Wednesday, November 30, 2016

There's A New Solar Boss In Town

India unveils the world's largest solar power plant

Images have been released showing the sheer scale of the size of the new solar power plant in southern India. The facility in Kamuthi, Tamil Nadu, has a capacity of 648 megawatts and covers an area of 10 kilometres squares. This makes it the largest solar power plant at a single location, taking the title from…

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

This Will Explain The Rise In The Stock Market, But What Is His Actual Plan?

Economists expect Trump to help US economy

While his opponents predicted a Trump win would lead to a severe economic downturn, with CNBC's Paul Gambles predicting a new Great Depression, a new survey of German economists suggests greater optimism for the Trump administration's economic policies. According to a survey of 130 German economics professors conducted by the Ifo Institute, the overwhelming majority expect…

Blockchain Getting Adoption In Wider International Banking System

PBOC push gives blockchain tech a massive fillip

Digital currency, global payment systems are likely to be first segments to apply new way of sharing tamper-proof information China is investing significantly to develop blockchain technology to reshape financial services. Digital currency and global payments may be the first applications. This technology allows parties to carry out direct transactions without using an intermediary by providing…

No Grand Bargain

Oil falls again, dragging down dollar

Fears about a possible failure by OPEC to agree on production cuts at its meeting on Wednesday this week has sent the oil price down further after Friday’s sharp losses. It has also seen the dollar tumble, suffering its biggest drop in a month. Bond yields also fell. The market remains chronically oversupplied, and Friday’s 3.5%…

Dollar's Rise Has Reverberations

Submerging Markets

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Monday was a good start to the week. I’d like to suggest that emerging markets are just about to get whacked on the side of the head. The magenta pattern below is the top. The green area is the failed bullish breakout zone.  It is my considered opinion prices are about to descend deep within the green again.
1128-EEM

Monday, November 28, 2016

And We Already Know How Trump Deals With Debt...

The national debt's long shadow

One thing did not change on Tuesday, Nov. 8 - our unsustainable and exploding nearly $20 trillion national debt. While America was focused on an unconventional presidential election season, the federal debt increased $587 billion in Fiscal Year 2016 alone. Last year, our federal government spent $223 billion, or 6 percent of all discretionary spending, just…

Here We Go Again...Again....And Again

Keeping up the OPEC 'charade': Cartel scrambles for face-saving deal amid looming Trump shadow

CALGARY - The nationalist policies of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump are unlikely to sway next week's OPEC discussions, even as American shale players gradually claw back market share from struggling cartel members, analysts say. Ministers from the 14-nation Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are meeting in Vienna on November 30 to clinch an output deal first…

Did Biotechnology (XBI) Just Head-Fake Or More Pain To Come?

Sorry, but I've had a string of really ugly on-calls and haven't written as much original material as I would like, but I did previously comment on how weak Biotechnology ETF XBI was looking and how I expected a pullback to around $63.00. The problem is it appears that pullback happened in one day and XBI looks set to soar again. On the 30 minute chart it broke a key resistance area around $65.50 but now appears to be putting in a bearish rising wedge, so at least in the near term I am cautious.
On the daily charts it still looks bullish so I would buy on this pullback with stops set at $64.50, otherwise a dip below that level means more pain might be on the way.

A Pullback Is Still A Sign Of A Healthy Market

As TSX closes in on an all-time record, investors wonder if the good times will last

The S&P/TSX Composite Index has been one of the developed world's best performing stock markets this year, rallying more than 15 per cent and now closing in on its all-time record high of 15,625.73. Earlier this week the index shot past 15,000, the first time it's seen that mark in more than a year. What's more,…

Saturday, November 26, 2016

This New "Era" To Be Marred By Global Revival Of Protectionism

Chinese outbound investment enters 'golden era': Think tank report

A Chinese think tank is suggesting the country's outbound investment has entered a "golden era" of growth, despite a perceived rise in trade protectionism in various parts of the world. The Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, a government-affiliated think tank, has published a new report on Chinese outbound investment. The Blue Book of Chinese Enterprise…

This Global Right Wing Resurgence Does Have Drawbacks Which May Not Have Been Immediately Obvious

British Workers Facing Post-Brexit Pay Squeeze

British workers are facing their weakest period of pay growth for 70 years as the economy seeks to cope with the impact of the EU referendum and a potential Brexit, a leading think tank has warned. Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, whose biannual post-budget statements are considered the gold standard in economic…

China's Investment Continues To Creep Across The Globe

Greek firm approves sale of grid operator stake to China's State Grid

Workers check the transmission equipment at a wind power farm in Chuzhou, Anhui province. [Photo/China Daily] ATHENS - Greece's Public Power Corporation (PPC) on Thursday cleared the sale of a 24 percent stake in the Greek power grid operator ADMIE to China's State Grid International Development, Greek national news agency AMNA reported. The approval came in…

Italy Vote Leaves ECB On Edge

Euro zone faces tense times in the wake of Brexit and Trump warns ECB

The European Central Bank has warned of a growing risk to financial stability in the euro zone. The ECB fears some members will be unable to sustain their debt with the potential to increase pressure on the euro zone’s weaker economies. European Central Bank board member questions non-euro CCP supervision https://t.co/VksJwruENo pic.twitter.com/BvybexEzyA— Bloomberg Terminal (@TheTerminal) November…

Thursday, November 24, 2016

Money Isn't Everything, But It Would Be Better Crying In A Mercedes Than On A Bike

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

The Market Is Like A Rollin' Stone

Investors make hay while The Donald shines, but how long will the good times last?

One of the remarkable aspects of financial markets these days is how quickly they get used to things. Terrorist attacks, Brexit, Donald Trump - markets tend to quickly digest the impact of unforeseen events, and then get on with adjusting to the new reality. In the case of Trump, investors are pretty clearly defining the new…

Gold's Punishment Continues

'Tough times': Gold prices sink below US$1,200 for first time in nearly a year

Wednesday was a bad day for Canadian gold stocks as bullion fell below the key psychological mark of US$1,200 an ounce for the first time since February. Gold futures lost 1.8 per cent of their value or US$21.90 to settle at US$1189.30 amid strong U.S. economic data that sent the U.S dollar to a near 14-year…

U.S. Withdrawing From Trans-Pacific Partnership Means China Can Fill The Vacuum

China is redefining the free trade in Asia Pacific

During his campaign, President-elect Donald Trump embraced a protectionist stance on trade issues and called the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster.” More recently, he has pledged that the US will quit the TPP on his first day in the White House. Last weekend, the members of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, which accounts for almost…

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Biotechnology (XBI) Looking Weak, But Inverse Head And Shoulders Developing?

I just wanted to post this before heading off to the hospital for work but Biotechnology ETF XBI is looking limp and lifeless, especially after yesterday's rout. My indicators haven't crossed over yet but the change in direction has been made so I expect the bearish scenario to emerge sooner or later. What's interesting is that a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern has appeared, although I'm never good at spotting these. Longer term support then would be around $59.00 to $60.00 and nearer term I think support at $62.00. Just below $62.00 is a huge gap so if the bulls are in charge this should be support.

Aborted Patterns And A Market In Flux

Gold Market Update

originally published Saturday, November 19, 2016

Printable Version
Current Gold Market Update
Charts only ever indicate probabilities, not certainties. At the time of the last update, gold was setting up for another upleg within the uptrend shown on our 1-year chart below, but this was predicated upon the expected Clinton victory, so when Trump won instead, this scenario aborted. Observe how, early on election night, when the markets assumed Clinton would win, gold was up sharply, but by the end of the night it had reversed sharply on heavy turnover, and it went on to break down from the uptrend and head steeply lower towards the important support level shown, which it started to arrive at on Friday. Fundamentally, the reason for gold heading sharply lower on a Trump win was not the possibility of Trump melting down Trump Tower and casting it into gold ingots to dump on the market, but the prospect of Trump’s ambitious and expansionary policies driving up interest rates which had the immediate effect of driving the dollar higher, but given that sharp moves across markets since the election have been based on a combination of assumptions and wishful thinking, they could go into reverse very quickly, and with the dollar hitting a target late last week, gold has a good chance of turning up from the support in the $1180 - $1210 zone. It is widely assumed that because Trump won the election by a clear majority (of electoral votes), he has “carte blanche” to fulfill his election pledges as he wishes, but there are powerful vested interests standing in his way who will make their presence felt, which is a reason some of the post-election trends may go into reverse
It is interesting to look at gold on a 2-year chart, because on it we can see that gold may be in the process of forming a Head-and-Shoulders top at the support level. However this scenario is considered less likely, because of a larger order Head-and-Shoulders bottom that we will look at shortly on gold’s 7-year chart, and because gold stock sentiment is already at the abysmal levels that are associated with an important bottom. Even if gold is actually marking out a Head-and-Shoulders top, the probability is high that it will rally here to about the $1280 level to form a Right Shoulder to the pattern, which would serve to unwind the oversold condition before it later breaks down.
Proceeding to the 7-year chart, we see that a larger order complex Head-and-Shoulders bottom may be forming in gold, and if so the retreat of recent weeks signifies it dropping down to form the Right Shoulder of the pattern. If this interpretation is correct then, given the tendency of these patterns to symmetry, it is likely to take some months of building out the Right Shoulder before gold is ready to advance out of the pattern by breaking above the resistance at the top of it towards and at $1400. The big advance from the late 2015 low to the peak last July – August certainly has bullish implications and increasing the probability that gold is turning into a bullmarket.
The breakdowns by gold and silver naturally had a big impact on mining stocks, which fell hard, as we can see on the 1-year chart for GDX shown below. There is a widespread fear now that GDX and various indices have broken down from a Head-and-Shoulders top, but it is not thought to be a valid one for 2 main reasons – one is that this flies in the face of the larger order Head-and-Shoulders bottom that we have already observed on the 7-year chart for gold, and the other is that sentiment towards gold stocks is already close to rock bottom – just 7% bullish compared to 100% at the beginning of July. This reading, which we can see on the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index chart below, is even lower than just before the huge sector rally that started in January of this year, when it was at about 13%. This strongly suggests that GDX will turn up from the strong support level that it is currently dug into.

The dollar did an about face and went storming up on the Trump win, for the reasons set out above – chiefly the increased chance of higher interest rates, as we can see on the year-to-date chart below. Many are now calling for a big rally to the 110 or even 120 area, and while this could yet occur, it is sobering to observe that the dollar has arrived at a target in a very overbought state, and given that simplistic assumptions about a Trump Presidency could soon give way to serious doubts, it is conceivable that the dollar is at a top here – even if it is destined to continue to 110 or 120, it would be in order for it to stop for a rest here and consolidate or react somewhat.
The dollar index has made new highs, as has been widely TRUMPeted in the media, but as we can see on its 3-year chart, these new highs are still marginal, and the fact that it is at a target and still within grabbing range of the resistance shown, and is overbought, increases the risk that it will slump back into the giant trading range, and if it does it will trigger a rebound in the Precious Metals sector – this could be the most important message being telegraphed by the extremely low Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index.

End of update.

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

I Think More Than Just Canada Could Be In Trouble

Terence Corcoran: Canada could be in for a lot more trade trouble under Trump than just NAFTA

While there is general concern that Donald Trump's trade policies and anti-globalization stances are bad news for global trade and growth, a certain rosy haze seems to have rolled over parts of Canada. If Trump were to, say, undo NAFTA as promised, maybe that will be good for Canada, said former Quebec Premier Jean Charest. It…

Bond And Currency Markets Are Flashing Warning Signs

The currency market is talking and investors would be wise to listen

Being the contrarians we are, the consensus view at times tends to rub us the wrong way, especially whenever it appears investors are working backward to justify whatever action taken by the market. More recently, we've become very worried about the rocketing U.S. dollar and the corresponding large selloff in bonds that is being rationalized as…

Don't Forget, We've Been Here Before

Oil prices surge up on output cut hopes

Oil prices rose to three-week highs on Monday amid expectations that OPEC is moving close to a deal to cut output when it meets next week. Brent crude went up to 47.94 a barrel, its highest since the start of the month, a five-percent rally no doubt also fuelled by comments from the Russian President Vladimir…

Oh Not This Again: OPEC Production Cut Progress

Iran Agrees To Join In Upcoming OPEC Production Cut

With OPEC's Nov. 30 meeting in Vienna just days away, the oil minister of Iran, a member state once reluctant to help the cartel gouge gas prices, announced his readiness to join in and strengthen production cuts. “It is highly probable that oil and energy ministers of the member countries of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries…

Monday, November 21, 2016

Home Construction (ITB) Following The U.S. Dollar

As I stated yesterday and on Twitter the U.S. dollar I think is going to take a bit of break after it's meteoric rise of late. An ETF that I have been following but haven't published much on, the Home Construction ETF ITB, has been on an absolute tear as it's followed the dollar since early November. I made a long/buy call around that first week as the EMA(9) and (5) started converging. Since then we've come up to a nice set of resistance areas with the MA(144) over-head and the highs from September and October 2015. Now would be a good time to cover profits and prepare for a pullback to around $26.90.
Additionally, if you look at the 30 minute chart a bearish rising wedge is being put in too. I'm sure a new buying opportunity will present itself but now is the time to take money off the table or hedge with a small short position.

False Breakdown In Crude? Breather For The Dollar?

Bull Tastes Like Turkey

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Happy Thanksgiving Week, everyone. This will naturally be a quiet week overall in the markets, with the markets closed on Thursday and an early close the day before.

The unfortunate news for any remaining bears out there is that, first off, crude oil has broken its formerly squeaky-clean pattern. Maybe OPEC is going to succeed in pulling off a deal after all on the 30th. Here’s what the front month looks like right now, with the trend break highlighted:
1121-clf
The ES continues its perpetual creep-under-the-trendline routine. Every since the (ridiculous) election night craziness, we’ve been in an orderly, systematic drift higher, day by day. I’m not sure what kind of shock event would reverse it at this point, since the market seems to be taking everything, from Trump on down, totally in stride.
1121-es
Short-term, I think the US dollar rally is going to take a breather, which would mean (1) a bounce in the Euro (2) a bounce in precious metals (3) a bounce in miners. The long-term trends are still firmly in place, though, as I believe all three of these aforementioned items are headed lower in the longer-term.
1121-euro
I’m hosting Thanksgiving this week, so I’m going to be very occupied with family matters, but, as always, I’ll try to stay on to of Slope as best as I’m able.

Not Sure "Trumpflation" Is Going To Come From Sustainable Growth, But Rather Short Term Stimulus

Why 'Trumpflation' may not provide the growth fix that the world's largest economy needs

Bond yields are rising. Stock markets are exuberant. The U.S. dollar is soaring. The generally accepted reasoning is simple: With the U.S. election victory of Donald Trump, markets are expecting higher growth and higher inflation in the world's largest economy. Inflation, when it's tied to economic growth, can be a good thing. And for years since…

Investing: Slow And Steady Wins The Day

Surge in Sustainable Investing Revealed in Morgan Stanley and Bloomberg Survey

The best approach in the sustainable investing market is to leverage an investment firm’s strengths and focus on its unique value proposition in designing the products they bring to market. To maximize opportunities and develop credible investment products, firms may also need to invest more resources in growing their sustainable investing business. A new survey published…

Green Energy Continues To Dominate

Coal Is Giving Way to Greener Energy in US

Ravens fly over a sprawling, abandoned brick building with tall chimneys that once billowed plumes of smoke day and night. In its heyday, the coal-fired plant continuously produced 370 megawatts of electricity, with each megawatt able to power a thousand households. But its last coal-fired units were shut down a few years ago. Piles of coal…

Well The Bond Market Certainly Needs A Breather

US Markets Back Off Slightly After Trump Election Rally

The three major U.S. stock market averages edged lower in afternoon trading Friday, even though the Nasdaq Composite Index hit an intraday record high earlier. Overall, the Standard and Poor's 500, Dow Jones industrial average and Nasdaq all closed higher for the second week in a row. In general, U.S. stocks have been enjoying a strong…

Get The Frack Outta' Here, Legal Liability Escalates With Fracking

Study Finds Fracking Creates Clustered Earthquakes

Critics of fracking often cite increased earthquakes as one of the many dangers the natural gas extraction method poses to communities and regions. It’s a contentious issue — natural gas proponents and oil companies say it just ain’t true — but new research published Thursday finds that clusters of earthquakes in western Canada are indeed caused…

Sunday, November 20, 2016

I Think It'll Be More Than Just Interest Rates That Ruin Trump's Plans

Interest Rate Hike Could Ruin Trump's Plans

Janet Yellen sent expectations of a December hike in the interest rate sky high during her congressional testimony Thursday, with one futures marketplace pegging the probability at upwards of 90 percent. The upcoming move, which the Fed delayed at meetings in both September and November, could spell trouble for president-elect Donald Trump, who blasted the central…

Emerging Markets (EEM, EWZ and FXI) I Think Will Get A Bit Of A Breather Over The Next Ten Days

It's been a while since I've written something as I've been distracted with on-calls at the hospital but a lot has happened since I warned in an article just before the election "Let's Wait For The Dust To Settle." Statistically elections tend to be bullish and we've just had a good second week of the markets rising with, granted, a bit of a pullback on Friday. Additionally, the markets are nervous (or unclear) on the Trump's economic plans. Add into the mix a 90% chance of an interest rate increase in December and things have become quite uncertain. With the dollar's rise emerging markets have taken quite a beating lately but as I should below, for those of you who are interested, long/buy signals have appeared. I think Emerging Markets will get a bit of breather before continuing down again.

RSI is showing a "buy" signal at the moment with things looking quite over-sold. Emerging Markets ETF EEM was just outside the Keltner and Bollinger Bands which reflects the over-sold nature of the market. The same changes are being seen in China and Brazil ETF's, too.





OPEC: Here We Go Again....Again

Saudi Arabia Pushes For OPEC Deal To Lower Oil Output

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may be headed towards a consensus on capping the oil output by the group after Saudi Arabia pushed toward a decrease, or at least freeze, in the amount of oil being pushed into the market by the member nations of the cartel. At a September meeting in Algiers,…

Saturday, November 19, 2016

Just What We Need, Another Challenge

US Dollar Breaks Out Again

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Below is the symbol UUP, which has broken its series of lower highs and its threatening to create new multi-year highs. The Euro and Yen, naturally, have been getting trashed.
1118-uup

Friday, November 18, 2016

The Lifting Of Sanctions And Iran's Finding Of New Friends

Iran Tops Saudi Arabia In India Oil Supply

Iran overtook its regional rival Saudi Arabia in oil supply to India in October, as the world's top petroleum producers consider output cuts to raise prices, Reuters reported Thursday. The outflux of Iranian oil comes after international sanctions on Tehran's nuclear program were lifted in January, freeing up billions in financial assets and revitalizing Iranian trade.…

Better Now Because Interest Rate Rise Won't Happen Again For A While

Yellen affirms interest rate hike likely next month

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave a relatively upbeat assessment of the economy Thursday, further signaling a likely interest rate hike next month. But she also noted that there is a "great deal of uncertainty" following the election and that she expected it would last for "some considerable time." In her first public statements…

Thursday, November 17, 2016

America's Energy Independence Enhanced By Recent Discovery

‘Largest’ Shale Oil Reserve Discovered in US

Oil explorers in the U.S. state of Texas say they’ve discovered the largest deposit of shale oil in a region known as the Permian Basin. The so-called Wolfcamp formation, explorers believe, could hold up to 20 billion barrels of oil, worth up to $900 billion. The find could be three times bigger than the state of…

Philosophy Of The Day


China's President Reaches Out To President-Elect Trump

China's Xi Jinping calls Donald Trump for a talk

Chinese President Xi Jinping has told US president-elect Donald Trump that cooperation was the only choice for relations between the world's two largest economies, with Trump saying the two had established a "clear sense of mutual respect". Intense speculation has swirled over the impact of Trump's win on China-US issues - from global trade and climate…

Chinese Development Bank (AIIB) Continues To Spread Its Web

EIB to join forces with AIIB in green development projects

The European Investment Bank (EIB) signed agreements of cooperation with Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to co-finance green development projects in June, EIB's vice president told China Daily earlier this week during the UN climate talks. Jonathan Taylor, vice president of EIB, said the bank is willing to co-finance green development projects similar to the metro line…

Desire For Oil And Gas Development In Post-Obama United States

The Energy Opportunity In Washington

Energy as the driver of a number of key public policy issues, and energy as a bipartisan antidote to Washington’s dysfunctions – both are seen in the results of an election-night survey of actual U.S. voters, results that should guide the next administration and the new Congress. Key points: 80 percent of American voters support increased…

Canada Advised To "Diversify" Trade Ties, Pivot Towards China

Following Trump and Brexit, Canada should be expanding its trade relationship with China

OTTAWA - Canada's drive to recalibrate its post-recession export engine could be going south - figuratively but not physically - in the wake of the Nov. 8 election of anti-trade champion Donald Trump. The incoming U.S. president's economic policies closely follow the rise in protectionism that drove the U.K. to opt for leaving the European Union,…

Crude Oil (WTIC) Will Continue To Fall

Peter Tertzakian: Oil to submerge below US$40 if price war drags on

Millions of barrels of excess crude oil are weighing down tankers that are being filled from pipelines coming from fields where rows of overworked pump jacks are bobbing their heads up and down like spooked horses. Oil markets are spooked again, too. In the absence of output restraint – a return to some sense of prudent…

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Mexico, Canada Open To Renogitating NAFTA

Renegotiating NAFTA: How Trump Delivers

Although President-Elect Donald Trump was clear about the North American Free Trade Agreement on the campaign trail -- he wanted major changes -- how the issue unfolds is far from certain. Officials in Canada and Mexico have proceeded cautiously since Trump's election last week, but they have not exactly slammed the door shut. "In practice, it's…

Crude Oil's Fall Expected To Continue

Dead Nuts On

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Crude oil is acting picture-perfect. As I specifically mentioned Monday, I believed it might rally to the underbelly of its trendline, and this morning, with yet another goofy rumor from Russia, crude oil soared……….PERFECTLY touching its trendline, right to the pixel. Huzzah!
1116-crude
So I am VERY enthusiastic about shorting energy stocks at present levels (and, as a bonus, Gartman turned bullish on oil yesterday, God bless him).

Green Credientials Of VF Published

VF Corporation Cuts Global Emissions by 12 Percent During 5-Year Period; Exceeds Carbon Reduction Goal

VF Corporation (NYSE: VFC) today announced a reduction in global carbon emissions by 12 percent from 2011 to 2015, exceeding the 5 percent goal originally set for that 5-year period. VF’s achievement prevented more than 38,000 tons of carbon from entering the atmosphere, the equivalent of the electricity needed to power 5,710 homes for one year.…

Got Weed? Mary Jane Flyin' High

Marijuana stocks trading halted after massive jumps trigger circuit breaker

Stock trading for several Canadian marijuana companies was halted briefly this morning, following massive increases in value in high volume trading. Canada's publicly-traded marijuana companies, including Aphria Inc., Mettrum Health Corp., Organigram Holdings Inc., Supreme Pharmaceuticals Inc., Aurora Cannabis Inc. and Canopy Growth Corp. were all halted for five-minute intervals before 11 a.m. Wednesday morning. The…

Sunday, November 13, 2016

I Think Our Fate Was Already Sealed

Evening in America

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I am going to do something that I’ve never done before in the history of this blog which is to dictate this post verbally. The reason simply stated is that my right hand has very bad tendinitis right now, which I’ve never experienced before but being a person who doesn’t like dealing with pain in the first place it’s fairly debilitating for my typing so, I’m resorting to the mouth and the iPhone. It won’t read quite the same as my writing, but I’m doing what I can.

The media is saturated with analysis about the election and where the media went wrong and what this new presidency will mean for America.  One thing I’ve noticed is that some people seem to be creating an analog between the forthcoming Trump presidency and the Reagan presidency from the election of 1980.

I think this is wrong headed for many reasons, not the least of which is that when Reagan was elected, I think the entire debt of the country was well less then $1 trillion whereas today it is $20 trillion, and that alone creates a completely different world than the one of 36 years ago.

I would also say that in retrospect we can plainly see that Reagan entered office at the beginning of an information revolution that was far bigger than any one dared dream, and that completely changed the global economy and the prosperity of the United States in particular. A large number of people have known nothing but this phenomenal change during their lives and assume that technological revolutions take place constantly, which I think history will show is simply not the case.

My point is simply that we are not approaching the morning in America that the Reagan of the early 1980s represented but instead are facing a world for darker than any of us dare want to contemplate. At a minimum, I believe this rush into equities with the belief that we are at the beginning of a new bull market is foolhardy beyond description.

I am actually grateful for the uplift in prices we saw after the election, because it is created some phenomenal shorting opportunities. It’s another 10 weeks until Trump even takes office, but already the amount of optimism being given to him by the financial world is completely surprising, and I think the level of disappointment you will witness among these optimists will be tremendous.
I will close by saying that these thoughts are based almost entirely on the nature of the world as opposed to the nature of the forthcoming president, because irrespective of the human being that enters the office, I believe their fate is already sealed, so I frankly didn’t care that much who won the election to tell you the truth……except in as much as I don’t like seeing a blatant liar win. Personally I’m pretty sick of the whole topic at this point.

Trump Is Bullish For Gold

Trump's policies likely lead to one unavoidable economic reaction: inflation

Markets may be celebrating what they believe is a new golden age for the U.S. economy under president-elect Donald Trump, but many economists have a much more sobering take. They believe that some of the central tenets of Trump's economic policy are downright harmful to the U.S. and global economies. Those policies include pulling the U.S.…

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Foreign Companies Ink Deals With Sanction-Free Iran, But Political Future Still Looks Murky

CNPC, Total ink Iran joint venture

JV is the first after United Nations sanctions were eased on Mideast nation Iran signed a $4.8 billion natural gas development project with energy giants Total SA and China National Petroleum Corp, marking the first joint venture with international partners since UN sanctions on the nation were eased in January. Paris-based Total will control 50.1 percent…

China's Drive For Self Sufficiency Continues With Environmental Bond Push

Green bond set to boost environment

Bank of China initiative ensures international investors can support projects within China International investors will find it easier to buy into China's environmentally friendly projects as the Bank of China's listed a covered green bond on the London Stock Exchange on Friday. The three-year $500 million China Green Covered Bond, the first such bond to be…

Chinese Intrusion With Development Projects In America's Hemisphere

Xi's visit to Ecuador, Peru, Chile to bring development deals

China will sign agreements with Ecuador, Peru and Chile in areas including trade, investment, finance and nuclear power during President Xi Jinping's third trip to Latin America next week, according to the Foreign Ministry. China attaches great importance to the development potential of Latin America despite the region's slow economic growth in recent years amid global…

Strong Downward Channel On Gold Developing

Gold Plunge Continues

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My around-the-clock attention to Slope is greatly to be curtailed about 90% tonight since (a) my right hand has pretty bad tendinitis (b) I’m at Tastytrade in Chicago. So you folks are pretty much on your own today. I’ll just put up this oh-my-God-precious-metals-suck chart. I hope my Slope Plus subscribers are happy with their miners positions!
1111-gc

Friday, November 11, 2016

The Biggest Loser Election Night Was The Media

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

Inflation Back On The Radar

Soaring garlic, coal prices hint at short-term inflationary pressure

China's key inflation gauge consumer price index grew at its fastest pace in six months in October as food prices rose, while factory prices beat market expectations to accelerate to a 55-month high, fanning concerns of inflation. The October CPI data ended previous drops in the past five-consecutive months starting from 2.3…

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Has Crude Oil (USO) Snapped?

The Broken Crude Trendline

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What a refreshing change, not having to think or talk about debates, Wikileaks, or polls. Nice!
Instead, we can just glance at a chart. Below is the front month of crude oil. The trendline, which broke on November 2nd, has changed roles from support to resistance (circles indicating these points). Vienna OPEC meeting be damned, it seems to me oil is poised to stay beneath this line, so I’m sticking with my energy shorts.
1110-cl

Tuesday, November 08, 2016

VIX Trading Range Identified

Connecting the Dots

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Over the past six years or so, the VIX has been carving out an enormous saucer-shaped pattern. I’ve been dutifully tinting the price peaks (that is, the mini-panics) all along the way, and it forms a pretty interesting, if highly irregular, pattern.
1107-vix
What caught my eye on Friday was the surge to about 23 seems, for now, to have marked merely a “lower high” for the VIX in the year 2016. I am still holding out hope that we’ll make a break for the upper 20s before the year is over, but as for now, volatility is still, to borrow a word from Ben Bernanke, “contained.”
1107-vixclose

Market Bounce Already Priced In

Pick Your Poison

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Thank Jesus in heaven, this goddamned election is almost over.

While walking through downtown Palo Alto yesterday, I saw a man dressed up as Uncle Sam holding up a big handwritten sign that was obviously pro-Trump, anti-Hillary. I assure you, this is the first such thing I’ve seen in the Bay Area. Indeed, I haven’t seen one – – not ONE – – Trump sign in town. Even those who secretly support him are too afraid of being ostracized.

Another man was in Uncle Sam’s face, telling him with a smirk that violence is the only thing Trump supporters understood. I didn’t get close enough to hear what was going on, but they were arguing with one another at length. The whole thing made me sad for them, and sad for this once-proud country of ours.

This election between two totally shitball candidates – – one of them, an ungodly corrupt, amoral human who touts her lack of a dick as her principal qualification, and the other a hypersensitive megalomaniac man-child who fancies himself a genius businessman but simply is a grown-up rich kid – – is nothing short of embarrassing for this country. The next four years are going to suck. I wouldn’t be that surprised if we wind up with a president named “Timothy” before the year 2020.

Anyway, I’m not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but as I look at the chart of the ES below, I would say it’s just a touch more bearish than bullish. The Clinton victory is already priced in, just in case the record-setting liftoff in the market wasn’t clear to you yesterday, and once Obama buttons down this third term of his, the Herculean efforts to keep the fake equity circus artificially propped up are no longer necessary.
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Colonialism 2.0 And The Asian Race For African Resources

Japan Sets to Explore Opportunities in Nigeria Despite Economic Headwind

The Japan External Trade Organisation (JETRO) says that Japanese companies are still eager to explore and expand trade opportunities in Nigeria in spite of economic recession in the country. Mr Taku Miyazaki, Trade Commissioner of JETRO, disclosed this in a statement to newsmen in Lagos. JETRO is a Japanese government-related body that promotes trade and investment…

Unconventional Sources Of Oil Should Still Have Saudi Arabia Worried

Breakthrough in shale oil extraction technology triples production

A major oil shale company has successfully extracted shale oil underground for the first time, according to reports in the Jilin Daily. After eight years of exploration, Jilin Unity & Strength Oil Shale Investment Development Co Ltd has demonstrated the effectiveness of its home-developed oil shale in-situ retorting technology. "Our oil share project has entered the…

Natural Gas Continues To Step Up And Displace Nuclear For Energy Needs

US Nuclear Retirements Largely Replaced By Fossil Fuels

Renewables and natural gas may be putting some nuclear out of business, but it is mostly the natural gas that is taking its place. Last week, the Fort Calhoun nuclear power plant in Nebraska became the fifth nuclear power station to shut down in the last five years. Fort Calhoun was the smallest nuclear plant in…

Monday, November 07, 2016

...And Business Has Been Good

'Manufactured outrage': As Trump harnesses fringe political views, the business of Fear has never been better

A company in Salt Lake City that sells packaged food for survival in emergencies is preparing for a post-election sales bonanza. Phil Cox, chief executive of Legacy Food Storage, said sales typically spike around events that inspire fear in his customers, whom he describes as "independent conservatives." For instance, sales of his freeze-dried chili and pasta…

All I'm Saying Is, Stay Out Until The Dust Settles

Why the U.S. election this week will have far-reaching market consequences

Though they might not openly admit it, many investors are intellectual snobs. They like to think they're smarter than other folks. And why not? They're looking for an edge over the mass-psychology engine they play in, and being smarter than the next guy or gal might just provide it. The reality, however, is often less highfalutin.…

Activist Court Ruling Makes A "Hard Brexit" Virtually Impossible

Brexit court ruling exposes bitter divide in the UK

A British High Court decision to require parliamentary approval before starting Brexit negotiations has prompted an angry response from newspapers, politicians, and members of the public. Friday’s tabloid front pages were imbued with fury at the judges who passed the ruling and at the activists who brought the case to the courts. The right-leaning Daily Mail…

A Female Or Someone With No Political Experience

Election Night Is Also A Party Night

History will be made on Nov. 8 when America elects either the first woman president or the first president without any public-sector experience. On Tuesday, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will both hold campaign parties in New York City, with Clinton's taking place at the Jacob K. Javitz Center and Trump's at the New York Hilton…

Sunday, November 06, 2016

The End Is Near

Eleven/Nine

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So here we are. In just a few days, we will be in the thick of election day, and by Tuesday evening, we should have a good idea as to what the next four years are going to be like.

I started off this year with a post about the election, and I’ve written about it from time to time since then. The entire post can be summarized with its closing line: “It’s as simple as that. Status Quo means Hillary. Financial Mayhem means Bernie. Fear means Trump.”

Unfortunately, we didn’t get financial mayhem, so Bernie’s out of the picture. As some of you know, this saddened me greatly, because the country at last had a chance at a truly moral leader. His endorsement of Clinton now baffles me, considering the disgusting behavior that the DNC took toward destroying him, but I suppose his reasoning is the same as 90% of Clinton’s supporters (“He’s not Trump”), so………shrug.

Ever since the October 28th announcement from the FBI, Team Trump has been excitedly pointing to its renewed chances of success, but the numbers sure aren’t looking encouraging. Yes, Trump got “less behind” for a little while, but the spread is still as wide as Hillary’s backside:
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It seems every day that passes brings in increasingly brazen tales of thievery, corruption, and lies. It’s gotten to the point now that even satanic rituals are part of Camp Clinton (hey, at least they’re not atheists, right?)

In the midst of all this insanity, there are actually some very well-written pieces such as this one (and here’s the second part) that articulate the source of all this angst and what its aftermath will be. As a student of history, I find times like these more fascinating than distressing, as we are watching massive changes unfold before our eyes.

I suspect, however, that “change” isn’t what we’re going to get. My hunch is that President Pantsuit will win (perhaps by a small margin popular-vote-wise, but win nonetheless) and she’ll be stuck with a Republican Senate and House that detests her with every molecule of their being. Nothing will get done. Kind of like the past eight years. And for all the talk of “pitchforks and torches”, America is far too passive. You’re not going to see any pitchforks. Or torches. Or anything beyond some bloggers continue to howl. Clinton’s life will be hell, I’m sure, but it won’t be because anyone is dangling from a lamp post.

I’ll repeat what I wrote back on May 28th:
……consider this final thought: picture in your head – – Hillary and Bill Clinton marching up Pennsylvania Avenue in January as she prepares to take the reigns of the most powerful position on Earth. Honestly, take a moment, and picture that in your mind’s eye. Picture Bill with his giant smirk, waving to the crowds. Picture Hillary and her gargantuan ass swaying back and forth (come to think of it, only Carter did the walk; they’ll be toted around in a bulletproof limo).
At that point, you’ll know the bad guys have wholly and fully won. Goldman Sachs. Lloyd. Bill. All of them. We’ve spent the past seven years thinking that the financial crisis was just Act One to a much bigger drama. Well, it wasn’t. Instead, the financial crisis was the last chance for America to save itself from itself. Instead, the 1% have utterly triumphed, a completely venal, corrupt woman is going to be escorted into the White House (mainly because women like the fact she is, clinically speaking, a female), and not a single bad boy on Wall Street will have paid any price for their sins.

It wasn’t that long ago that the person defeated in the Presidential race made a concession speech which, while obviously expressing disappointment, at least did its best to re-unite the nation, since every campaign has some divisive themes. That’s the nature of an adversarial political system. It seems like science fiction now, but here’s the concession speech from Al Gore, whom many would very rightfully argue had the presidency stolen from him (although, given what was to take place just nine months after this video, he might have too much regret, particularly since he went on to make hundreds of millions of dollars from Google stock):

Can you imagine, for instance, Trump losing and making a speech like the one above? And that’s the huge question: if he loses, will “Eleven Nine” (that is, the day after the election) be our own internal bookend to the external bookend of Nine/Eleven? How much civil unrest are we going to see? I suspect almost none. Lots of investigations, yes, but it’ll be back to WalMart and the Kardashians for most of America before the week is even over.

Almost as important is who takes control of the Senate. Just as the Presidential race has taken the form of a sine wave……..
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So, too, has the race for control of the Senate, which is much closer:
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If Clinton becomes President Pantsuit, she will naturally have endless investigations and probably an impeachment to anticipate, particularly if both houses of Congress are hostile to her. She automatically starts off with half the country hating her, plus a portion of the other half will have a feeling that – – for lack of a better term – – “she got away with it” – – and they’ll hate her too. She is the perfect formula for an unpopular president.

As far as the stock market is concerned, which ostensibly is what we should be talking about anyway, the following pathway still makes the most sense to me:
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This would suggest to me that, as risky as a “Clinton Relief Rally” might sound to equity bears, it might be worth holding on to at least some of those short positions and temporarily keeping wide stops. There is absolutely no way in the world that Clinton wins and the other side simply declares “we’ll get ’em next time.” I expect the biggest surprise from this election isn’t happening on November 8th, but in the days and weeks that follow.
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Just Like The Mob In Vegas, Bitcoin Tries To Go Legit

Major Broker Adds Bitcoin to Its Books

This article was originally published by International Business Times. Tullett Prebon Information, the data division of the global interdealer group, will distribute cryptocurrency data across financial markets, having signed a deal with Australian company, Brave New Coin (BNC). The deal promises data on intraday pricing for more that 50 digital currencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple's…

Saturday, November 05, 2016

With OPEC Deal Still In Doubt, Encana Upgrade May Be Premature

Encana Corp upgraded on plan to grow oil and gas derivatives by 60%

Encana Corp. was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets following third-quarter results that generally exceeded forecasts. But what impressed analyst Greg Pardy most, was the company's game plan to grow its high-margin oil and natural gas condensate production through 2021. "We recently signaled that we would add Encana on weakness – and…

Part-Time Work Spreading Around The World

Canada's job growth blows past expectations, but it's all part-time

OTTAWA - For the first time in a year, the Canadian economy has managed to produce three consecutive monthly gains in employment, even though the most recent increase did not budge the jobless rate away from seven per cent, where it has remained for three months as well. Employment grew by a net level of 43,900…

Continued Chinese Integration Around The Pacific Rim

China, Malaysia to work closely on infrastructure

Long-term cooperation to benefit both sides, President Xi tells visiting Prime Minister Najib China and Malaysia agreed on Thursday that bilateral ties are in their best period ever and that cooperation in the long term will be sought on regional infrastructure projects. During their meeting in Beijing, President Xi Jinping told Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak…

Diversification Is Probably A Good Idea In China With It's Debt Buildup These Last Few Years

Capital outflows not significant risk for China: US experts

WASHINGTON - Capital outflows from China will not pose a significant long-term risk to the world's second-largest economy, as it's largely a natural process of portfolio diversification, US experts said Thursday. "A very important…

Friday, November 04, 2016

Crude Oil ($WTIC) Breaks

Double Duty Trendline

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First off, congratulations to the Chicago Cubs for their remarkable victory. This is literally the first time in my life I turned on a baseball program, and I guess I picked a good one. What a game! I see a lot of Slopers had fun last night in the comments section watching it too.

Second, I’m pleased to see crude oil’s little rally last night accomplish just one thing: to give the broken trendline a peck on the cheek before turning downward again. Wouldn’t it be magical if support was now solid resistance?
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England And Germany Continue To Move Along Divergent Tracks With Radically Different Immigration And Economic Policies

Germany Remains Economic Stronghold While Welcoming Most Of EU's Migrants

Despite shouldering much of the European Union’s (EU) migrant burden, the EU’s economic powerhouse is set to reveal strong growth numbers for its third quarter later this month. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s promise that Germany “will manage” with the EU’s largest influx of refugees has led to criticism from her own party, and even to her backtracking…

E.U. Consumer Spending Levels To Be Seen In China In A Generation And A Half

China To Become Middle-Class Society By 2030

China will be a middle-class society by 2030 matching consumer spending levels seen in the European Union at the moment, a new report by an analytics company said Wednesday. Private consumption will grow on an average of 5.5 percent every year. China is currently at consumer spending levels seen in Malaysia in the 2000s with nearly…

Thursday, November 03, 2016

The Fed's (Not So) Christmas Suprise

Will The Fed Raise Interest Rates?

The U.S. Federal Reserve likely will set the stage for a December interest rate hike when it ends its two-day November meeting Wednesday. Observers do not expect the Federal Open Markets Committee to impose a rate hike this month, but with employment and inflation strengthening, a December rate hike is all but inevitable. Raising interest rates…

I Couldn't Agree With This Gold Forecast More

Gold Market Update
It now looks like gold’s correction is done and its intermediate base pattern is completing, and if so then we are at an excellent entry point for many better PM stocks, which have been savagely beaten down over the past several months - a necessary correction following their outsized runup earlier in the year.

On its 1-year chart we can see that gold’s corrective action from early July has brought it all the way back to its steadily rising 200-day moving average, a classic buy spot, where a potential intermediate base has formed. This corrective action has more than completely unwound the earlier overbought condition and it may well be that the price is bottoming at the lower boundary of the large parallel uptrend channel shown, and that is what various factors suggest. These factors are the major uptrend still in force as symbolized by the rising 200-day moving average already alluded to, the bullish alignment of moving averages, the price being at the lower boundary of the prospective channel shown, the earlier overbought condition having unwound, and finally the dollar looking like it is breaking down from its uptrend of the past month, which we will look at later.
The 7-year chart for gold shows its new bullmarket in the context of the preceding bearmarket from the 2011 highs. This new bullmarket ran into trouble at the 1st resistance level shown, but after the recent correction it should now gather itself to take out this resistance on the next upleg, and target the next resistance level in the $1520 - $1550 zone. Needless to say, an advance to this objective will result in PM stocks, which have been severely beaten back on the correction, soaring to much higher levels. If this interpretation is correct then we are at an excellent entry point for many PM stocks RIGHT NOW.
The 20-year gold chart is interesting, as it makes plain that the 2011 – 2015 bearmarket is really nothing more than a correction to the giant bullmarket from 2001 that preceded it. It also shows that this giant correction ended right at the zone of strong support shown just above the zone of extensive trading that occurred in 2008 – 2009, a very good point for it to reverse to the upside. The new bullmarket that is believed to have begun early this year should take gold way above its previous highs in the $1900 area.
Another possible bullish factor for gold here is that the dollar appears to be breaking down from its uptrend that started at the beginning of the month, with an increasing risk that it will drop back across its range. We can see this to advantage on the year-to-date chart for the dollar index.
The 3-year chart for the dollar index shows that it’s still no change for the dollar, as it remains stuck in the giant trading range that started to form back at the March 2015 peak. Right now, having approached the resistance again at the top of the range, it looks like it is rolling over to drop back across the range again, which will be good news for gold.
The 1-year chart for GDX is most interesting. Many would-be PM sector stock buyers are currently deterred from doing so by seeing that the red downtrend shown on our chart is still in force. However, it is very possible that this index is close to the lower boundary of the larger order uptrend channel shown, which is of course closely related to the parallel channel that we have observed on the 1-year gold chart. If so then we are clearly at a very good point to buy, as the index will go on to break out upside from the red channel, and various factors strongly suggest that this is what is going to happen. In the first place, the index is close to a zone of strong underlying support, which arrested the decline early this month. Secondly the 200-day moving average is still rising strongly, which shows that the major trend is still up, and moving averages are definitely in bullish alignment, with any rally now turning the 50-day up above the 200-day. Thirdly stocks are still oversold, after correcting back from being heavily overbought early in July, and last but not least most would-be investors in the sector are cringing timidly in the shadows as they usually are after a sharp drop – it’s their right to buy high and nobody and nothing is going to stop them. This is made abundantly plain by the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index chart, which we will look at next.
Finally, for those of you who are still feeling leery of buying gold stocks here, take a look at the latest Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index chart, which shows that sentiment has dropped from “foaming at the mouth” 100% bullish back in early July, when to many there was no sign of the impending sharp correction, to a paltry 18% bullish now. Ask yourself if you felt more bullish towards the sector back early in July than you do now, and you will have the answer to whether you should buy the sector now. Sure, it could drop more from here, but technically it’s a lot less likely than it was back in July – much more likely is that a big rally starts soon.
There has been a lot of action in the “Green Gold” space too. Some of our stocks in this sector have made phenomenal gains with General Cannabis, for example, rising by about 2000% since it was recommended on the site back in March, and recent rec Massroots up by 55% in 2 weeks. Those of you who are interested in learning more about the continuing major opportunity in the marijuana sector, resulting from the explosive growth in medical and recreational marijuana use due to the dramatic easing of legal restrictions, are invited to download the special Green Paper we have prepared for this purpose by clicking on this link. Right now gold and silver are thought to be powering up for another major upleg, hence these latest updates.

End of update.

America In Decline? D'uh!

Is America's Economy in Decline?

LifeZette asked leading economic analysts and scholars to address one question: Is America's economy in decline? There was near unanimous consensus the rising, uncontrolled national debt, development of a regulatory climate hostile to business and poor trade conditions have seriously imperiled the economic health of the U.S. economy. "America's secular stagnation also no doubt results from…

Future For Natural Gas Looks Spectacular With Reduced Emissions, Cost

The Natural Gas Model For Emissions Compliance

In recent months we’ve posted a number of times about how increased U.S. use of natural gas is lowering carbon dioxide emissions by the electricity-generation sector while also making our air cleaner by helping reduce criteria pollutants. Looking ahead, using abundant natural gas offers states a path to continue reducing emissions in a way that’s clean,…

Wednesday, November 02, 2016

Volatility (VXX) Is Starting To Spark Into Life

I haven't posted much on Volatility ETF VXX recently for obvious reasons, but some of my long-term momentum indicators have started to diverge. In the short-term I've noticed that VXX has come right up to a critical channel resistance line while volume has been above average since August. It's a little overbought so perhaps a pull-back tomorrow but a renewed push to  that fourth resistance line just above $40.00 is definitely within the realm of possibilities.

Generational Change With Green Investment And Solid Returns

Green Bonds Are Exploding But Questions Remain About How The Money Is Being Used

“The green bond market is on a tear.” The value of the green bonds sold in the first seven months of 2016 exceeds the total value of green bonds sold in all of 2015, according to an update from EY’s Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index. “The green bond market is on a tear,” EY analysts wrote…

Move In Gold Expected Around The Time Inflation Will Take Off

Mobius says gold will gain in 2017 as Fed goes slow on rate increases

Customers choose gold accessories at a gold retailer store in Beijing, on Jul 3, 2016.[Photo by Cao Boyuan/For China Daily] Gold is set to advance by as much as 15 percent before the end of next year as the US Federal Reserve goes slow on increasing interest rates and the dollar remains subdued, buoying bullion demand,…

I Buy It, But The S&P Going To 2,300 Isn't A "Surge"

The bull market is not dead yet: BofAML sees S&P 500 surging to 2,300 points by 2017

The S&P 500 could be setting up to hit 2,300 by the middle of next year as stocks enter their strongest seasonal period, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Stephen Suttmeier, technical research analyst for Bank of America Merrill Lynch, says that investors should watch to see whether the S&P 500 dips below 2,100 over the…

Exporting Trump's Revolution Outside The U.S.

Canada's big union bosses are bringing us all the dangerous, destabilizing politics of Donald Trump

Hot on the heels of the signing ceremony for the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade deal, Canada's biggest private-sector union has launched a major campaign to take down much bigger trade game. With full-page newspaper ads, a commercial blitz and an active website, the union is waging war on the Trans-Pacific Partnership. "Worst Trade Deal Ever,"…

China's Already Self-Sustainable Economy Just Got Another Environmental Boost

China takes the lead in renewable energy, as cost-effectiveness improves

A wind farm in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province. [Photo/China Daily] China's renewable energy investment constitutes one-third of the world's investment in the area, said Adnan Z. Amin, director-general of the International Renewable Energy Agency. China's total investment in renewable energy last year was $102.9 billion, up 17 percent from the same period the year before, said Amin…

Tuesday, November 01, 2016

Emerging Markets Put In A Sell/Short Signal Today (EWZ, EEM, ILF)

Brazil ETF EWZ and Latin America ETF ILF have both put in strong sell/short signals today. I'm not surprised that it happened, just surprised it happened at all. Both have been on a strong tear since I entered long signals at the end of September but I had no idea that the ascent would be this strong. What's quietly terrifying though is the condensing triangle in the Emerging Markets ETF EEM which bearishly crossed over on the EMA's today and had a sell signal start three days ago after a little whip-sawing around. I expect EEM, ILF and EWZ to all fall and eventually find support at the MA(144).



Evening Sell Offs Haven't Amounted To Much And Does Not A Trend Make

Simple Advice

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Welcome to November, Slopers!

It wasn’t that long ago that every day, like clockwork, the market would rally for the last half of the day (if not more). I would frequently bemoan this, and folks both here and on Twitter would say something along the lines of, “Well, ya idiot, take advantage of it!” But I never did.

Good thing, too, because this “sure thing” has become a “sure loser” almost every single time. ZeroHedge put together a graph showing (in circles) the end-of-day action, and in almost all cases, it’s down (there are a tiny number, not circled, that are up). It just goes to show that the “easy” answers aren’t always the right ones.