Friday, June 30, 2017

Crowd Funding As An Alternative To Banks, Traditional Lenders

Fintech Is Rebuilding Capital Markets From The Ground Up

Capital markets are kind of like poetry: The words imply many different things at once and the profitable industry behind it is dominated by a well-educated elite fluent in complicated words that make little sense in the world of what we can see, taste and touch. Unlike poetry, it’s never sexy to rattle off capital market…

Greenland Might Actually Be Green One Day, Resource Companies Salivating

Clear summer skies are making Greenland's ice sheet melt even faster

The icy island is having a meltdown. Greenland's ice sheet under the sparse cloud cover. University of Bristol Greenland may be on the way to living up to its name—and that's not a good thing. For 18 million years, the vast expanses of Earth’s largest island (no, Australia doesn’t count) have been covered by the aptly-named…

Dangerous Forward Looking States For The Planet

If you live in the South, climate change could kill your economy

Northern states might actually profit as the planet warms. This article will probably make you wish that you lived in Seattle. Pexels Union County, Florida is 250 square miles, nestled in the middle of the state’s pan—not the handle—about an hour southwest of Jacksonville and nearly as far from the state’s southern border. Residents depend on…

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Dominance Increasingly Difficult In A Polyglot Energy Market

Is energy 'dominance' the right goal for US policy?

By Daniel Raimi, Senior research associate (Resources for the Future), Lecturer (University of Michigan Ford School of Public Policy), University of Michigan. The surge in U.S. oil and natural gas production has transformed the energy picture in the country, but the influence is muted globally. Pixabay In recent weeks, a new energy buzzword has taken flight…

Online Music Business Models Still Trying To Gain Traction

As Spotify and Pandora struggle, Apple Music lowers its subscription prices

CUPERTINO, Calif. — Apple's latest move to corner the music streaming market came quietly but is expected to reverberate quickly. Earlier this month, Apple Music unveiled a $99 yearly subscription option, tucked deep in the Music settings inside the App Store. The subscription breaks down to $8.25 a month, nearly $1.75 cheaper than the standard $9.99…

Green Continues To Grow

Rising Green Bond Market Supports Eco-Friendly Projects

Green bonds are debt instruments designed to finance environment-friendly projects. With most of the world now more strongly aligned on tackling climate change, governments and institutions are increasingly recognizing the potential of the green bond market as a significant transformational force to achieve carbon-reduction goals. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the global issuance of green…

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Dude, That's Like, Out-Of-Control Man

Canada Expected To Run Out Of Weed Following Legalization

A lot of complications arise with legalizing recreational marijuana, but for Canada, the country's biggest challenge is growing enough weed to satisfy demand. The country’s minister of finance, Charles Sousa, said that the country is currently navigating how to deal with the shortage, reports Bloomberg. Read: Why Synthetic Cannabinoids Are A Dangerous Marijuana Alternative “Ultimately the…

Self Driving Market Begins To Get Crowded

Waymo Partners With Avis For Self-Driving Testing, Stock Prices Jump

Like many self-driving car companies, Waymo has an extensive testing and research presence in Arizona. To help with their testing, Waymo has now joined up with an unlikely partner. Waymo announced Monday car rental company Avis Budget Group would help manage its fleet of self-driving cars in the state, Bloomberg reported. As part of the partnership,…

Ha ha ha ha ha ha....Oh Wait, You Were Being Serious

Audit report: China's local government debt under control

The overall risk of China's government debt is under control and the momentum of steady economic growth is being maintained, according to the country's top auditor. The National Audit Office (NAO) said in a press release that mechanisms such as quota management, budget management, risk disposal and regular supervision are being improved, and the momentum of…

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Muscling In Right On America's Backdoor

Mexican officials keen to bolster agricultural trade with China

MEXICO CITY - Mexican officials agree that it is high time to bolster agricultural trade ties with China, as the country needs to diversify its trade, given the uncertainty of its relationship with its northern neighbor. "Opening and strengthening the channels of trade with powers such as China is very important for us," and so is…

Private Launches Continue To Rise With Increased Payloads And Frequency

SpaceX launches Falcon 9 rocket carrying 10 communications satellites

LOS ANGELES — A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifted off successfully Sunday afternoon from Vandenberg Air Force Base's Western Range in California, carrying a payload of 10 commercial communications satellites in an important test of the company's ability to increase launch rates. The first stage of the Falcon 9 landed without incident on Space X's West…

From Development To Investment, The Change Occuring In Africa

Changing Perceptions on Display at U.S.-Africa Business Summit in DC

"We must change the lenses with which we look at Africa from the traditional development mindset to an investment mindset," Akinwumi Adesina, president of the African Development Bank (AfDB), told last week's U.S.-Africa Business Summit. "American companies come to Africa bringing their notebooks, while the Chinese companies come to the continent with their checkbooks," Adesina said…

Growth Rate At China's Levels, Parts Of Africa Continue To Roar

Tanzania Flying Economy Brightens Africa Growth

Tanzania is among Africa's top economic performers expected to brighten Africa growth outlook of 3.0 trillion US dollars by 2030, according to Ernst & Young's 'Attractive Programme Africa 2017' report. With growth forecast of 7.1 per cent in 2017, albeit slight down from earlier projections of 7.2 and enjoying the longest run of economic growth averaging…

Monday, June 26, 2017

Lines Continue To Be Drawn In Gulf Region

Bahrain's FM in about-face over Turkish base in Qatar

Just over two weeks after dismissing any links between Turkish military's presence in Qatar to an ongoing Gulf crisis, Bahrain's foreign minister appears to have performed a complete u-turn. Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed al-Khalifa on Monday accused Qatar of creating a "military escalation" in the regional diplomatic dispute, in an apparent reference to the long-planned deployment…

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Blockchain Venture Capital Heats Up

Google Ventures Invests In Bitcoin Startup Blockchain

A bitcoin startup called Blockchain just raised $40 million from Google Ventures, billionaire Richard Branson and venture capital firms like Lakestar. Combined with earlier investments from the startup’s A round, Blockchain has raised around $70 million and become one of the best-funded cryptocurrency startups of 2017, behind power players like Ripple and Coinbase. The company claims…

Funny Side Effect Of The Qatari Controversy

Qatar Issue May Affect China's Soft Power as Biggest Property Buyer

China's soft power as the world's biggest property buyer is under severe strain due to a government crackdown on capital flight and the Qatar controversy, which is expected to drive a lot of Arab money into the property market in western countries. Qatar citizens are desperately looking for alternative investment avenues as Saudi Arabia and the…

Reigning In Profligate Spending Or Increasing Government Control?

China Probe of Big Companies Could Redefine Their Role Overseas

China is probing the loan practices of a group of big private sector conglomerates who have been on a high-profile global spending spree over the past few years. And although the review targets only a few of the country’s most politically-connected companies, some analysts see an attempt to increase government control over the role played by…

I Think People Are Just Unwinding Longs

Crude Oil Bounces Back Above $45 Per Barrel, Despite Glut

Crude oil thursday edged up from multi-month low, but prices remained under pressure from a supply glut that has persisted despite the efforts led by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to balance the market. Brent crude futures were up 60 cents thursday at $45.42 per barrel, after falling as low as $44.53. They fell…

Yeah, Good Luck With That

Senate Democrats Urge Trump Administration To Block AT&T-Time Warner Merger

A group of senators urged the U.S. Department of Justice and the Trump administration Wednesday to block a proposed merger of telecommunications giant AT&T and content producer Time Warner. The group, led by Al Franken, D-Minn., sent a letter to the office of Attorney General Jeff Sessions advocating the Justice Department intervene on the $85.4 billion…

Saturday, June 24, 2017

Buying 10% Of United Won't Stop Saudi Arabia's Vendetta Against You

Qatar Airways wants to buy 10 percent stake in American Airlines

FORT WORTH, Texas — Qatar Airways wants to purchase a 10 percent stake in American Airlines, a move called "puzzling" by the Fort Worth-based airline's top executive and criticized by union leaders. In a memo to employees, CEO Doug Parker noted that American has repeatedly criticized the state-owned Persian Gulf airlines for violating trade agreements and…

Going The Way Of Kodak, Atari, and Pontiac

Sears announces 20 more closings

CHICAGO — Sears Holdings Corp. is closing 20 more stores. Those closings — including 18 Sears and two Kmart stores — follow 150 stores Sears shuttered in the first quarter of this year and another 66 expected to close by early September. The latest 20 are among the 235 locations Sears, headquartered outside Chicago, sold to…

"Submit Or Die"

Arab states 'issue list of demands' to end Qatar crisis

Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries that have cut ties to Qatar reportedly issued a list of demands to end the crisis, insisting that Qatar shuts down the Al Jazeera network and cuts back diplomatic ties with Iran. In the 13-point list, the countries also demand that Qatar sever all alleged ties with the Muslim Brotherhood…

Friday, June 23, 2017

It's Been Like This For Over A Year

Canada’s TSX Index Teeters at Major Support/Restistance

By -

After reaching all-time highs earlier this year, Canada’s TSX Index has dropped to around the 15,250 level, as shown on the following Monthly chart…an important long-term major support/resistance level.
The latest drop has been halted by a very high volume spike around the 200-day moving average, shown on the Daily chart below.
This index has, historically, been tied to the price of crude oil, as can be seen on the graph below, although it didn’t experience the same dramatic drop as oil did in 2014.

So, as I mentioned in my post of  June 21, if oil can regain and hold 43.50, and if the recent high-volume spike on the TSX was an indication of capitulation, we may see a rally ensue in both of these markets. Otherwise, weakness in one may drag the other down, as well…two charts worth watching in the short term.

Thursday, June 22, 2017

Yeah, I Guess You Buy-Low Sell-High

Chinese entrepreneurs tour UK, seeking value-for-money investments

A group of about 30 Chinese entrepreneurs are participating in a weeklong tour of the United Kingdom in search of value-for-money investment opportunities amid Brexit uncertainties. "We want to make good use of our trip to learn about how Brexit affects the UK's business environment, government policies, and investment restrictions," said Yang Xia, chairman of Hong…

Colonialism v2.0: The Russians Now Join China And Japan In Africa Scramble

Russia Keen to Invest in Zimbabwe

Russia has shown keen interest in investing in the country's industries with its private sector expected to visit the country to follow up on deals that were discussed on June 3 in St Petersburg.The latest interest came after the recent business visit to Russia by a high-powered delegation led by Vice-President Phelekezela Mphoko together with Industry…

There Is Absolutely No Way This Plan Can Fail

Mike Pence pledges 'largest tax cut' since Reagan 'this year'

Vice President Mike Pence said Tuesday the White House and congressional Republicans will oversee passage of the largest tax cut since the Reagan administration, and that they'll get it done in 2017. "We're going to pass the largest tax cut since the days of Ronald Reagan, and we're going to do it this year," Mr. Pence…

The African Industrial Lion Begins To Roar

Ethiopia Begins Manufacturing Vehicles' Motors

The Ethiopian Power Engineering Industry organized under the Metals and Engineering Corporation said it has begun manufacturing motors for vehicles used for automotive, construction and agricultural activities. Industry General Manager Major Assefa Yohannes told the daily Addis Zemen that the industry has begun manufacturing motors that would help modernize the agriculture thereby advancing the industrial development.…

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Parity With The U.S. Dollar Here We Come

Sterling falls amid gloomy prospects for UK economy

British currency and stock markets fell on Tuesday after the governor of the Bank of England delivered a pessimistic speech about the prospects for the United Kingdom's economy as the nation prepares to leave the European Union. A twenty pounds banknote is seen in front of displayed stock graph in this picture illustration taken June 9,…

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Not Bloody Likely (As Monocle Drops Into Tea)

China-Britain trade, financial cooperation to endure despite Brexit

LONDON — Britain's decision to leave the European Union (EU) will not be a handicap to collaboration between Britain and China in financial services and trade, according to James Sassoon, chairman of the China-Britain Business Council (CBBC). "Bilateral trade, (Britain's) exports to China and the Chinese investment in the UK have grown very strongly and I…

Monday, June 19, 2017

Colonialism v2.0: Chinese Advanced Part Sent To Kenya

Chinese delegation in Kenya to look for investment opportunities

NAIROBI — Representatives of Chinese companies from Shenzhen, one of the most innovative cities in China, are in Nairobi to meet local investors to discuss investment opportunities in energy, trade, finance and agriculture sectors, officials said Friday. The Chinese delegation,led by Lu Pengqi, the vice chairman of China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, and…

China Continues To Open Up

China eases 27 foreign investment restrictions in FTZs

Skyscrapers are seen at the Bund in Shanghai, June 6, 2017. [Photo/VCG] SHANGHAI — China Friday published an updated list of bans or restrictions for foreign investment in its free trade zones, cutting 27 restrictions across eight sectors including mining, manufacturing and banking. In manufacturing, foreign companies are allowed to produce their own rail transport facilities,…

Fight Of The New Millennium

Amazon Pitted Against Walmart for Retail Supremacy

Web retailer Amazon is poised for a face off against Walmart after the online giant bought up the grocery store chain Whole Foods for $13.7 billion in cash Friday. Walmart’s in-store food grocery aisles and purchase of online retailer Jet.com for $3 billion last year show that the lines are blurring between online stores and their…

Capitalizing On Blockchain, Singapore Looks To Cash In

Meet The Fintech Queen of Singapore

Singapore is one of the leading hotspots for financial tech thanks to flexible regulation plus national initiatives to fund startups and integrate blockchain innovation into the local economy. American venture capitalists at the Ethereal Summit in New York praised Singapore as a ripe market, teeming with collaboration between entrepreneurs, regulators, banks and investors. The small island…

Sunday, June 18, 2017

While The Rest Of The World Moves Forward With The Paris Accord

Pilot zones will boost green finance

The central bank announced measures on Friday to support the establishment of five green finance pilot zones, a move to help upgrade the industrial structure and honor commitments under the framework of the Paris climate accord. Incentives will be established to boost the development of green finance, especially interest discounts and tax incentives, from the central…

How Much Is Too Much? This Much

China likely to halt new electric vehicle permits on glut concern

A visitor looks at an Iconiq Seven multi-purpose vehicle at the Shanghai auto show on April 19, 2017. [Photo provided to China Daily] Chinese authorities will likely halt issuing new permit to electric car makers, while looking to set a higher standard for entrants, media outlet The Paper reported on Thursday citing sources close to the…

Saturday, June 17, 2017

It Continues To Read Like Shakespeare

Trump's Businesses Have A History Of Money-Laundering Charges

Special prosecutor Robert Mueller, appointed to lead the probe of alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election, is reportedly examining whether or not President Donald Trump’s associates violated money laundering laws. That scrutiny is hardly unfamiliar to Trump, as his business empire has been repeatedly sanctioned for violating those statutes. He even at one point…

Middle East Continues To Get Divided Into Blocks

Saudi Arabia Asks Pakistan: 'Are You With Us' or Qatar?

Pakistan is refusing to abandon its neutrality after being asked by Saudi Arabia to take a stance amid growing tensions between a number of Gulf Arab states and Qatar. Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif held a meeting Monday in Jedda during which Salman reportedly offered an ultimatum:…

Probably What The Rest Of The World Will Look Like In Ten Years

EU-GREECE - Greece escapes brush with bankruptcy but austerity still bites

Overshadowed by questions of ‘will they or won’t they’ make a deal, Greece obtained its third bailout from European creditors Thursday and a potential plan for debt relief. In the short-term however, ordinary Greeks remain shackled to austerity. Greece’s lifeline arrived on Thursday in the form of 8.5 billion euros ($9.5 billion) in new loans which…

We Need This, We Really Do

Small Craps

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The Slope PLUS post I did on June 9th pegged, ALMOST TO THE SECOND, the top in the Russell 2000 index. Since then, we’ve been weakening.

Observant readers may recall that I wouldn’t stop bitching about selling my QQQ puts too early. What I haven’t mentioned is that, over the past few days, I’ve been building up the exact same options position (again, July 21st puts, these priced at $142) against the IWM. I solemnly pledge not to completely bungle the exit on these.

As a reminder, I haven’t traded options in ages, and unlike you fancy folks, I am just a dumb old bear who buys puts. My little account is up about 40% since I started just a few weeks ago, though, and hopefully this IWM trade will make up for my “left too much on the table” QQQ trade. Here’s my fingers-crossed anticipation:
0616-IWM

The Unhackable Network

China achieves a quantum jump

Photo taken on Nov 26, 2016 shows a quantum communication ground station in Xinglong, North China's Hebei province. Chinese scientists on Thursday reported a major breakthrough in quantum communication: A pair of entangled photons over a distance of 1,200 km have been successfully transmitted from space to Earth. The previous record was about 100 km. [Photo/Xinhua]…

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Renewed Sanctions By U.S. Have Curtailed Critical Transactions, Brought Opponents Closer Together

Iranian agreement with Russia bypasses US dollar through bartering

Iran has signed an agreement with Russia to trade crude oil for products with US dollars entirely absent from the transaction. The deal, which has been confirmed by the Russian media and Iran governmental authorities, needs to bypass the world’s reserve currency entirely due to the restrictions on trade in US dollars in Iranian banks. The…

African Economies Continue To Show Life And Resilience

Nigeria on 'Path to Progress' With $23.7 Billion Budget

Nigeria’s “path to progress and abundance is clear” according to the country’s vice-president Yemi Osinbajo, who signed a record 7.44 trillion naira ($23.7 billion) budget on Monday aimed at dragging the African giant out of recession. Osinbajo, Nigeria’s acting president while President Muhammadu Buhari is in the U.K. on medical leave, signed off the 2017 spending…

Critical Geopolitical Pivot In Central America

Panama breaks off diplomatic ties with Taiwan, takes up with China

Taipei (dpa) - Panama on Monday broke off more than a century of diplomatic relations with Taiwan and established them with China, the country's president said. "I'm communicating to the country and to the world that Panama and the People's Republic of China have established diplomatic relations today," President Juan Carlos Varela wrote on Twitter. The…

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Probably Other Species Threatened, Too

Chinese Demand Threatens South Africa’s Donkeys

Mpho Mashele’s eight donkeys are her most precious possessions, and her family’s lifeline. They use them to transport goods in this small, rural village north of South Africa’s capital, Pretoria. “We love our donkeys because they’re the only source of income,” she said. “Without them, we will starve.” That threat is looming ever-larger amid a spike…

China's Network Spreads Further

China, Tajikistan mull high-end, innovative cooperation under Belt & Road Initiative

ASTANA - Chinese President Xi Jinping and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon met here Friday on carrying forward bilateral cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative and deepening their strategic partnership. China and Tajikistan are neighbors with close relations and strategic partners with high-level mutual trust, said Xi. The two countries have maintained close high-level contacts, achieved…

Monday, June 12, 2017

Market Correlations And The Unending March Higher

The Stock Market Just Broke

By -

The market made a new all-time high this past week. However, the manner in which it pulled back from that all-time high on Friday has caused me to slightly modify my expectations.

I have now seen about a dozen articles over the last week, mostly presented as head-scratching ramblings, discussing the breakdown of so many “correlations.” One of the recent articles noted:

“Under normal circumstances, you could wake up on any given day, take one look at the yen, and make a pretty solid prediction about how Treasurys traded overnight and/or how the Nikkei held up. And vice versa. Lately, that relationship has broken down almost entirely.”

And, in early 2017, even Morgan Stanley had taken notice:

“Regional correlations, cross-asset correlations and individual stock and FX correlations have fallen simultaneously. That’s unusual; we haven’t seen a shift this severe in over a decade . . .”

Yet, despite pointing out how the market does not make sense, some of the same authors attempt to use the paradigms that broke down in order to explain that which they say does not make sense. Yes, you heard me right. They recognize that their analysis methodology has failed to keep them on the correct side of the market, yet attempt to explain that failure using the same methods which they noted have failed them.

One attempted to “explain” why correlations have broken down through a, as he put it, “truly torturous, yet completely plausible, explanation for what we’re seeing in equities and rates.”

So, rather than assuming the old paradigms were simply wrong and led them to look the wrong way in the market, many have gone to “truly torturous explanations.” Has anyone ever heard of the term Occam’s Razor?

I would imagine this is akin to attempting to cross a river with a row boat that has a hole at the bottom, sinking, fishing out the row boat, and trying again. Would you not at least attempt to fix the hole or even buy a new boat before attempting to cross the river again?

 I wish I could say I am surprised by the confusion in the market. But, the makings for this “storm” were quite evident well over a year ago, as I had been warning the members of my trading room that this will likely occur.

Now, I have to note that the most insightful things I have found after reading a dozen articles about the correlation break downs were in the comments section rather than the articles themselves:

“So the whole premise here is that two different things used to act similarly, but now they aren’t. Couldn’t the simple explanation be that those two different things are acting differently because they are not the same thing?”
“if the market was as logical as 2+2, we would all be rich. The most astute investors accept, embrace, expect disconnects and non sequitur in the “markets and (gasp) — even make money despite of (because of) it. And they always do so.”
“A lot of things appear to be disconnecting. Makes you wonder if they were ever connected in the first place.”

You see, the biggest problem here is too many equate correlations with causation. Moreover, they rely on these correlations as if G-d himself were speaking to them about what the market is going to do. And, when these seeming correlations break down, they are left with a host of losses and no way to explain why they are on the wrong side of the market.

I have noted this many times before. If you are trying to trade based upon some seeming correlation then you are doing more analysis steps than necessary. First, you have to perform analysis to get the direction of the correlative asset correct. Second, you have to “hope” that the correlative asset maintains the same seeming correlative relationship with the underlying asset. Hence, you require a two-phase step, one of which is based upon “hope,” in order to make money. Would it not be much simpler and easier to analyze the chart before you and see what it is saying rather than performing the dubious two-phase process just noted? You certainly take the “hope” out of the equation that way.
I mean, if your analysis methodology is sound enough to provide a strong directional bias for the correlative asset, should you not be able to perform that analysis on the underlying asset directly?
Moreover, just because two assets seem to be moving in the same direction or even in opposite directions for a period of time, why would you rely on that continuing ad infinitum? I mean, applying linear analysis directly to a single non-linear market alone comes with great pitfalls, and you want to add a second layer of linear analysis on top of it? Unless you understand the market beyond a superficial seeming correlation, you will never have forewarning as to when such correlations may break. So, yes, placing your money in the market based upon correlations is doing no more than “hoping.”

Anyone that has followed any form of inter-market analysis over the last few years understands the huge flaws in such methods. They have seriously underperformed the market due to their multi-layered linear perspectives that were unable to identify the shifting correlative paradigms in the market. And, sadly, ,many have still not recognized it.

Last weekend, I noted that if 2420SPX held as support, we should expect to head higher. While we certainly held support and headed higher, the manner in which the market reacted on Friday suggests that we are one wave degree ahead of where I expected at this time.

Therefore, the modified support region I put out this past week in my trading room was the 2410SPX region. As long as that holds, I am looking for a rally up to the 2473SPX region into the end of the month.
A break of that region will cause me to re-assess the potential for the 2500SPX region to be struck before the fall.
Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

Just As China Is Developing Its Own Aircraft Industry

China to become world's largest air market: Airbus official

Travellers at Meilan International Airport in Haikou, Hainan province, Sept 19, 2015. [Photo/VCG] PARIS - "Asia Pacific continues to be an engine for growth, with domestic China to become the world's largest market," said John Leahy, chief operating officer - Customers of Commercial Aircraft, of the European aircraft maker Airbus on Friday. "Air travel is remarkably…

Remarkable Since Everyone Is Getting Impeached In Brazil

Brazilian Economy Registers First Growth in Two Years

After years of financial distress and struggle, the Brazilian economy grew by 1%, according to government agencies. During the first three months of 2017, the Brazilian GDP grew by 1% as compared to the two previous years. This translates to an increase of nearly $500 billion dollars in production of goods and services.

Challenges Remain

12 Signs Nigeria's Economy Is Getting Healthier

Nigeria's economy is on the path of recovery and growth after several months of abysmal performance and contraction. Here are 15 signs that show that the economy is getting healthier by the day: Narrowing GDP contraction The negative economic growth in Nigeria which started at the first quarter of 2016 has starting narrowing in the first…

Sunday, June 11, 2017

We Should Be So Lucky

Britain’s Conservatives Plunged Into Civil War

Pressure is growing on Prime Minister Theresa May to announce her intention to resign in the next few months. Senior Conservatives told VOA it is only a matter of time before May, who’s scrambling to hang on to power, has to go. They say she faces the choice between either agreeing to go quietly or facing…

Mediation Sorely Needed In Latest Mideast Crisis

Kuwait: Qatar ready to heal Gulf rift

Kuwait on Sunday said that Qatar is willing to hold a dialogue with Gulf Arab countries that cut ties with it and was ready to listen to their concerns, in the latest twist of a major diplomatic rift. Kuwait has led a mediation effort to defuse an escalating crisis after Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates…

Yeah, But This Could Get Drawn Out For Years Before Anything Happens

Will Trump Be Investigated For Obstruction Of Justice?

A former U.S. attorney claims there is enough evidence to begin a case against Donald Trump for obstruction of justice. Preet Bharara said in an interview with ABC’s The Week that Trump’s alleged effort to dissuade then-FBI director James Comey from pursuing an investigation into former national security director Michael Flynn’s contacts with Russia merited an…

Friday, June 09, 2017

Cause Of A Possible Spike To Oil Prices

Militants Threaten to Resume Bombing of Oil Facilities in Delta

A militant group, New Delta Avengers, yesterday vowed to resume disruption of oil exploration activities in Delta State. The militants declared "Operation Cripple Oil and Gas Production' saying they would use any means available to achieve their aim. Spokesman of the group, Cpl Oleum Bellum, said they were putting the Federal Government and oil companies -…

More Worrying Polarization In Middle East

Analysis: Why is Turkey deploying troops to Qatar?

Only two days after Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain severed diplomatic relations with Qatar for its alleged support of "terrorist organisations", Turkey's parliament has ratified military deals allowing its troops to be deployed to a Turkish military base in Qatar. Turkish analysts talking to Al Jazeera interpreted the move as "an apparent…

Thursday, June 08, 2017

Despite Paris Withdrawl, Clean Technology Continues To Progress

Wyoming wind power plans to sail into California

California is known across the nation not just as the most populous state in the union, or the home of Hollywood, America’s entertainment capital, but also for having very progressive environmental policies. These ambitious policies have set California up to be the most environmentally friendly state in the nation as far as its power consumption goes.…

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Huge Win For SpaceX, Commercial Rocket Market Continues To Be Hot

SpaceX To Launch X-37B For First Time, Not ULA’s Atlas V

GEOINT: In news sure to rock the launch industry, the mighty United Launch Alliance today failed to be named as the company launching the X-37B spaceplane. Instead, Elon Musk’s SpaceX will carry it for the first time, marking what is believed to be the company’s heaviest national security launch to date. The Air Force announced this…

Stores Continue To Look Cooked, Topping Pattern Firmly In Place

Retailpalooza

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Although the market in general has been steadily making never-before-seen highs this year, I have been doing pretty well with my nothing-but-shorts trading. A few sectors of special concentration for me have been energy, financials, and retail.


This last one in particular did nicely for me today, as a variety of shorts were smashed by Macy’s. Looking at the big ETF retail fund below, you can see the topping pattern is still forming, although there is a pattern-within-a-pattern tinted in green that’s very close to failing.
0606-XRT
Looking closer, you can see a clear-as-glass example of a massive head and shoulders pattern. I haven’t covered a single short in retail, and I look forward to much greater gains.
0606-XRETBIG
In fact, Monday morning my first post of the trading day suggested to Short Dicks, and, well, that turned out quite nicely.
0606-DKS
I’m going to go into a much more detail with my Slope Plus readers now, but those are my basic thoughts.

Blockchain and Financial Tech Continues To Boom

Blockchain Jobs More Popular Than Ever On LinkedIn

The blockchain job market is booming. The Financial Times reported there were more than 1,000 blockchain-related job advertisements on LinkedIn last week, three times the number posted the same time last year. More than 9,945 LinkedIn profiles list “blockchain” as one of their professional skills. Another job hunting platform, Indeed, currently lists around 367 American blockchain…

Global Economic Health Continues To Look Precarious

Like Nigeria, South Africa Slips Into Recession

South Africa has entered recession for the first time in eight years, data from Statistics South Africa showed on Tuesday. Data from Statistics South Africa in Pretoria showed the first quarter contraction was led by weak manufacturing and trade. The data showed that South Africa's economy contracted by 0.7 per cent in the first three months…

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

Gold Miners Aren't Looking Hot At The Moment

Gold Miners in 2017 Whipsaw

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Ever since 2012’s failure of the ‘QE 3 rally’ in the precious metals it has not been fruitful to micro manage the gold sector, because that failure jump started a savage bear market that would need time to work out the excesses both in the sector’s investor base and in its mining businesses, which had become bloated and inefficient. That’s what bear markets do; they clean out the landscape to make it inhabitable for new investors one day. Here is a weekly chart showing the bear’s kickoff. HUI’s 55 week EMA then became the ball and chain that kept its fate sealed (red arrows) until January of 2016.
hui
In anticipating the next bull phase, we use several different charts (daily, weekly, monthly) and macro indicators (like the components of the Macrocosm to gauge the process (see this post from February 2016 for a look at how the Macrocosm’s planets were aligned at the beginning of the last significant bull phase).
macrocosm, nftrh 363
Daily charts have not yet triggered the all clear, the monthly chart is constructive and the weekly chart below shows HUI still underneath the EMA 55. Ever since the correction that began in the summer of 2016 however, the index has been in a whipsaw battle with this key moving average. Traders probably love this, but those trying to confirm a new bull trend (not to mention a bear resumption) have been frustrated. Adding more weight to the EMA 55’s resistance is the fact that this area is also a neckline to a bearish pattern (as highlighted).


The bulls do have a hit of the 62% Fib retrace in December of 2016 going for them, although as long as HUI remains below the EMA 55 (198.73) a possibility of a test of the December 2016 low (or possibly even lower) remains in play. What would break the whipsaw’s grip? A break to the upside and a clearing of the April and February highs.
hui
By other work we are doing, May’s monthly close was an important boost for the bullish case (ref. the above-linked post for the monthly chart). But a monthly chart is tricky; what matters is the monthly close, so understand that June could include a whole lot of whipsaw and still end up constructive. The technicals are what they are and on the index, they are not yet bullish and indeed, lean bearish below the EMA 55.


But the sector as a whole is diverged by some relative quality companies, large and small. Larger royalties and miners like Royal Gold, Franco Nevada, Randgold Resources and smaller ones like Wesdome, Kirkland Lake and Sabina seem to be making an early bullish call on the sector.
But first the technical struggle with HUI’s weekly EMA 55 (among a range of other technical parameters) and the fundamental struggle with the Macrocosm (with gold vs. commodities generally looking constructive, but important items like the stock market’s persistent strength and the still okay economy remaining important holdouts to the bull case).


Of course the 1999-2001 time frame, which we are using as a ‘comp’ to the current situation, featured a booming economy… until it no longer boomed, and a booming stock market… until it blew out (Nasdaq) and finally rolled over (Dow and S&P 500).


So be patient gold bugs. Tune out the perma-pom pom promoters and do good, diligent work and things may well set up just fine and one day, much better than fine. Meanwhile, with literally a world of bulling stock markets, bearish commodities and a bond market that is soon to set up an opposite contrarian situation to the one we began highlighting in December, I plan to make sure NFTRH is continually on the job sorting things out rationally, as we have been doing for years, over the various cycles.

Still, It Looks Like Silver A Few Years Back

Bitcoin Climbing to Sky

By -


This caught my eye this evening…………
0604-newhigh
I was curious what the Commodity King had to say, since he’s been bad-mouthing bitcoin a lot lately, so I did a Google search. It didn’t take me but a moment to find his take on it from January 2014. We can see, thanks to SlopeCharts, how it’s done since then.
0605-bitcoin

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Monday, June 05, 2017

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India Launches Heavy Lift Rocket

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A Pioneer Stands Alone

Michael Bloomberg Pledges $15Mil to Ensure U.S. Fulfills Paris Climate Accord

In response to President Trump's decision to withdraw the United States from participation in the Paris climate accord, Michael Bloomberg said Thursday that his nonprofit foundation would commit $15 million to fill the gap left by the U.S. government backing out of the 2015 global agreement. On Friday the billionaire announced the creation of "America's Pledge,"…