Tuesday, January 03, 2017

Fed Minutes This Week Might Explain Why Small Caps (XLK) Look Bearish

Small Caps ETF XLK has been on fire lately and I still can't think of a good reason why (that doesn't involve skewed government statistics, an election, increase in part-time jobs, and rising household and government debt). I enjoy riding trends as much as anyone but this one is a little old and corrections are healthy. Recently while I was looking at the thirty-minute chart for XLK I noticed a declining wedge which may be developing because of some of the (possibly) bearish news coming out this week. I'm seeing lower highs on the RSI(5) on the index ETF's and volumes still seem disappointingly low. This may be the first full week back in the market but if you're already out you should probably stay out and just watch from the sidelines because these are starting to seem a little irrational. Stops should be set on any break above the upward resistance line, but this market seems like it's going to do whatever it takes to hit 20,000 even if it means destroying everything and everyone around it, so while we approach this "watershed" moment don't completely discount it from happening, even it is irrational.