Sunday, August 20, 2017

Dipping Our Toes In The Risk Pool?

I have made two previously disastrous calls on VIX in the past. Yes, there was a tepid rise from my previous signals but it wasn't the all-consuming breakout I had been hoping for and expecting. Numerous things could have stoked my interest at the time not least of which is the phenomenal payoff that will come when I or someone else finally gets it right. This is now the third time that I am putting a tentative "buy" signal on VXX. A lot of interesting things have happened in the last few weeks and as it turns out it has been geopolitical tensions and the black hole of American domestic politics that that I think have made people look at VXX as an appropriate hedge. The divergence in the Fed balance sheet and the rise of S&P continues to be my guiding light for where the market is headed, and granted we may get a bounce here, but the Russell looks to be putting in a rounding top pattern. VXX itself is still in bearish territory below the EMA(144) which means it merits extreme caution, but the volume bars do not lie. We've had some phenomenal rises with the EMA(8) crossing the EMA(13) meaning we put it on our buy watchlist. Curiously, a possible inverse head-and-shoulders pattern could be going in with a gap that needs to be filled around $16.00. My prediction is that gap will be filled on this rise.