Wednesday, August 31, 2016

I'm Sorry, But I Don't Think Materials (XLB) and Retail (XRT) Are Going To Make It

Materials ETF (XLB) and Retail ETF (XRT) are both looking a little tired. I like the short/sell signal for XRT more with strong divergence on the MACD indicator and a rapidly approaching bearish EMA crossover.
There's something a little more pathetic though about the appearance of XLB. It's been caught in such a narrow range hasn't moved more than a buck for about a month and a half. It never successfully broke out above my resistance line (with two consecutive closes) and today the momentum indicators turned negative. The EMA's here are also poised to crossover bearishly!

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Daily News Roundup: Being An Adult Is Basically Buying Groceries And Then Ordering Pizza When You Get Home

Business & Finance:
Pound slides below $1.31 and FTSE 100 falters as investors price in 55% chance of Fed rate hike by year end (The Telegraph)
EU-U.S. trade deal in doubt as France urges end to talks (Reuters)
Agrium, Potash Corp of Saskatchewan in merger talks, companies confirm (Financial Post)
Inside one of New York's first marijuana dispensaries (Business Insider)
Commodities:
Iraq pledges to support an OPEC freeze deal (Bloomberg)
"At rock bottom," oil discoveries at 70 year low signal supply shortfall ahead (Financial Post)
Gold set for rare losses this month as metal's popularity dims (Bloomberg)
Shell's U.S. deal to unlock global oil asset disposals (Reuters)

Environment:
World's largest solar power plant develops at speed (Time Out Dubai)
China to boost solar, wind power cooperation with Namibia (China Daily)
South Africa to become wind energy hot spot (Tree Hugger)

International Affairs:
May's Brexit Trigger plan for Parliament (Bloomberg)
Turkey and the West: Don't lose the plot (The Economist)

Art & Design:
Surf-Ace table by Duffy London (Hi Consumption)
Deus Ex Machina Ago TT (Hi Consumption)
Garmin Fenix Chronos (Bless This Stuff)

Monday, August 29, 2016

Africa And The India-Pacific Free Trade Strategy

Japan pledges to invest $30bn in Africa

Japan will invest $30bn in Africa over the next three years, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has pledged at a summit in Kenya. Starting this year, Japan will make a $10bn investment in the continent's infrastructure development, focusing on electrical power, urban transport systems, roads and ports, Abe said at the Saturday opening of the Tokyo International…

Crude Oil: A Review Of Who's Taken' It Up The Tailpipe


Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

Sunday, August 28, 2016

Economic Patriotism, Or Do You Mean "Economic Protectionism?"

Economic patriotism and the Americanization of Canada

One of the wonderful things about a road trip across Canada used to be the myriad character of small towns and cities along the route. Mom and Pop burger stands, coffee shops and fruit sellers were once the best part of the journey. That aspect of Canada has been largely paved over with strip malls that…

Japan, A Country In Transition But A Future For Us All?

Japan in transition: Rest of world watches as country tries negative interest rates to spur economy

The Financial Post presents a six-part series on the tectonic economic transformation underway in Japan. The country is currently home to the world's most rapidly aging population, while declining birth rates and low immigration mean Japan is expected to lose a million people a year in the coming decades TOKYO - Atsushi Hirata, business manager for…

Ridin' The Waves In Oil Price

Oil's wild ride: What causes oil prices to fluctuate

Wild swings in oil prices can have a devastating effect on economies like Alberta, yet supply and demand in the global oil market is dictated by myriad complicated factors, beyond the control of any one country or region. Join Geoffrey Morgan, Brice Hall and Carolyn Hall as they explain why forecasting oil is a mug's game…

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Daily News Roundup: I Would Be Inclined To Grow Up If I Saw It Worked For Everyone Else

Business & Finance:
Real world shows economics has a deflation problem (Bloomberg)
The economic pain of raising Britain's drawbridge (The Economist)
Stocks, bonds, dollar run out of steam before Yellen's speech (Bloomberg)

Commodities:
Russian oil production to hit new record in 2016 (Sputnik News)
Breakthrough could eliminate nuclear waste by 2025 (Daily Caller)
Panama canal revamp eases U.S. LNG access to China (MarketWatch)
Iran signal more willingness for OPEC action to boost oil price (The Star)

International Affairs:
EU faces hard work to overcome Brexit (Bloomberg)
French support for the EU projects is crumbling on the left and right (The Telegraph)
Italy toll rises to 247 as anguish mounts (Bloomberg)
Colombia and the FARC: Ending a half-century of war (The Economist)
These charts show the confusing state of Britain's post-Brexit economy (Business Insider)
Environment:
Glut in solar industry lowers the price (The Tech News)
Global utility scale solar could reach 100GW by year's end (Energy Matters)

Art & Design:
The musket by Hazan Motorworks (Hi Consumption)
Its back! NES Classic Edition (Man of Many
Rooms with a view - Texas glass wall house (Man of Many
An inflatable solar powered LED light: Luci Outdoor 2.0 (Werd)
 

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Storm Clouds Brewing On The Market Horizon

George Orwell's 'negative yield' doublespeak portends another financial crisis brewing

If you've never read George Orwell's 1984, you're missing out on one positively Nostrodamic example of a predicted future accurately unfolding. From TVs that listen and watch (the Internet) to the pursuit of power for power's sake, the 1949 novel that envisioned a future of perpetual warfare and omnipresent government surveillance has materialized in large part.…

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Materials (XLB): Key Breakout Today

Materials Select ETF (XLB) made a key breakout today putting in a bullish long/buy signal after consolidating in a very slender ascending triangle. I've just started following XLB but my momentum indicators are about to bullishly crossover and my long-term indicators are all bullishly aligned. Furthermore, EMA's have just kissed and not bearishly crossing over. The theme here I think is important though because it can be applied to the broader market, and that's the dips should still be bought. We have to rationally over-ride every urge we have to bet against this market regardless of what we read regarding P/E ratio's and VIX purchases. I agree with all arguments that this charade has gone on long enough but change needs to come slowly in small bites that can be readily understood and disseminated by the market in the least destabilzing way. Today, an article was put on Reuters ("Eight Fed Banks Urge Discount Rate Increase") that I think signals this gradual change in direction.

Monday, August 22, 2016

Real Estate (DRN) Bursting Out Of The Gate

Noticed this gem this evening for Real Estate ETF DRN which had a not-so-special day and with EMA's bearishly aligned people could be forgiven for being a little down on it. I  have two problems with this: one, a bullish declining wedge has formed, and two, the volume on DRN was disproportionately high (273,000 shares today against an average of around 60,000). Something's up and I'm not sure what but I wouldn't bet against a move like this!

The Next Bubble To Burst: Delinquincy In Student Loans Rising Sharply

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

Central Banks "Misrepresenting" Information. I'm Shocked, Shocked At The Gambling Here

Financial repression, misinformation increasingly the principle tools of central banks

Financial repression, or the practice by governments and their agents of reducing government debt by reducing interest rates paid to savers and devaluing currency over longer terms essentially shifts the burden of repayment onto the backs of the public. First described by economists Carmen Reinhart et al in a paper entitled "The Liquidation of Government Debt",…

Previously Untouchable, Canadian Banks Face The Backlash Of Non-Performing Oil Sands Loans

Canadian banks face important credit test as Q3 earnings approach

Canadian banks are expected to report higher earnings in the second quarter, but analysts expect the sector will continue to underperform the broader market due to weakness in both the economy and oil prices. One area of ongoing focus is the credit market, where higher oil prices since mid-February should provide a lift to energy-related credit…

Sunday, August 21, 2016

At Least We Know This For Sure

David Rosenberg: The two things we know for sure in an unpredictable year

When the Chinese tell us "may you live in interesting times," well, the times are certainly interesting. We have a very unusual situation on our hands: a six-quarter U.S. profits recession that saw earnings drop 20 per cent and the stock market rally six per cent. That doesn't happen every day that much I can assure…

Saturday, August 20, 2016

Daily News Roundup: I'm On The Michael Phelps Diet Minus The Swimming

Business & Finance:
Treasuries decline with stocks after hawkish Williams remarks (Bloomberg)
The 19 stocks the 841 hedge funds think will get demolished (Business Insider)
Research finds that traders looking at prices use parts of the brain associated with reading other people (Bloomberg)

Commodities:
Shale drillers party like it's 2014 as oil finds bull market (Bloomberg)
Oil: From bear to bull market in 16 days (The Telegraph)
Get ready for a bust in the lithium boom amid race to supply Tesla's batteries (Financial Post)
Oil rig climbs for 8th week in a row (Business Insider)

International Affairs:
More trouble brewing on the Crimean border (The Economist)
U.K. planning to trigger Brexit action by April (Bloomberg)
Turkey is convinced the West was behind the attempted coup (The Economist)
India and China vie for greater share in oil sales in Myanmar (Sputnik News)

Environment:
America's first offshore wind farm is almost ready (Fast Co Exist)
New low solar price record set in Chile - 2.91 cents per kilowatt hour (Clean Technica)
GE is building America's first offshore wind farm with turbines twice as tall as the Statue of Liberty (Business Insider)
Art & Design:
Estream portable water power generator (Hi Consumption)
8 great moments in drug history (Cool Material)
BMXing on the salt flats of Bolivia (Man of Many)

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Bull Flag In Biotechnology (XBI)

A bull flag has emerged in Biotechnology ETF XBI and has found support at the middle Keltner band. Today was a low volume day but the turn was nice, especially as my super-long term indicator MACD (55,144,0) just turned positive a few days ago and has been steadily rising. Solid support has been found here and the increase in crude oil prices along with the Fed's comments the other day (which effectively negates any interest rate increase until December with the bookmakers putting it at 18% before November) we might see a pop in XBI.

And Not Just In Japan, A Sign Of Things To Come

Japan in transition: The world's biggest mobilization of elderly workers is underway

The Financial Post presents a six-part series on the tectonic economic transformation underway in Japan. The country is currently home to the world's most rapidly aging population, while declining birth rates and low immigration mean Japan is expected to lose a million people a year in the coming decades. TOKYO - Keiko Suzuki is increasingly seen…

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

Clive Maund: The U.S. Dollar, The Year Thus Far, And What Comes Next


THE DOLLAR INDEX and HELICOPTER MONEY...

We have already figured out that, faced with the choice between doing “helicopter money” and allowing a deflationary implosion to occur, those in power will elect the former, because it buys them more time by keeping the system limping along for longer, and we have now arrived at the stage where it will be one or other. The market has already figured it out too, which is why gold and silver have started a new bullmarket.

If you were to decide to alleviate your own personal liquidity problems by setting up a printing press in your backyard and doing copious print runs of $100 bills, you would be branded a counterfeiter and sent to jail, probably for quite a long time. Yet the government does this shamelessly, and uses the euphemism “Quantitative Easing”. It should be called what it is – counterfeiting – and it is a fraud perpetrated against the entire population of the country, whose buying power is reduced as a result. This fraud was made possible back in 1971 when Nixon got rid of the Gold Standard, opening the door to reckless Keynesian fiat money expansion. This ruling should have been overturned and all those responsible for it sent to jail. By comparison Watergate was a minor misdemeanor, although few realized it at the time.

The stark choices now facing Central Banks, governments and the elites themselves as the entire mess of debt and derivatives created by decades of fiat excess threatens to bury them, boil down to just two, both are which are awful. One is to simply let it collapse under its weight like a neutron star in a deflationary implosion, which would be dramatic and rapid, and the other is to hit the afterburners and go for broke with so called “helicopter money”, where they print ever more money to maintain liquidity and service debt etc until the system consumes itself in a hyperinflationary firestorm. This is the logical route for them to take because it buys them more time than the deflationary implosion option. The proposal for helicopter money has until recently been laughed at as absurd, but now in their desperation it is being seriously talked about.

It is important to understand that Helicopter Money will be a whole order of magnitude higher than what we have seen so far in the form of Quantitative Easing, which is why it is called Helicopter Money. They won’t call it that of course, just as they wouldn’t call QE by its true name, counterfeiting – it will be ascribed some sanitized name that will make it more acceptable to a dumbed down and passive populace.

A key point to understand is that the impending helicopter money policy will not be confined to the United States, it will be global, just as QE was, with Europe and Japan involved in a big way, and, anxious to keep its currency from rising, China can be expected to join in too. What this means is that the money supply will be expanding at an ever increasing rate all around the world. You don’t need to be a genius to figure out that the result of this will accelerating inflation and an increasingly rapid loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies generally. This will stoke a major bullmarket not just in gold and silver, which has already started, but in a wide range of tangibles, such as base metals, agricultural land and collectibles, and these bullmarkets will run regardless of the state of economies.
A big question concerning many investors and even ordinary citizens is what effect this new helicopter money will have on the dollar. This question has two answers depending on whether you are talking about the dollar itself and its purchasing power, or whether you are talking about the dollar in comparison with other major world currencies. The 1st question is easy to answer – the dollar will lose purchasing power at an ever increasing rate – so if you want to maintain the purchasing power of your money, you will have to invest in things with intrinsic value and/or whose supply is finite, that maintain their value no matter what. The 2nd one, which is really the subject of this article, is by no means so easy to answer. It all depends on the rate at which the money supply is expanded, and by this we aren’t just referring to cash in circulation but all electronic money created by the Treasury, such as is used by the Fed to buy up Treasuries to stop this market from collapsing, in comparison with the rate it is expanded in other nations and trading blocs, such as Europe and Japan. If the US is expanding its money supply faster than the others, the dollar index will drop, if slower, it will rise, and the timing of this expansion will also be a determining factor. Another factor that will have a big impact on the relative performance of the dollar will be the rate at which the global dollar carry trade continues to unwind – it was the carry trade unwind that drove a massive rally in the dollar in 2014 – 2015 when the Fed duped the markets and global investors into thinking that it was going to raise interest rates, and then ended up doing one token rise so that they couldn’t be accused of lying.

Now we will turn to the technical aspects of the outlook for the dollar index. The fact that it is impossible to determine in advance who will start the helicopter money drops, and the timing and magnitude of drops by different countries and trading blocs, means that it is impossible to predict fundamentally whether the dollar index will rise or fall, and this is reflected in the charts for the dollar index, which show that a giant trading range has formed from the Spring of 2015 that could break in either direction. However, even though we don’t know which way it will break, the fact that support and resistance at the top and bottom of the range are clearly defined means that we can be reasonably sure which way the wind is going to blow when the index breaks out, one way or the other, and a crucial point for Precious Metal sector investors or other investors in Hard Assets to take note of here is that even if the dollar breaks out upside to start an uptrend, it shouldn’t provide too much of a headwind, because global currency dilution will mean all major global currencies are going down the drain in lockstep.

The conclusion to all is that we must now wait for the starting gun to be fired marking the final stage in the fiat “race to the bottom”, and see who will have the dubious honor of being the first to make helicopter money drops, and to see which way the dollar index breaks out from it giant trading range. Just how dire the situation is becoming is neatly symbolized by the hopeless choice facing American voters at the next election - between a blue collar billionaire with the taste of a Russian oligarch and a marionette of the Military - Industrial complex, who will start World War 3 if she wins – so much for democracy!

End of article.

Monday, August 15, 2016

Well I Think Energy (XLE) Has Been Here Before: The $69.50 Barrier

I posted a month ago the resistance at $69.50 on Energy ETF XLE that was being approached and looked like a good long/buy if it every got above it. Any break I said, would have been a bullish sign. Well, as fate would have it XLE retraced like a lot of resource stocks did at that time, and like those other resource stocks, Gold seems most notable in my mind, have been stuck in a horizontal trading range. The larger ascending channel that XLE is in is still valid and looking very strong but before our ascent can continue with energy and energy stocks $69.50 must be broken. I had a personal long/buy (blue arrow) at around $67.00 and told myself I'd lighten up when we got close to this overhead resistance in case it retraced again but that I'd resume buying once we had a confirmed break above it. Things that I like about this ETF right now are that the EMA's are positioned appropriately and my favorite momentum indicator is about to turn positive.

Since Everyone Else Is Posting This

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

Just What We Need, More Ambiguity In The Market

U.S. election, Brexit may weigh on rate moves on both sides of the border

OTTAWA - Two years ago, the global collapse in oil prices rattled financial markets and choked resources-reliant economies like Canada's. But by late 2015 much of the damage seemed to have been contained and signs of stability were beginning to appear. The U.S. central bank, for example, had already set a course for a series of…

Saturday, August 13, 2016

Daily News Roundup: If You're Holding Hands With Someone And Not Close-Lining People On The Street Together, That's A Pretty Big Wasted Opportunity

Business & Finance:
Bonds rise, dollar falls as retail data cast doubt on rate hike (Bloomberg)
Sizing up the Brazil bounce: stocks given up for dead may be on the way to better days (Financial Post)
Construction is in recession as U.K. economy weakens (The Telegraph)
Recession is already here for a crucial part of the British economy, and it is only going to get worse (Business Insider)

Commodities:
Thieves steal $150,000 of maple syrup in overnight heist (Financial Post)
Oil prices surge on Saudi minister's "talk of action" (Al Arabiya)
Qatargas eyes increased LNG supply to Persian Gulf, wider Middle East (Hellenic Shipping News)

Environment:
Major ports in India go green with solar and wind energy setups (First Post)
India considers large-scale floating solar power projects (Clean Technica)

International Affairs:
Brexit's day of reckoning could come this week (Bloomberg)
Vladimir Putin fires his powerful right-hand man (The Economist)
High-risk "shadow" credit in China put at $2.9 trillion by IMF (Bloomberg)
Dollar bulls bruised again as Fed rate-increase bets fade anew (Bloomberg)
Pound slips below $1.30 as IMF warns China's credit growth is unsustainable (The Telegraph)
Egypt reaches a deal with IMF (The Economist)

Art & Design:
23 incredible tiny homes from around the world (Business Insider)
The most beautiful house in the world: Tom Ford's Santa Fe Ranch (Hi Consumption)
The Edgeland House (Uncrate)
The H3 House (Uncrate)

Friday, August 12, 2016

Weak Setups In Precious Metals (SLV, $HUI)

Precious metals continue to dominate many people's thinking and focus but recently in the low-volume month of August some pivots have been noted. Jack Chan has been a particularly vocal proponent of a 'healthy' retracement in gold and Clive Maund recently wrote ("Signs Are Silver Bull Market Is Consolidating") about some downward pressure in silver, as have I, and it could be that we are witnessing the beginning of it now (I think I have written these exact words once already in the last four months). A bear flag setup appears to be developing in Silver ETF SLV and the Gold Bugs Index $HUI appears to be putting in a bearish rising wedge.



Thursday, August 11, 2016

I Think There Is More Than Just "Questions" Regarding Oil's Medium Term Future

Oil markets expected to reach balance by 2017, but plenty of questions remain

CALGARY - Global demand for oil could outpace supply in the second half of 2016, the International Energy Agency said Thursday, indicating an eventual balance in oil markets that have been brimming with crude for nearly two years. The Paris-based agency said in its monthly oil market forecast that it foresees "essentially no oversupply" in its…

Crude Oil (USO): Giant Head-And-Shoulders Forming?

Crude Oil ETF USO has been really interesting since the start of the year. On the heels of a catastrophic fall due to inter-regional geopolitics and market share wars it has made a nice comeback, and yet I sometimes left wondering why. Even though U.S. rig counts have stabilized the world is still swimming in cheap oil and all offshore storage is currently filled to capacity. I therefore find it interesting that a massive head-and-shoulder patter may be developing in oil signalling a possible renewed fall. Upper resistance for this right shoulder is about $10.80. At the same time there's a possible massive ascending channel that just put in it's first hit at $9.20 and ready to make another wave of ascent. My longer term momentum indicators are unfortunately in favor of the first scenario!

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

When Smart Money Goes Dumb

David Rosenberg: If you think this market is confusing, wait until you see what the 'smart money' is doing

Okay, this really is one weird market. I am looking at the hedge fund proxy market positioning from the latest Commitments of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the results are startling. I'm quite sure I have not seen such levels of confidence on one hand, and cognitive dissonance on the other, before…

Correction Posted: U.S. Treasuries ETF TLT

Looking back at my work from a few days ago I wasn't satisfied with how I left things on the U.S. Treasuries ETF TLT. I was sloppy and the I think biased by the news on Friday but I would now like to post a correction to that chart by now saying TLT is a condensing triangle. Condensing triangles can break either way but looking at MACD the divergence that's building is hinting that Treasuries may break upwards. Regardless, I have closed my short position until a clearer picture emerges.

Monday, August 08, 2016

China (FXI): Starting To Concern Me

Don't get me wrong, I've been creamed by this market constantly melting up. It's simply too over-valued. Frankly, it was over-valued three or four years ago. Ascents in the market need to built on strong optimism and yet I (and many others I expect) haven't figured out what this market has been built on except market mechanics, inflated rhetoric, and the fear that any movement downwards would reveal the system for what it truly is, empty and failed. I've been looking at the China ETF FXI and it's looking like it could climb a little further to around the $36.50 region, but a very strong ascending wedge has appeared and I quite like it. This is something thought that might require some patience as there's still two good weeks left before this begins to get tight. The break above $35.75 was quite bullish but what also concerns me are that EMA's are getting further and further spread out. As always this is just a theory as we haven't yet seen any divergence yet on the MACD, but with the general over-valuation of the market I think FXI should be on your medium-term radar.

Sunday, August 07, 2016

Treasuries (TLT): Had Enough?

Treasuries ETF TLT has, along with the wider market, had a fantastic run but the jobs report from this past week has introduced a 'wild-card.' Although I believe the market may continue to climb due to this robust and healthy economic indicator sign, investors may start to re-evaluate their stance towards T-bills which might begin to fall due to fear of an interest rise after last week's report is now being in the deck. In fairness they have had an unassailable ascent since early 2015 since the last retracement took place. Looking at the weekly charts one can see how far apart the EMA(13) versus the EMA(34) have become which can never be sustained long term.
On the daily charts we find a declining triangle which could break to the downside and EMA's appearing poised to bearishly crossover. I think this is a significant development as the EMA's have only crossed over bearishly twice since July 2015 (not including one false break below in April of this year). The reason I began paying attention to the bearish implications of Treasuries at the moment is that one of my favorite long-term indicators, MACD Hist (25,170,25), is just about to take it's first step below zero in three and half months.

Saturday, August 06, 2016

2016 So Far: Precious Metals, China, and Brexit

Podcast: Precious Metals analyst Lawrence Williams on gold and silver's price moves

Lawrence Williams is a long-time writer and analyst of precious metals markets and publisher of LawrieOnGold.com, a U.K.-based website that provides coverage of geopolitical and economic events as they pertain to gold, silver and to a lesser extent, platinum group metals. Listen to the podcast interview with Bruce Linton: http://wpmedia.business.financialpost.com/2016/08/lawrie-williams-160727-podcast.mp3 Transcript: James West: Lawrie, thank you…

Population, Wealth and India/China/U.S.

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

Friday, August 05, 2016

Daily News Roundup: Don't Do School, Eat Your Drugs, Stay In Vegetables

Business and Finance:
Cheap labor is the big winner in U.S. jobs data (Bloomberg)
Monte di Paschi clean-up would still leave bank in danger zone (Bloomberg)
FTSE 100 smashes 6,800 as investors cheer post-Brexit stimulus package and bumper U.S. jobs data (The Telegraph)


International Affairs:
Tensions in Turkey are spilling over to Germany (The Economist)
Will China really turn off the lights in Britain? (Bloomberg)
Trump in the dumps (The Economist)

Commodities:
Several OPEC members may resume talks on oil production freeze in fall (Sputnik News)
China's coal use peaked in 2013 to 2014 (Hellenic Shipping News)
Gold equity overdue (AU Report)
Cheap oil has killed nearly 200,000 U.S. jobs (Clickon Detroit)
China's record gasoline exports signal worsening domestic glut (Hellenic Shipping News)

Environment:
Mercedes is about to unveil an entire fleet of electric vehicles (Bloomberg)
Africa battles to get big solar projects on grid (Reuters)

Art& Design:
The Triumph Rocket (Hi Consumption)
The Aston Martin/Red Bull Hypercar (Man Of Many)
The most beautiful car ever created, the Ford GT 40 Mk1 (Uncrate)
What was once lost is now found, Elvis' BMW 507 (Uncrate)

Monday, August 01, 2016

Energy Sector (XLE): I Really Don't Like Energy

I've posted articles on the subject from a variety of sources over the last ten days and speculated around that time either Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) was either going to have to break out of the horizontal resistance at $69.50 bullishly or risk horizontal movement. The latter ended up happening and I wrote about my change in position in XLE from bullish to bearish about the second last week of August when that horizontal movement began pinching the EMA's to the point that a bearish crossover occurred today.

Now that the bearish crossover has occured an expanding megaphone appears to be developing. We can see from some descents in June a support line is now in place with some proposed support areas at $64.00 and $63.00 with support ultimately happening at $61.00 (which also happens to be the expanded channel support line).
Remember the weekly chart which I drew some time ago that showed an ascending bearish wedge heading into resistance at $70? Well, I remember drawing it but I don't remember taking my own advice (I really got to learn to do that someday). Look at the indicators for it! This week so far shows a calamitous fall with steep declines on the momentum indicators. I don't this will break $50 but a retracement that might surprise everyone is an outcome I'm quietly evaluating.