man of Many)
Atlas Obscura (Uncrate)
Presenting the Guacamole Breakfest Sandwich (Werd)

Sunday, July 10, 2016

Even With The Imminent Deployment Of A Useless Superjet To The Mideast, Brexit Preocupies NATO More

F-35 Could Be Deployed To Mideast Soon; Brexit Dominates NATO Summit

LONDON: Gen. Hawk Carlisle, head of Air Combat Command, pulled no punches when I asked him at the Royal International Air Tattoo if the F-35’s flying displays in Britain should be read as a signal to Russia. “Yes. You bet.” Several generals at the Royal International Air Tattoo agreed with Carlisle’s view that the plane’s appearance…

Saturday, July 09, 2016

British Pound: Sterling Needs A Saviour And Mark Carney Be Thy Name

For someone who's student debt is all in Canadian Dollars (woo hoo!) but is being paid in British Pounds (boooo!) the last two weeks are something I'd like to forget. We had such a beautiful declining bullish wedge developing in Sterling that just I know would have smashed resistance and broken upwards had the Brexit vote been in the other direction. Alas, this optimistic and fanciful dream has not come to pass and the nightmare I thought we were voting against has now arrived. We have a British pound that has fallen and won't stop. We have a political establishment in absolute chaos (I wish this was hyperbole but it isn't I'm afraid). Neither side of the Brexit vote had a contingency plan for this eventuality and no one seems to be prepared to accept responsibility for the outcome that has been wrought on this country. Even if a Tory leader is "voted" in by September the country is rudderless until then, and until then she will be untested and unprepared for the challenge that lays ahead. Never before will a British Prime Minister be inducted into the highest office in the land with such a baptism of fire. Because the Brexit vote has violently changed in the blink of an eye the political landscape of this country the next Tory leader can only expected to be 'care taker' for the next twelve months after-which another election will have to be called. This was supposed to be a three generation Tory dynasty after Tony Blair and Labour's illegal invasion of Iraq, but David Cameron's actions have me now questioning whether the Tory's can even last until the end of the year.

Looking at the very long-term chart of the British Pound it appears a massive head shoulders pattern may have been developing all along. The neck line is broken and there is nothing below. We are truly in uncharted waters.
Looking at the weekly chart, if a large downward channel has formed ('if' being the operative word) support might come around 120 on FXB, the British Pound ETF.
Turning to the daily charts it's also possible a steep declining bullish wedge is developing, although I'm not completely married to this pattern. The only hope of this snapping up is Mark Carney's announcement of a stimulus early in the new week and not a moment too soon because some sort of bottom needs to appear to be going in at this stage.

Friday, July 08, 2016

Energy Is Starting to Look Like Crap: XLE, DWTI, USO

What can I say, there's no other way to say it? The downward channel that I pointed out about a week and half ago for Energy ETF XLE hasn't budged and Energy and energy stocks are all beginning to look quite weak. I would have expected that if it really was a bull flag that was forming that we would have seen a breakout by now. Instead it seems to be consolidating which is appropriate given the jobs report on Friday and a disappointing crude oil drawn-down on Thursday. But the EMA's are still pinching and seem mere days away from finally crossing over. Furthermore, looking at the momentum indicators for XLE and we can so a long slow steady decline while XLE has been climbing higher. Next week we could begin to witness a transition to slow-and-steady retracement.
Even on the weekly charts for XLE was a sell signal put in this week on the RSI(5) indicator.
Crude Oil ETF USO this week had all it's EMA's bearishly crossover after being pummeled 4.5% Thursday. Momentum has also had negative divergence appear on the indicator since May.
With this I began looking at ETF's that would take advantage of any downturn in Energy and DWTI had EMA's just today crossover after being in a prolonged basing pattern.

Thursday, July 07, 2016

Daily News Roundup: Two Words, Keep It Real

Business & Finance:
FTSE 100 rebounds and pound studies as financial markets price in 78% chance of rate cut next week (The Telegraph)
World faces deflation shock as China devalues at accelerating pace (The Telegraph)
How Italy's oldest bank lost 99% of its value and why the rest of the Italian banks are also a basket case (Financial Post)

Commodities:
Crude tumbles to two-month low as U.S. supply disappoints (Bloomberg)
Bill Gates and other billionaires backing a nuclear renaissance (Oil Price)

Environment:
Argentina is considered as having the best wind energy resources in the world (EVWind.es)
U.K. solar energy breaks record - almost 24% of electricity demand (Renew Economy)
China urged to step up efforts to replace coal to clear air (Bloomberg)

International Affairs:
May faces Leadsom in battle to follow Cameron (Bloomberg)
The big test for the pound: Funding the deficit (The Economist)
Putin's military buildup in the Baltic stokes invasion fears (Bloomberg)

Art & Design:
Waterlovt houseboat by Belvari Marine (Hi Consumption)
Lyfe floating planter puts your plants in the air like you just don't care (Man of Many)
On auction, 1958 AC Aceca-Bristol (Uncrate)
'The Warriors' is being made into a TV show (Cool Material)

Wednesday, July 06, 2016

Crude Oil: How The Tables Have Turned!

Move over OPEC, U.S. now has the world's biggest oil reserves: study

Move over Venezuela, there is a new contender for the title of the world's largest crude oil reserves holder. Thanks to its shale riches, the United States now holds more recoverable crude oil reserves, according to a new study by Rystad Energy, a Norwegian energy consultancy. Using its own methodology, the consultancy says the United States…

Monday, July 04, 2016

With Quantitative Easing Likely To Follow....

Osborne To Slash Corporation Tax To Attract Investors

British Chancellor George Osborne is planning to cut corporation tax to less than 15 percent in an attempt to offset the shock to investors of the U.K.'s decision to leave the European Union. He said Britain must show the world it is “still open for business” as he outlined plans to build a “super competitive economy”…

Energy Is Going To Save Us In Post Brexit Rebound? Nope

Five major headwinds that could prevent the return of an oil bull market

As the Calgary Stampede kicks off this week, there remains a subdued optimism that the bear that has overrun the oilpatch during the past two years will soon turn back into a bull. While it helps that oil has rebounded back to near $50 a barrel from its $26 low in January, when looking ahead we…

Two Weeks After Brexit And Things Are As Clear As Mud

Once the shock of Brexit begins to settle, what's next for the global economy?

When the shock from Britain's rejection of the European Union begins to subside, the reality of the vote could come tumbling down with a thud. What will be lost, what will be gained and - perhaps, as critical - what won't we see coming next? For now, the ball is in London's court - where there…

Sunday, July 03, 2016

China (YANG), Energy (XLE) and Health (XLV): Still Caught In Condensing Patterns

I  mentioned the weekend before the Brexit that a lot of equities were caught in condensing triangle patterns - patterns that by there very nature can move either up or down as the equity squeezes into a tighter and tighter area, and I thought it was appropriate that mere days before the historic vote a lot of Index ETF's were displaying that pattern. I thought it was an indication of the ambiguity the market generally felt towards the outcome of the vote and strongly everyone felt how it might go either way. Some of those equities have since broken out of the triangles, but as I am going to illustrate below, some of those equities are still in condensing triangles which I find quite puzzling.  If these triangles do break upwards, why? Evidence is showing an enormous number of money managers and insiders are in cash.

China: FXI
About two weeks ago FXI broke out of a long term declining channel and seems to have entered a new one but meantime seems stuck in this condensing triangle. It has at the upper resistance level so next week a breakout will be very bullish. What worries me though is that this market really shouldn't be bullish, especially after comments have been recently of China's junk bond market freezing up.
Energy: XLE
Energy is not in a condensing triangle but I did query whether it was in a bull flag last week. It is still in this pattern but once again next week we are expecting a breakout.
Health Sector: XLV
Health Sector ETF XLV has been in a massive condensing triangle for almost a year now and appears poised to breakout. Bullish crossovers on the EMA's are in place and my long term MACD (55,140,0) indicator says this has been a buy since May!

Saturday, July 02, 2016

I'm Trying To Remember The Last Time I Heard That Something Was "Not Sustainable"

'Not sustainable at all': Investors stockpiling miners in spite of soaring share prices

It feels like a lifetime ago, but only five months have passed since investors thought Canada's two biggest copper miners were at risk of collapsing. In mid-January, Teck Resources Ltd.'s long-term notes traded as low as 38.5 cents on the dollar. Meanwhile, the debt of First Quantum Minerals Ltd., one of its chief rivals, traded between…

Daily News Roundup: My Memory Foam Mattress Is Threatening Me With Blackmail

Business & Finance:
Almost everyone things the British Pounds days are numbered (Bloomberg)
Amid massive sell-off, fears of another Lehman moment stalk the Square Mile (The Telegraph)
Waiting for the post Brexit storm in American manufacturing (Bloomberg)
Bond yields are pricing in a depression, and the prognosis scarcely looks better if they are wrong (The Telegraph)

Commodities:
Not sustainable at all: Investors stockpiling miners in spite of soaring share prices (Financial Post)
American gasoline demand not as strong as previously thought (Bloomberg)
One winner from Brexit may be oil (Financial Post)
Russian floating nuclear power station undergoes mooring tests (Sputnik News)

International Affairs:
Theresa May leads UK Tory race (Bloomberg)
Australia thrown into limbo as voters erase Turnbull majority (Bloomberg)

Environment:
More than 30% of new energy in U.S. coming from wind power (EVWind.es)
World Bank and India sign $1 billion solar power deal (International Business Times)

Art & Design:
I like it just because it looks cool - the Argo LX 4x4 (Hi Consumption)
The Uncrate x Woolsey land cruiser is crafted better than most furniture (Man of Many)
The very first Shelby Cobra (Uncrate)
Biolite BaseCamp stove can cook pizza (Cool Material)