Monday, October 31, 2016

No One Should Be Suprised By Oil's Fall (Come On, I've Been Complaining For A Month)

Oil Prices Fall Again As OPEC Can’t Agree On Production Cuts

As the FBI announced a fresh probe into Hillary Clinton’s emails Friday, the stock market sentiment turned negative, with stocks reversing gains made the day before. But crude oil prices were hit with a double whammy as a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could not agree on production cuts, again. Global…

Investing In Environmental Technology Is Proving Profitable

Solar Power Brightens Corporate America's Balance Sheet

This article originally appeared on the Motley Fool. The decision to install solar panels can be driven by factors like a desire to use clean energy or an interest in becoming more self-sufficient when it comes to electricity. But when large companies choose to go solar, they're doing so based on the dollars and cents of…

Sunday, October 30, 2016

Next Week Is A Critical Week For Emerging Markets (EEM), Small Caps (IWM), S&P (SPY), U.S. Treasuries (TLT) And Gold Miners (GDX)

Sunday ETF Quintet

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Just nine days until election day, everyone. I’m sure we’ll be glad when it’s all over (more or less), but I think we can all at least agree it’s entertaining for the moment.

I thought I’d just thumb through a few ETF charts, since the market is still very “stuck” and there’s not a lot of dynamism to point out. This is short and sweet – five charts – so here we go: first is the emerging markets, which had a nice rally off its basing pattern (tinted) but seems to be getting turned away by a much larger trendline (red arrow shows resistance). The pattern for the Chinese ETF, symbol FXI, is rather similar.
Precious metals miners are a favorite sector of mine these days, and the GDX and GDXJ patterns have to be two of the cleanest charts in existence today. Gold might battle its way back to about $1300, but I think it’s in trouble, a prospective rally notwithstanding.
I was heartened to see that, at long last, the small caps have exhibited a failed bullish breakout pattern. An identical situation exists with the mid-caps, symbol MDY, not shown here.
The much larger ETF SPY has yet to break its own support. Of course, it broke its 2016 uptrend a while ago (as did just about everything else), but the next bearish goal, a break of the tinted area, remains to be had. On the ES, this corresponds to 2100.25:
Lastly, bonds are breaking down badly as well. They, too, have a failed bullish breakout now, and should they break the area I’ve tinted below, the Fed’s desperate desire to create inflation and raise interest rates will be fulfilled. But I think “be careful what you wish for” applies.
In point of fact, as desperately as the central bankers of the world seem to want to create inflation, I would gently remind you that those same governments are neck-deep in debt unlike the world has ever seen before, and if you want the entire planet to drown in a financial bloodbath, having steadily climbing interest rates would do the trick nicely.

Makes Me Feel Better About My Own Investment Progress These Past Two Years

Two Years Going Nowhere

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Does the market seem boring to you? Stuck? Trapped? Ya know, there may be a good reason for that. Here’s the two year change for the Dow Jones Composite………….ZERO.

Saturday, October 29, 2016

A Flash Crash That Merely Accelerated The Inevitable

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

More Signs Of A Global Slowdown

Steel and coal companies reach capacity reduction annual targets early

China is expected to reach the annual targets set for cutting overcapacity ahead of schedule this year, but pressure of excessive production suggests no easing up on the continued efforts. China is expected to hit its annual target to reduce steel production by the end of…

Friday, October 28, 2016

India: The Fifth Asian Tiger Waiting To Roar

Despite Fast-Growing Economy, India Struggles to Create Jobs

India’s main Hindu festival of lights is just days away, but there is little cheer for 35-year-old Kali Charan. For a week, the daily-wage laborer has hung on the side of a busy street intersection in the business hub of Gurgaon hoping that building contractors or home owners will stop by to seek his services. He…

With Crude's Fall All The Majors Have Already Run For The Hills

'Long aftershock': Big Oil is retreating from Western Canada during two-year downturn

When an oil recovery does take hold in Western Canada, it will have to make do with a diminished presence of global oil players. Companies such as Total S.A., Statoil ASA, Conoco Phillips, BP PLC, Chevron Corp., Repsol S.A. and many others retreated sharply from Canada during the two-year downturn, slashing staff, selling assets and dumping…

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Another Hint That Crude Will Fall

China crude inventories rise month on month

A worker fills up a car with fuel at a gas station in Lianyungang city, East China's Jiangsu province, Feb 9, 2015. [Photo/Xinhua] BEIJING - China's crude inventories rose 2.46 percent month on month at the end of September, data showed on Wednesday. Although crude imports stayed almost flat last month, crude stockpiles posted a month-on-month…

Oh God Not Again, I Thought We Solved This Greek Thing!?!

Eurozone Approves Another Massive Bailout for Greece

Officials with the Eurozone countries on Tuesday approved a 2.8 billion euro bailout for Greece, the third such bailout delivered to the country since it spiraled into economic crisis six years ago. "Today's decision to disburse 2.8 billion to Greece is a sign that the Greek people are steadily making progress in reforming their country," European…

I Think It Was "Late In The Game" For This Market A Year Ago

David Rosenberg: All signs are flashing this market is 'late in the game'

Late in the game: that is precisely where we are. And it's not even an opinion any more. It is a market fact. In the Financial Post's new series we go for a spin around the block with Canada's most influential business leaders in finance, entertainment, and tech The TSX has not made a new high…

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

I Think It's Going To Be Hard Bringing Bikes Back To China

Bringing back 'Kingdom of Bicycles'

New privately operated bike-sharing programs are hoping to reignite the public's love of two-wheeled travel. Luo Wangshu reports. Related story: Growing demand drives investor sentiment In the…

Yields Are At An Inflection Point So What Is Next For U.S. Treasuries (TLT)?

Treasuries are at a crucial support area at the moment while the market decides what happens with yields, but which are expected to reach 2.00% by the end of the year. This should be bearish for Treasury ETF TLT except that at the moment it's putting in a nice little bullish declining wedge. I put a long/buy signal in yesterday which may have been a little premature because a fall to around $131.50 first seems most likely and can be used a 'stop.' A rise in TLT now would also confirm the overall downtrend so don't think this counter-trend move is a reversal for Treasuries. My momentum indicators look a little tired but are showing divergence so just keep $131.50 as your stop because this rise may just fizzle out instead. 

Without An Agreement By OPEC I Think Energy Could Fall Further Than This

Slippery When Wet

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Since the highest concentration of my positions is in energy, I’m persistently interested in the price of crude oil. It seems to have finally, after weeks of being range-bound, broken to the downside. However, I don’t think the downside potential is that vast – – – probably something confined within the zone I’ve tinted below.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Even Natural Gas (UNG) Has Suprised Me

I called a sell/short on Natural Gas ETF UNG on the 17th of October and that is exactly what has happened, but even it's fall has surprised me! I was expecting support around $8.80 but today it smashed through that and now appears to have broken the long-term uptrend established back in May. The gap down was quite serious today and so a small retracement is expected but this appears to be the beginning of a major downtrend for UNG. The other worrying aspect about today's move was the volume which was well above-average.

Tim Is Also Finding Energy Unappetizing

Crude Entrapment

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Hey, everyone, just two weeks until we elect President Pandering Pantsuit! Are you excited as I am? Yeah, that’s what I thought.

Anyway, my largest concentration of shorts remains in the energy sector. Crude has been in a tight little jail cell ranging from 49.62 to 52.22 for weeks now. We’ve got a shot of breaking this range, but even if we do, there’s strong support at around $48 where that blue trendline is. All the same, the energy short charts look a lot better than this one, so I’m sticking with them.

Iraq Is Not Abiding To Voluntary Cuts, So I Think The Answer Is 'No'

Can the oil market be controlled?

It seems OPEC is trying to increase prices again and strengthen oil producing economies. Some of the organisation's energy ministers met their counterpart from non-OPEC member Russia on Sunday. The ministers want to see greater cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC countries to stabilise the oil market. Prices fell to an all-time low in January. They're still…

Anti-Globalization Wildfire Spreads

CETA the canary in the coalmine of international free trade

Here's something you don't hear every day: the eyes of the world are on Wallonia. This week, we'll find out if the European Union and the tiny southern region of Belgium can work something out to salvage the Canada-Europe Trade Agreement (CETA), which had been nearing ratification before Wallonia's government voted to block it on Oct.…

Monday, October 24, 2016

Life After Death For The Unused Oil Wells Of Canada

Putting Alberta's idle wells to work could heat up the energy patch

CALGARY – Tens of thousands of non-productive oil and gas wells scar Alberta's landscape and their numbers are growing as the province's brutal recession drags on. The most recent count from the Alberta Energy Regulator shows there were 84,100 inactive wells in the province in September, which is up from 77,600 in March. Meanwhile, the number…

"Stability" Will Only Be Coming In A Months Time After OPEC Meeting

Quarterly earnings season could show 'resemblance of stability' in embattled oilpatch

CALGARY - The embattled Canadian oil and gas sector could show a rare sign of optimism this week as companies begin releasing their quarterly earnings reports. Oil prices have risen gradually in the past months as markets show signs of moving closer to balance, leaving analysts to expect perhaps the first signs of healing for hard-hit…

I'm Betting No Sustained Fall Until After The Election

The Lion and the Cobra

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I confess I’m getting very impatient for some downside action. This damned market cannot seem to sustain a selloff, although I suppose I’m supposed to be grateful that we’re not lurching to lifetime highs anymore.

Every index is sporting the same two vital elements: (a) a broken trendline which began early this year (b) a cluster of recent activity, in some instances in the form of a triangle, which needs to be broken in order to really get things falling. Here, for instance, is the Russell 2000 showing the broken trendline (red circle) and the “stall zone” (tinted):
The same is shown for the Dow Composite, which has the aforementioned triangle pattern:
It wasn’t that long ago that mini-panics were becoming fairly regular, which you can see by way of the VIX:
For the past nine months, however, we’ve been in a stinking dry spell, without a single instance of a VIX getting even above the 20s. Indeed, the highest we got was only about 27 when the Brexit surprised happened, and since then (red arrow) it’s just been deathly.
C’mon, planet Earth, can’t you throw Tim a terror bone? A surprise Trump victory? A nuclear attack? Give me something to work with here, people!

Sunday, October 23, 2016

Blacklash Will Hurt China The Most, Can The Economy Adapt?

China: Soon the most visible victim of deglobalisation

When you buy anything, anywhere in the world, there is a good chance that it comes from China. We all know China as the great export powerhouse of the 21st century. But China's exports hit an all-time high in December, 2015 and (ignoring season fluctuations) have been declining ever since. China is increasingly turning inward for…

Deal Raises More Than Antitrust Questions Like "Why?" and "What's The Point?"

AT&T to buy Time Warner for $85 billion; deal raises antitrust questions

AT&T made a deal to buy Time Warner for $85 billion, which would make it the nation's largest entertainment company and a major force in Hollywood, a person familiar with the deal said Saturday. The agreement, which was sealed at breakneck speed and expected to be announced late Saturday, accelerates the wave of consolidation in the…

This Is How The Machines Really Begin To Take Over

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

If History Is Any Guide, This Deal Can Only Go Well

Time Warner Mega-Merger

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So this is a sign that companies are value-priced, right?
Allow me to offer a gentle reminder of how awesome things went last time Time Warner did a mega-merger with another firm…………synergies galore, baby!

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Hmmmm, That's Great Sweetheart...

Housing prices begin to stabilize in key cities

Hard landing in property market unlikely following cooling measures, say analysts Home price increases in key cities may ease after a series of cooling measures take effect, though a hard landing of the market is unlikely, said analysts. New home prices in 63 out of 70 cities that the National Bureau of Statistics monitors gained in…

I Can't Get The L.L. Cool J Song Out Of My Head, "Don't Call It A Comeback"

Precision Drilling rehires 1,000 people as oilfield activity improves

CALGARY - Precision Drilling Corp., one of Canada's largest drilling companies, has brought back 1,000 employees and begun increasing the price it charges customers for its specialized rigs in a sign that oilfield activity levels are beginning to recover after a prolonged downturn. President and CEO Kevin Neveu said during an earnings call Friday the company…

OPEC: Frenemies Working Together?!?! What's Next, Trump Conceeding Defeat?

Is frazzled Saudi Arabia unwittingly handing out a lifeline to rivals?

The famously fractious OPEC members seem to be getting along just fine these days. Kingpin Saudi Arabia has deftly manoeuvred to bring recalcitrant members and even OPEC 'frenemy' Russia on the same page to lay the groundwork for a deal in Vienna on Nov. 30. But after failing to win the market share war during the…

Friday, October 21, 2016

Weakness Getting Bought Up

It’s Not Enough

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Damn this market. Every time we see a little bit of weakness, it’s still getting bought up. This morning, we opened down over 12 points. As I type this, it’s pushing against the selling, having trimmed its loss down to merely 8. It’s getting quite exasperating, because we need to cut through the entire “drop zone” I’ve tinted in green below to reach the promised land (which is looking not-particularly-promised), shown with the support line.
On a wholly different topic, you Twitter users out there might want to check out the trending hashtag #TrumpBookReports, which are tweets about books written in Trump prose.

More Evidence Of The Seriousness Of Bad Loans Mounting In China

Minsheng 'may establish bad-loan asset company'

Slowing economy is resulting in growth in volume of NPLs China Minsheng Banking Corp is studying plans to set up an bad-loan asset management company, as the Chinese lender seeks ways to rid itself of some of its $5.7 billion of non-performing loans (NPLs), people with knowledge of the matter said. Minsheng Bank is seeking guidance…

Bullish Engulfing Pattern In Biotechnology (XBI)

I actually put this arrow in last night on the Biotechnology ETF XBI but things are looking overextended and some of my shorter-term indicators were bullishly aligning. The other reason I thought things were going to take a turn upwards was because of how perfectly it stopped at a long term support line just below $59.00. In addition to all this there is divergence on the RSI(5) with a lower high being put in. Please be aware of the fact that this is no way presaging some grand resurgence in biotechnology as the overall trend seems to be down but it does seem like this is a bounce that people could take advantage of.

Inflation Doesn't Always Help Your Export Market

Manufacturers fail to profit from weak yuan

Chinese machinery manufacturers have found it difficult to profit from the recent depreciation of the renminbi in the short term, company executives said. Exhibitors from the machinery sector at the 120th Canton Fair in Guangzhou, Guangdong province, said the yuan depreciation, to its lowest level in six years against the dollar, had limited effect in boosting…

Well This Must Be A Little Awkward For The IMF

US official pushes for IMF reform, praises AIIB

A senior US Treasury official expects the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to have a chief from outside Europe in the not near future. Nathan Sheets, the US undersecretary of treasury for international affairs, was talking about IMF reform on Tuesday when he was asked if IMF managing director would come from emerging economies such as China…

Draghi Stands Pat

European Central Bank leaves stimulus measures unchanged

There were no new stimulus measures announced by the European Central Bank on Thursday. At their latest meeting ECB policymakers kept interest rates unchanged and deep in negative territory. ECB President Mario Draghi and his colleagues also said the bond buying programme to pump money into the eurozone economy will continue at the same level –…

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Really, Theresa? Really?!?!

The price of Brexit is going up, whether Theresa May likes it or not

When Theresa May, the fill-in U.K. prime minister, earlier this month came out hard against immigration and for British sovereignty in any new deal with the European Union, the reaction provided a glaring example of the widening disconnect between populist politics and economic "common sense." In her Oct. 2 address to the Conservative conference, May promised…

Energy (XLE) Showing New Upward Channel

We recently called the ascending wedge in Energy ETF XLE a few days ago absolutely perfectly and support was found like clockwork at the EMA(34). Now an upward channel is developing in XLE, albeit a rather narrow one. Overhead resistance is at around $72.50 and if that were to be breached a further strong thrust should be expected. The alignment of the EMA's right now could not be more perfect with the EMA(9) and EMA(13) both directing upwards. The OPEC agreement is a little wobbly but energy prices have rallied impressively since.

Everyone Loses With Protectionism

Philip Cross: It's Canada vs. the protectionists in the new world trade wars

As a trading nation, Canada has much to lose if protectionism - clearly on the rise in the U.S. and Europe - gains more ground. Protectionist sentiment reflects a misunderstanding of how trade benefits the economy. The benefit does not come from a mercantilist maximizing of the surplus of exports over imports. Treating exports as good…

Short Term Thinking Returns To Oil Industry

Peter Tertazkian: With US$60 the new US$90 for oil, long term projects are no longer fashionable

I don't know much about fashion, but I have heard that blue is the new black. And I know that by the time I buy blue, everyone else will be wearing green. In the oil business, modish pundits are now pronouncing, "60 is the new 90," championing the thesis that productivity gains, cost improvements and price…

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Treasuries Have Been Taking A Beating Lately

Bond Rally Forthcoming?

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If there’s one clear downtrend out there (which has been in place for – what – decades now?) it’s interest rates, in spite of all the blather about “normalization” (news flash: it ain’t gonna happen, folks). Here’s the $TNX, with the persistent series of lower highs marked:
Thus, I suspect another bond rally may be forthcoming, since prices have eased all the way back to what I consider a fairly strong zone of support.


Just To Re-Hash The Move In Gold Miners (GDX), But I Did Call This A Week Ago

I have re-posted the article by Tim Knight from Slope of Hope, but in fairness to my permanently shattered ego I did post this exact scenario a week ago (it's just very nice someone agrees with me). Anyway, the divergence on the RSI(5) is complete and there is a gap to fill between $25.00 and $25.50. I've drawn in some interesting overhead resistance areas to keep an eye on, but you can precariously play this as an intermittent long/buy before converting to a short/sell somewhere are around $25.60.

Oil: Still The Biggest Elephant In The Room

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

Good Thing I'm Not The Only One Worried About The Crazy P/E Ratio's Going Around

Value disconnect has this fund manager treading cautiously

Value investors are always cautious, and in many cases, they are looking for change. Without that change, a stock will likely remain cheap and become a value trap. Given that most central banks around the world have kept interest rates at or near zero, money that would normally be in the fixed income market has fled…

Monday, October 17, 2016

Let's Take A Little Break From Natural Gas (UNG)

We made a brilliant call a week or so ago with Natural Gas ETF UNG when it bounced off the support line and then blasted through an overhead resistance at about $9.00. I really like the look of Natural Gas going into the heating season for North America but now an ascending wedge has emerged with divergence on the RSI(5). I think this is going to break down but not aggressively enough to make it a viable short opportunity. I think this is a profit taking opportunity with further buying once the EMA's have had a chance to revert closer to a longer term mean. Please be mindful of the rising support around $9.10 and another support just below it at $9.00, but a very strong longer term ascending channel is emerging.

Deutsche Bank Continues To Take The Hits With Possible Loss Of U.S. Assets

Report: Deutsche Bank will have to give up US interests for deal

Berlin (dpa) - Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest lender, will likely have to give up some of its business interests in the United States if it hopes to negotiate a multibillion-dollar fine down to a manageable level, reported German media Sunday. The most prominent sacrifice would likely be the bank's investment arm in America, according to a…

With Sanctions Lifted, Iran Now Floods European Markets With Energy

Iran eyes bigger stake in European oil market with boosted production

Tehran (dpa) - Iran is planning to increase its oil production from the current 600 million to 1 billion cubic metres per day, the vice minister for petroleum said on Saturday. Hamid-Resa Araghi told IRNA press agency that the country would then be able to supply 30 billion cubic metres of oil to Europe over the…

Portugal Continues To Be The Sick Puppy In The Litter

Portugal lowers 2017 economic outlook

Lisbon (dpa) - The Portuguese government pointed to a more pessimistic view of the economy in its latest budget, revising growth prospects downward for 2017 from 1.8 per cent to 1.5 per cent. In the revised draft budget presented late Friday to parliament, the government also estimates a deficit of 1.6 per cent, 0.2 points higher…

I'm Not Sure If This Violates The Monroe Doctrine

China inks $2b cooperation accords with Haiti

MEXICO CITY - China has signed $2 billion worth of cooperation agreements with Haiti, local media reported on Friday. Planning and Foreign Cooperation Minister Aviol Fleurant said he had signed two memorandums of understanding (MOUs), as part of a trade cooperation agreement with China, the daily Haiti Libre said. The first agreement entails "a project to…

Sunday, October 16, 2016

Chinese Continue To Gobble Up Global Assets

Chinese overseas acquisitions continue despite global decline in VC funding: Report

BEIJING - Global venture capital (VC) investment declined in the third quarter of this year, but Chinese VC investors continued to actively look for overseas acquisitions, according to a recent report. Global VC investment in the third quarter declined 14 percent from the previous quarter, to $24.1 billion, the lowest quarterly funding total since the third…

Trump Isn't Going To Like This

US Treasury rules out China as a currency manipulator

WASHINGTON - US Treasury Department on Friday declared that no major trading partner of the US, including China, met the standard of manipulating its currency, while it retained six economies on a monitoring list created to indicate "unfair" currency practices. In its Semi-Annual Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies, the department said…

Friday, October 14, 2016

The Coming Financial Dislocation With Rising Interest Rates

Beware the interest rate reversal, says this asset manager

Smart investors know that a long-term approach focusing on the true fundamentals of businesses pays off. But in the short-term, sentiment and fund flows can cause dislocations in financial markets. The current low interest rate environment, for example, has caused higher-yielding stocks to trade at elevated levels relative to their historic valuations, primarily because investors are…

Buy The Dip? Why Not, It's Worked In The Past. What Could Go Wrong?

Buy This Dip – the Bullish Perspective

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Note from Tim: in the name of balance, here’s a contribution from New Guy:

I wanted to make a quick case for why I believe the market is offering a favorable buying opportunity today. While some are approaching this recent price weakness as the beginning of a meaningful move lower, I think it is more likely that this is the end of a very mild dip.

My basic argument is that we are in the midst of a very healthy bull market. In a healthy bull market, we should keep taking advantage of oversold, low-risk opportunities until they stop working.

Healthy Bull Market

While major indices hover underneath their all-time highs, the stock market has been even stronger under the surface. This is evident from breadth:
Breadth has been clearly making higher highs and leading price. Breadth measures advancers-decliners and gives a complementary picture of overall market health.

Confirmation in breadth is one necessary ingredient of a healthy bull market. Even as prices have meandered sideways since late September, advances have continued to outpace outflows. Another component of a healthy bull market is leadership from economically sensitive areas. Semiconductors, transports and small-caps have been leading the Nasdaq, the Dow Industrials and the large-cap indices. Advances in which these are leading tend to be more favorable to bullish setups.
1013-2 1013-3 1013-4
The strength in breadth and leading sectors confirm the strong price performance of the stock market since February. Until these falter, traders should give more focus to taking advantage of buying opportunities.

Oversold Market

Some may dispute the characterization of this market as oversold. It can only be said it is oversold through short-term measures.
SPY has opened close to its daily Bollinger band. Sometimes, this can be an area where buyers step in and at other times, it means nothing. An implicit wager on this trade is this signal is more meaningful in healthy market conditions.
NYMO has also reached oversold territory, where a bounce should not be surprising.


I will be aggressively bullish above 211 on SPY. I will look to add stocks with good fundamentals that are under accumulation.

Thursday, October 13, 2016

....But Something About Amazon's Stock Has To Give

It Seems Inevitable

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With P/E of 208 and a pattern that looks like this, it seems to me relatively likely that Amazon will have a much lower price before this year is out, which could make some put owners very happy.
Perhaps you think I’m wrong. Let’s see what Kim Jung Il has to say about that.

As Bezos' Vision Continues, Amazon Continues It's Ascent...

Amazon price target boosted to US$1,000 by Wall Street analyst Inc.'s stock price could soar to $1,000, according to one of Wall Street's top-ranked analysts. Cantor Fitzgerald's Youssef Sqauli raised his price target for the Seattle-based ecommerce giant to US$1,000 from US$835 for to reflect Amazon's retail strength amidst general growth in online shopping, according to a Wednesday investment note. Squali joins analysts from firms…

How There Is Not A Conflict Of Interest Between The Board Of DIrectors For These Two Companies Is Beyond Me

Shareholders to vote on Tesla-SolarCity merger next month

SAN FRANCISCO — Tesla and SolarCity shareholders will meet separately on Nov. 17 to decide whether the companies should merge. SolarCity shareholders will vote in the morning, and Tesla shareholders in the afternoon, according to a new securities filing made public Wednesday. The merger, announced in June and worth about $2.23 billion at current stock values,…

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Buy All Dips In Natural Gas (UNG)

Natural Gas ETF UNG made a critical breakthrough three days ago. On the expected pullback over the coming days it should stay above the support line of $9.08 and I am recommending buying any and all pullbacks. The EMA's look perfectly aligned at the moment with the point-and-figure chart showing an objective of $10.40 and volumes all clustered around the moving average (which it hasn't been for two months). You can have a really tight stop just below the support line should this trend change it's mind after the weekly natural gas report on Thursday.

Probably The Right Time For Oil Companies To Be Taping Into Equity Markets As The Bottom Will Be In

Saudi's oil giant says 2018 the right time for listing

Saudi Arabia oil giant Aramco feels "comfortable" that by 2018 oil prices will have recovered and the market conditions will be right for what could be the world's largest public listing, its chief executive Amin Nasser said. Speaking at the World Energy Congress on Tuesday in Istanbul, Nasser said that all markets were still being considered…

U.S. Election: It's Been A Comb-over And Goldman Sachs

Joe Chidley: Markets don't like Trump, but Clinton isn't necessarily a great friend for them either

Asked during the second presidential debate about the perspicacity of tweeting at 3 a.m., Donald Trump sounded a bit like your great uncle swooning over the interweb and how he can share photos of his lathe work with his buddies. He talked about Twitter as a modern communications platform and how effective it is, and concluded…

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Energy (XLE) Seems To Have Had Enough

Energy did have a strong bounce off the major support line just as we were identifying a descending wedge, but now an ascending wedge has appeared after our rise. I've now put in a sell signal for Energy ETF XLE but the mildly ascending channel is still in play and has been since June. I'm not sure what kind of sell-off is expected here with the EMA's bullishly aligned but pessimistically the EMA(34) should hold. If that should give up, much lower prices could be expected in the near-term. Please remember that no headway has been made recently in creating new highs and so far all we have is $72.00 yesterday and $71.50 a month ago. Russia has been flip-flopping on OPEC output cuts but many analysts have noted that they have been broken in the past with Iraq signalling that it wants to boost output and Nigeria being exempt from production limits all together.

China May Restrain Credit, But Is That Because Of All Those Non-Performing Bank Loans?

China to restrain credit growth amid property restrictions

Prospective buyers attend a real estate trade fair in Chengdu, capital of Sichuan province, on Oct 3, 2016. [Photo/For China Daily] BEIJING - China will control its credit growth and take active measures to promote the healthy development of the housing market, a central bank statement said Saturday. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of…

Has The Bottom Been Put In For The Yuan?

Central bank sets midpoint of yuan at weakest level in six years

A clerk counts yuan bank notes and US dollar bills at a bank of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in Huaibei, East China's Anhui province, Nov 28, 2012. [Photo/IC] Midpoint of yuan set by China's central bank on Monday stood at 6.7008, the weakest level since September 2010, but economists see no further sharp…

Producers Tepidly Dipping Their Toes Bank Into Oil-Sands

Oilpatch to proceed with caution despite OPEC production deal, not expecting 'sea change in prices'

CALGARY - Shares of Canadian oil and gas producers continued to rally Thursday, a day after OPEC's agreement to cut production, but wary oilpatch executives were holding off on the celebrations. "I wouldn't say that it's going to lead to a sea change in prices," said Anthony Marino, president and CEO of Calgary-based Vermilion Energy Inc.,…

I Ain't Afriad Of No Glut

Why the 'wall of crude' may not be such a big threat

For investors worried about the impending ‘wall of crude' coming from Nigeria and Libya reducing the effectiveness of OPEC's recent deal to curb production, RBC Capital Markets has some good news. The firm's head of commodity strategy, Helima Croft, thinks a sustainable ramp-up by some members of the oil cartel is unsustainable. She thinks production levels…

Monday, October 10, 2016

Everyibe Always Needs Reminding Of Investing Basics

David Kaufman: The ten things that all investors should know

As I consider what to address in each of my columns, I often go back through the dozens of pieces that I've written through the years, looking for the themes that have been covered off and those that could use a fresh perspective. It recently occurred to me that readers might benefit from a bit of…

Sunday, October 09, 2016

Gold Miners (GDX) And Gold (GLD) Expected To Bounce But The Slide Will Continue

Gold Miners ETF GDX and Gold (GLD) have been taking it on the chin, but a healthy market should have the pain spread out over time rather than compressed into one short volatile period of time. Gold Miners appear to have put in a downward channel but some of the short term indicators are a little oversold. Don't for one second think this is an endorsement that the wind is back in GDX's sails, it's not, as over the longer term I expect the slide to continue. What I am proposing though is that because of the alignment of the higher lows put in September I think we have a really good site for overhead resistance in place. If you have shorts in GDX they should probably be sold and then re-bought if this proposed move pans out.
Gold ETF GLD is putting in a similar pattern however the downward channel is a lot harder to spot. Overhead resistance is being created from the higher highs in Summer and the higher lows in September. Next week is going to be a very interesting week for gold if this plays out!

Tim Knight On Gold Miners (GDXJ), Retail (XRT), Consumer Staples (XLP) And The S&P (SPY)


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Some wild-assed (but still carefully considered) guesses about a few ETFs:

Saturday, October 08, 2016

Deutsche Bank Has Begun Fund-Raising In Face Of Mounting Legal Bills

Deutsche Bank 'to weigh capital options with lenders'

Deutsche Bank AG is holding informal talks with securities firms to explore options including raising capital should mounting legal bills require it, according to people familiar with the discussions. Senior advisers at top Wall Street firms are speaking to representatives of the…

Chinese Currency Now Part Of IMF's Special Drawing Rights, Won't Speed Reforms

IMF official lauds RMB joining elite world currencies

The inclusion of the Chinese currency into the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights basket will not only help China's financial reforms but the evolution of the international financial system, according to IMF officials and think-tank economists. Zhang Tao, the new deputy managing director of the IMF, said inclusion of the Chinese currency, the renminbi, makes…

It's Looking Like It's Going To Be A Hard Landing

Flash crash: UK pound falls on Brexit concerns

Britain's pound sterling has lost as much as 10 percent of its value in a "flash crash", prompting concern about the vulnerability of the currency and other British assets. The pound recovered from the initial plunge early on Friday, which took it as low as $1.1491 in Asia trading hours and was driven, dealers said, by…

I Think The S&P Has Been Here Before, But We Are In October

Break Point

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Hello from seven miles above Colorado, as I am winging my way to MoTown. Instead of my usual griping and moaning, I’ll take on a hopeful tone about next week and say that we bears could finally get our day in the sun.

Chart after chart all shows the same thing: there is a trendline in place since February 11 of this year which is right at the cusp of failing. (In a few cases, like the Dow 30, it has already failed). What I’m watching most closely is the ES. A drop beneath the level I’ve highlighted below (about 2132) would do the trick.
I’m positioned with 57 different shorts. I still think President Pantsuit is going to win, but I’ll be watching the ES on Sunday night while the debate is going on to see if Trump can produce a performance that isn’t absolutely horrible like his first time out.

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Natural Gas (UNG) On A Run (To At Least $9.25 We Hope)

Winter is upon us, the President has spoken highly of it recently, what more do you need? We identified the support zone around $8.20 to $8.30 some time ago but we were concerned about a breakdown and chose to watch what would happen instead. What has happened with Natural Gas ETF (UNG) was a firm rejection and four strong up days. There is a overhead resistance now at $8.80 and again at about $9.20 but I am expecting a resumption of UNG's move upwards. Despite four strong 'up' days we haven't had any convincing cross-overs on the indicators yet which suggests to me that some pressure beneath may building up while they change direction. The EMA's are appropriately aligned and the momentum indicators are all positive. After tomorrow's job report and looking ahead to the new week Natural Gas deserves a close examination.

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Probabiltiy Of An October Suprise Increases Thanks To IMF

IMF paints gloomy picture of global economy

The IMF is warning the political mood around the world is undermining growth, which it sees remaining weak. It cites what is happening with the US presidential election, Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and growing protectionism. Its latest global growth forecast is unchanged for the first time in five quarters at 3.1 percent for…

This Might Explain Natural Gas's Good Day Today

Progress, The President And Natural Gas

Interesting remarks from President Obama during the “South By South Lawn” event at the White House this week – with the president basically saying that the abundance and affordability of domestic natural gas is key to America’s energy present and future, even as he gave a nod to natural gas’ ongoing role in reducing U.S. carbon…

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

And Just Like The Prodigal Son, Natural Gas Returns

LNG markets could return to balance by 2021 and spur "second wave" of opportunity: analyst

CALGARY - Global markets for LNG could return to balance as early as 2021, ushering in a "second wave" of opportunity for developers of the supercooled gas on Canada's West Coast, commodities analyst Martin King said. Demand for the commodity fell in recent years as the rapid build out of new LNG export facilities in the…

Monday, October 03, 2016

Donald Trump And The "Basket Of Inexplicables"

Apocalypse Redux: Trading On Insider Information During Financial Crisis By Large Firms

Data Shows How Wall St. Profited From Financial Crash

This article originally appeared on the International Business Times. Big Data—those sprawling algorithms that can track and predict patterns in human behavior—often conjures up fears of a big-brother police state. But those same data-sets could be harnessed to uncover and expose Wall Street excesses. That’s the implication of two new new academic studies about the financial…