Sunday, April 23, 2017

More Heavy Squalls Could Be Just Ahead But For Now The Bulls Have Come Out To Play

Trading Diary: U.S. steel sector does a complete about face

WASHINGTON, April 20, 2017 – After Wednesday's vicious market collapse, all's right with the world on Wall Street Thursday. A majority of sectors (save for defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities) have done an about face today, bolstered by a number of positives, including President Trump's order to the Department of Commerce to open an…

Apocalypse 2008 Redux

IMF Urges Caution as Washington Eyes Slashing Regulations, Taxes

The International Monetary Fund said President Trump's plans to cut regulations and taxes might encourage companies to make risky investments of the kind that preceded the financial crisis in 2008. The comment came Wednesday in the newest edition of the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report, which also said the financial system has gotten more stable in…

Solidifying A Dodgy Territorial Claim With Oil, Eh?

China Seeks Foreign Help in Risky Work Finding Oil in Disputed Sea

Beijing is looking for foreign contractors to help find oil and gas under the South China Sea but expects to meet resistance because other governments contest its claims and any discoveries may bring low returns. China's state-run China National Offshore Oil Corp. issued a tender last week for foreign companies to join it in exploring for…

Saturday, April 22, 2017

In Trump Administration Mergers And Acquisitions Are All The Rage

Verizon CEO Says Company Would Consider Mergers

Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam says he is open to having talks about mergers with just about any company, including his company’s biggest rivals, in an interview this week with Bloomberg. McAdam said he is open to the possibility of merging with cable and telecommunications giants like Comcast, Disney or CBS, though he didn’t indicate any actual…

Thing Is Christine, I Don't Think You Have A Choice Either Way

Lagarde: IMF Can Cooperate With Trump Administration

The head of the International Monetary Fund says she "has every reason to believe" that the global lender can cooperate with the Trump Administration to support and improve global trade. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde spoke in Washington as economic and political officials gathered from around the world at this week's meetings of the IMF and…

Will The Final Nail In The E.U.'s Coffin Be Nailed This Weekend?

FRANCE - Will ‘Frexit’ supporters decide the outcome of the French presidential election?

The latest analysis of Vote Compass data by Vox Pop Labs suggests that 49% of French voters support holding a referendum on France’s EU membership. Is "Frexit" likely to sway voters' decisions at the ballot box? Unemployment, the economy and immigration are three of the four most important issues in the campaign. These policy questions all…

Friday, April 21, 2017

Sounds Like That Plate Could Use A Little Freedom


And Like That We Travelled Ten Years Into The Past

Senator calls for “preemptive strike” on North Korea and offers a jaw-dropping justification for war

In an interview with “The Today Show,” Senator Lindsey Graham advocated for a first strike against North Korea in the absence of Chinese action, saying that the United States is “on a collision course” with North Korea. “I talked to the president when I had lunch with him about this very topic. I said, ‘Do you…

Great....

Automation Could Slash Jobs in Developing Countries

World Bank President Jim Kim warns that two-thirds of jobs in developing nations could be wiped out by automation, a situation that could boost conflict and refugee flows. Dr. Kim spoke Thursday in Washington as economic and political leaders from around the world gathered for meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Kim…

Caught In Between A Condensing Triangle And A Perma-Bear

Up In the Air

By -

Greetings from the Centurion Lounge at San Francisco International Airport, where my beloved son and I are preparing to fly off to, yes, another fencing tournament. This place is good for my frail ego, since my kids have been dropping some broad hints about me putting on a few pounds, and seeing the spheres that inhabit this place makes me feel less pudgy. I guess the upper middle class traveling sort likes to chow down. But this little anecdote isn’t why you’re here. Let’s talk about a few charts.
I am, as you might guess, still utterly short. I have 43 positions, 40 of which are individual equities (largely in energy) and 3 simple ETFs. The ES has been banging around, going nowhere in particular, for two solid months now. The lines cleanly define the diminishing range, and gee willikers, I’d love to see us break the lower boundary. I’m traveling, so that can only help, at least for Friday.
0420-es
We remain at the mercy of what the Japanese Yen is doing. We’ve got a decent amount of room to the downside (tinted in green), but a fight back higher could still happen within the confines of the downtrend. It sure would be nice to get a steady slip lower last more than a few hours. All this back-and-forth stuff is driving me to drink. (Which is free here at the lounge).
0420-usdjpy
I have no position in anything gold-related, but I’ve gotta tell ya, I’m getting a Funny Feeling ™ that it’s going to break to the upside. I know that we just started falling away from a descending trendline, but today I noticed a cup with handle pattern (green tint). If we bust that trendline, stand aside, because I think precious metals are really going to start rockin’.
0420-gold
Lastly, and for me most importantly, is crude oil. This isn’t at the mercy of USD/JPY nearly as much as equities, and my dream scenario is a failure at the tint I’ve drawn (which itself is a ways off). I am long ERY, although I sold off about 40% of my position early on Thursday morning to take some profits, and I’ve got about a dozen individual short positions.
0420-crude
My contributions will continue to be sporadic until Monday (although if I didn’t say anything, I bet you wouldn’t have noticed), so I again encourage outside contributors to put up some posts so that Tim & Son can fence their way to glorious victory, whose taste is sweet.

Thursday, April 20, 2017

China's Economic Impact Around Pacific Rim

China's economic growth to contribute $125b to Australian economy: Expert

CANBERRA — Strong growth of the Chinese economy, coupled with the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to cut interest rates to record lows, are expected to deliver a AU$165 billion ($125 billion) boost to the Australian economy, according to Deloitte Access Economics. Recently, China reported an annual growth rate of 6.9 percent for the first…

Positive, But Precarious

IMF: Global Economic Growth Speeds Up a Bit

The International Monetary Fund says the global economic outlook is "brightening," but warns that "protectionism" and geopolitical tensions could hurt economic growth. The IMF published the report Tuesday, ahead of this week's gathering of top economic officials from around the world for meetings of the World Bank and the IMF. The IMF's Maurice Obstfeld told journalists…

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Market Continues To Oscillate

Rubber Seoul

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OK, the pun doesn’t really work, because Seoul is in Korea, but it’s all I could come up with at this hour. Anyway, the point is that the USD/JPY is pretty badly stretched to the downside, and thus has ample room to push higher, even within the context of a general downtrend. It’s already happening this morning.
0419-usd

This is having the regular effects of (a) pushing gold lower, as well as its miners (b) strengthening equities. Indeed, neither bulls nor bears can get any lasting traction in this tug-of-war. The ES has, in fact, gone nowhere for two months.
0419-es
My “big event” today is the oil inventory report at 7:30 a.m. Slope time. I have a pretty big concentration of energy shorts, which have been doing well, and those are far more at the mercy of what oil is doing rather than what the Yen is up to.

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Incentivization Of Green Financing

China central bank official urges efforts to boost green financing

BEIJING — A central bank official on Saturday said green financing must be improved as the country seeks greener and more sustainable growth. In a speech delivered at a meeting on green financing, vice governor of the central bank Chen Yulu said China's green financing is still at an early stage and it has the potential…

China's Natural Resource Acquisition Continues Unabated

New pipeline broadbases gas supplies

PetroChina's petrol station is pictured in Beijing, China, March 21, 2016. [Photo/Agencies] The 1,454-km Kazakh-China link will transport 5 billion cu m annually A new strategically important natural gas pipeline running from southern Kazakhstan to China began operating on Friday, China National Petroleum Corp said in a statement. The company said the pipeline, which has annual…

That's Enough Money To Actually Bring Walt Disney Back To Life (The Person, Not The Company)

Analysts Speculate On Apple Acquisition Of Disney

Wall Street is looking into an Apple-Disney merger, a note by RBC Capital Markets analysts obtained by Variety indicates. The analysts say Apple has the money to take over Disney, and such a merger would create a company worth $1 trillion with “almost limitless opportunities in content and technology.” Although it's all speculation at this point,…

Monday, April 17, 2017

Near Term Gold Correction, But Otherwise More Weakness For The Dollar

Next Important Test for Gold Bulls

By -
0417-gold

Further Energy Independence For U.S.

Alaska Has a New Oil Boom Thanks to Fracking

This article originally appeared on The Conversation. Arctic lands and waters hold irresistible allure for global oil companies. Despite opposition from environmental groups and President Obama’s 2016 ban on drilling in federal Arctic waters, exploration in Alaska has revealed massive new volumes of oil. This comes at a time of low oil prices, when many observers…

Apple Swooping In To Pick Over Toshiba's Pieces

Apple Is Considering Teaming Up With Foxconn To Bid For Toshiba Chip Unit

Apple is reportedly considering getting together with its iPhone assembler Foxconn Technology to bid for Toshiba’s semiconductor business, a Japan public broadcaster NHK reported Friday, according to Reuters. Apple would be making its own bid next to Foxconn’s bid, and is considering investing at least several billion dollars for a stake of more than 20 percent.…

Traditional Retailers Re-Inventing Themselves Through M&A

Walmart is close to expanding their empire with the purchase of a huge online retailer

As countless iconic brand name stores are shutting their doors, Walmart looks to only get bigger and bigger. Reports claimed this week that Walmart was in the end stages of talks to purchase Bonobos, a popular online men’s clothing retailer. RELATED: Two new digital upgrades could send Walmart sailing past competitors Amazon and Target Watch the…

China A Lover Scorned On Bilateral Trade With U.S.

Further opening investment, trade an opportunity for China, US: Former treasury

NEW YORK — Both China and the United States have the opportunity to do well if they further open investment and trade to each other, former US Secretary of the Treasury Jacob Lew said Friday. Lew said that China will benefit from increased US investment in service sectors such as finance and insurance, while the United…

Sunday, April 16, 2017

Trump Has Backed Himself Into A Corner On North Korea

North Korea's behavior 'a situation that just can't continue,' national security adviser says

President Trump's national security adviser on Sunday said North Korea's consistently antagonistic behavior "is a situation that just can't continue," and he refused to take any options off the table in terms of how the U.S. will deal with the reclusive nation moving forward. Speaking Sunday on ABC's "This Week," Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster blasted…

U.S. Energy Consumption, Condensed

The Whole US Energy Picture in a Single Chart (Almost)

(3BL Media/Justmeans) — Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has released their annual US energy consumption chart (Click for larger image). Yes, it looks like spaghetti, but it contains a lot of useful information. It shows, on one page, how much energy we used in 2016, and specifically, what sources we got it from and what we used…

And Just Like That Another Dictatorship Is Born

'Yes' vote leads in Turkey constitution referendum

Istanbul, Turkey - Supporters of constitutional changes that seek to extend the powers of Turkey's presidential office have gained an early lead in a referendum that could change how Turkey is governed. With 65.7 percent of the votes counted, the "Yes" vote, which is backed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was leading with 55.7 percent, while…

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

A Giant About To Fall Silent

Toshiba warns it may not survive amid massive Westinghouse losses

Toshiba – one of the best known names in electronics – is in crisis, saying its very survival is in doubt. The Japanese conglomerate’s latest results reveal much bigger than previously estimated losses for the nine months through to the end of last year. Toshiba risks its shares being delisted from the Tokyo Stock Exchange and…

Renewable Consumer Goods Continue To Develop

Bikes Made With Recycled Materials are Saving Tons of Plastic Every Year

This artist has spent twelve years researching how best to recycle landfill materials; and his results have already become a great help to the environment. After twelve years of research and development, Uruguayan designer Juan Muzzi patented the world's first bike made entirely out of recycled plastic. style="display:inline-block;width:300px;height:250px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-8420654331411867" data-ad-slot="1313712966"> Muzzi's Sao Paulo-based company, Muzzicycle, produces…

Tesla > G.M.

Tesla investors buy the dream

Investors are betting big on the future of electric car maker Tesla. The company’s share price continues to rise and the total value of those shares now make Tesla worth more than General Motors. That came just one week after its value overtook that of Ford. Tesla’s Chief Executive Elon Musk and GM’s boss Mary Barra…

Renewables March On

All Cars Sold in Norway to be Electric by 2025

37% of Norway's automotive market is currently taken up by electric and hybrid cars – but now the northern nation is planning to make it 100% by 2025. Over the course of the next eight years, the Norwegian Parliament is attempting to make sure that all cars sold in the country will either be low or…

Good Question

Nine EU states could still adopt the euro. But why would they?

Have the benefits of the single currency been overlooked since the eurozone crisis, which peaked between 2010 and 2013? After all, growth has picked up across the European Union, and five million jobs were created between 2014 and 2017. It’s almost a truism now to state that Brexit has the potential to break up the European…

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

We Are Indeed!

We’re Getting There…..

By -

My long-held goal of vaulting back up to the VIX trendline is slowly materializing. I’m baffled that the market is so strong with this going on, but it is what it is.
0411-vix
Having said that, I can’t help but express disappointment that, yet again, a sell-off was quickly squelched. It would be nice if it actually stuck one of these days.

"America First"

CRRC helping to upgrade US subways

China Railroad Rolling Stock Corp is expanding rapidly in the United States, and local communities will benefit, officials said. A mock-up of the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority's new Orange Line trains unveiled this week gives Bostonians a glimpse of what their commute will soon look like. "I love it!" said Marcus Paker, a college student who…

Strange Times Make For Strange Bed Fellows

Trump, Gary Cohn Want To Keep Glass-Steagall Act

Despite efforts by President Donald Trump and White House National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn to derail the landmark 2010 regulatory law that sought to correct the behavior leading to the 2008 financial crisis, both men might find common ground with advocates of financial industry oversight when it comes to a much older law known as…

Monday, April 10, 2017

Facilitating The Silk Super Highway

Mongolia vows to enhance China-Europe rail freight

BEIJING - Mongolia has vowed to provide support enhancing the China-Europe freight trains route. "We will help shorten the transit time of China-Europe freight trains via Mongolia and provide fast customs clearance services," said B Tsogtgerel, deputy minister of the Mongolian Road and Transport Development Ministry, on Friday. In 2016, Chinese authorities announced the freight train…

The Death Of Retail

8 Retailers That Have Bucked Trends to Open New Stores

This article originally appeared on The Motley Fool. While the past year has been brutal for many retailers, with numerous chains either closing stores or shutting down entirely, there are some companies bucking that trend. These are retailers that have seized the opportunities created by a down market. Not every company on this list has managed…

Never Waste A Good Crisis

US warships advance towards Korean Peninsula

A group of US warships is headed to the Western Pacific Ocean near the Korean Peninsula as a show of force, according to a US official. The strike group, called Carl Vinson, includes an aircraft carrier and will make its way from Singapore towards the Korean Peninsula. The development comes in response to recent North Korean…

Solidarity In Face Of Strikes

Russia, Iran vow continued military support for Assad

The army chiefs of Russia and Iran have vowed to continue the fight against "terrorists" and their supporters in Syria days after the US Navy launched a barrage of cruise missiles against a Syrian goverment airbase. Speaking by phone on Saturday, Major General Mohammad Bagheri of Iran and General Valery Gerasimov of Russia "condemned the American…

Sunday, April 09, 2017

Pivoting Away From Shiite Sphere Under Trump

Trump, Syria and the Death of 'America First'

America First: Donald Trump’s campaign slogan had a succinct, obvious power. Just two words summed up the instinct that Washington—and big business—was no longer working in the interests of ordinary citizens. The slogan encompassed his (and his supporters’) suspicion of trade deals like NAFTA, as well as the never-ending wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. Despite…

Political Map Of Subcontinent Continues To Be Re-Drawn

India Gives $4.5-Billion Credit Line to Bangladesh, Signs Defense Pact

India and Bangladesh signaled deepening ties Saturday as New Delhi committed a $4.5-billion line of credit to Dhaka for development projects, and the two countries signed their first-ever pact on defense cooperation. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced an additional $500 million in credit for Bangladesh to buy military equipment from India during the visit to…

In Between A Rock And An Assad

Nikki Haley: No solution to war with Assad in power

A political solution to the war in Syria is not possible with President Bashar al-Assad in power, the US ambassador to the UN has said in an apparent hardening of the Trump administration's position. Defeating the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group, pushing Iranian influence out of Syria, and the removal of Assad…

Stasis With A Likely Forecast Of Furious Activity

Blogging from the Back of Uber

By -

There are two principal forces that motivate me in my life: (1) my family (2) Slopers, the latter of which is like a much larger version of my family, except that I’ve never really met them.
The former force is compelling me to travel almost nonstop from Friday through Monday. I won’t go into details, but I will have never spent so much time in an airplane in my life. The latter force – – you – – should get some content, which is why, even in the back of an Uber, I am typing this post at this very moment to fulfill my quasi-familial duty while listening to an endless stream of 80s musics from the radio my driver is playing.

The market’s dynamism has been kind of beaten out of it. I’m hoping the forthcoming earnings season will shake things up, preferably to the downside (of course, the potency of “hope” over the past eight years has been, shall we say, spotty). The Dow Jones Composite is, umm, just kind of sitting there.
0407-comp
A superb example of the moribund nature of this market can be seen by way of the Dow Industrial Average. Thursday and Friday should have provided ample fireworks for the market. In a different environment, the one-two punch of the Syrian missile attack and the lame-o jobs report would have caused equities to go berserk. But in this market……….the Dow was, I kid you not, down three hundredths of a single percentage point. Jesus Tap-Dancing Christ, I miss 2008.
0407-indu
One faint wish I’m clinging to is for the Russell 2000 to break its horizontal at 1335, shown below via that red line. Break that, and we can get a little action.
0407-rut
Perhaps my favorite chart right now is the VIX. Not to sound overly entitled…….actually, I don’t care if I do or not……….we are due for a bounce in the VIX. Just look at the chart. It is just itching to pop.
0407-vix
Of course, crude oil remains a fixation of mine. The strength we saw on Friday, Zeus willing, will constitute the terminus of its countertrend bounce. I’ve tinted what I contend is a strong topping pattern for oil.
0407-crude
Lastly, one area that did see some excitement was the US dollar/Japanese Yen cross-rate. Fortunes must have been made and lost in the span of twelve hours. First there was the plunge based on the Syrian missiles (green tint), then the recovery, only to be undone by another plunge (yellow tint), this one based on the jobs report. Lastly, there was the out-of-nowhere surge (tinted in magenta) predicated, I believe, on some hawkish comments from a Fed dude. Just crazy…………
0407-usdjpy
I personally think the market we’re in today makes 1999 look like the sober face of reason. People have gone stark raving mad, and in doing so, they have embraced unshakeable complacency as a lifestyle.

Wednesday, April 05, 2017

Bearish Sentiment Pervasive

Bee-Yoo-Tee-Full

By -

Just a quick comment-cleaner to see that the retracement to this triangle on the @ES was picture perfect……..
0404-es
…..yet we’re all still at the mercy of the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY shown below is what it’s all about; if we can sink into that green zone, the bears can continue to party for, gosh, more than a single day.
0404-yen

Breakout On Heals Of Court Ruling

Tesla Breaks Out to Lifetime Highs

By -
0403-TSLA
Now all they have to do is ship the Model 3, and they’d be totally rockin’:

This Might Blunt It's Breakout

Tesla Loses Utah Court Appeal For Direct Sales

The Utah Supreme Court dealt a blow to Tesla, Inc. with a ruling Monday that denies the electric car maker permission to sell its vehicles directly to potential customers in the state. The setback for the Elon Musk company came the same day its stock price reached an all-time high on the back of a record…

How Times Have Changed

Iranian Airline to Purchase 30 Boeing Jets

The U.S. plane maker Boeing said Tuesday it agreed to sell 30 of its 737 MAX jets to Iran's Aseman Airlines, a deal worth $3 billion. The sale marks the second such Boeing deal made possible by the 2015 nuclear agreement signed by former U.S. president Barack Obama to relieve sanctions on the Middle Eastern country.…

Don't Think They've Picked The Right Time To Get Positive

The Trump effect: For first time since economic crisis, Americans positive about economy

The Trump effect: For first time since economic crisis, Americans more positive about economy By Kelly Riddell You can call it the Trump effect. For the first time since the economic crisis, more Americans feel positive about the economy than negative about it, a Pew Research survey found. "What a difference a year, and possibly an…

Tuesday, April 04, 2017

Sustainability As Mainstream

Sustainability Drives Revenues for Business in Europe

Corporate sustainability is the way forward for any company that wants to create competitive advantage. In the European business community, there is a growing belief that sustainability is becoming a core component of mainstream business. Many European companies are now looking at how their business can deliver purpose and quantifiable social impacts. The Ethical Corporation’s annual…

Developing Sustainable Businesses

Beyond the Mine: Newmont Publishes 2016 Sustainability Report

Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE: NEM) (Newmont or the Company) today published Beyond the Mine, the Company’s annual report on its progress toward achieving its purpose – to create value and improve lives through sustainable and responsible mining. “Building a healthier, safer and more environmentally sound and socially responsible business is embedded in our long-term business strategy…

The Next Generation Of Retail

Sweden Opens World's First Mall for Repaired and Recycled Goods

A new generation of recycling has now gone from local drop-off centers to a shopping mall that sells only repaired or upcycled products. The new recycling establishment, ReTuna Ã…terbruksgalleria, has nothing to do with the fish; instead, it was named after the Swedish town in which the building is located, Eskilstuna, Sweden. style="display:inline-block;width:300px;height:250px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-8420654331411867" data-ad-slot="1313712966"> The…

Monday, April 03, 2017

Questions And Worries Persist In China

China's external debt expected to grow, risks controllable

BEIJING - China's external debt will steadily increase in 2017, but associated risks are controllable, the country's foreign exchange regulator said Friday. Outstanding external debt totaled $1.42 trillion at the end of 2016, up 2.7 percent year on year, according to a statement from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). The debt has grown for…

This Is Odd, Can It Really Be This Good?

China's central bank skips open market operations

BEIJING - China's central bank on Saturday skipped the open market operations of reverse repos. This was the seventh consecutive business day that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has halted the open market operations of reverse repos, a process where it purchases securities from banks with an agreement to sell them back in the future.…

Sunday, April 02, 2017

Vultures Circling London's Post-Brexit Corpse

French financial companies want a slice of London's business after Brexit

Britain has begun divorce proceedings with the European Union. But could this signal a change of dance partner too for financial firms looking to do business with Europe? France is capitalizing on the uncertainty of Brexit by presenting itself as a viable new base for the financial services industry, banks and investment houses at the heart…

Set For A Possible Spike In Oil?

Rebels Vow to Stop South Sudan Oil Production

The main rebel group in South Sudan is threatening to disrupt oil production in the country, a day after it released three foreign oil workers it kidnapped earlier in the month. An official of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM IO) said the government is using oil revenue to purchase weapons and kill civilians.…

Over-Leveraged Distressed Assets Continue To Be Exchanged In China

Debt-for-equity program speeds up

Lenders pushing to reduce companies' high leverage levels China's biggest banks are accelerating their debt-for-equity program to offload distressed debts and to help reduce high corporate leverage. The country's big five lenders pledged in their annual…

I Would Imagine In Several Ways Given What's Happened Already

How Russia Benefits From a Trump Presidency

Quora Questions are part of a partnership between Newsweek and Quora, through which we'll be posting relevant and interesting answers from Quora contributors throughout the week. Read more about the partnership here. Answer from Ross Cohen, news junkie: If anyone doubts Russia is benefiting from the Donald Trump presidency, they just haven’t thought about it enough.…