Friday, September 29, 2017

Colonialism v2.0: Chinese Beach Head In Kenya

Bilateral Relations Between Kenya and China to Yield Economic Benefits

Chinese Ambassador to Kenya Liu Xianfa says he is confident that the bilateral relations between his country and Kenya will continue to yield benefits for both parties economically. He cited the remarkable infrastructural development so far undertaken by China--including the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) as one of the milestones achieved so far. "China and Kenya are…

Maybe He'll Finally Pass Some Major Legislation

Trump, GOP tax plan has a lot for businesses to like, and a lot of questions for everyone else

WASHINGTON — The Republican tax overhaul has a lot for businesses to like — and a lot of unanswered questions for everyone else. According to the plan, which Republican officials outlined on Wednesday, many businesses would see a huge reduction in their tax bills and many middle-class Americans would see tax relief. The plan would reduce…

The Infrastructure Model Electric Cars Should Be Built On

Electric car-sharing service to roll into Singapore

An electric car-sharing service will be launched in Singapore in December, in what the company behind the scheme said Wednesday was a first for Southeast Asia. BlueSG, a subsidiary of France's Bollore Group, said that 80 cars and 30 stations where vehicles can be picked up and dropped off would be operational by the end of…

Debt Is Cheap Now, But I Kind Of Feel They Should Have Started This Process A Few Years Ago

Saudi Arabia in huge new bond sale to finance deficit

Saudi Arabia on Thursday announced it had undertaken another multi-billion dollar bond sale to finance a persistent budget deficit left by low oil prices. The world's top crude oil exporter raised $12.5 billion (10.6 billion euros) in its third international bond issue, the finance ministry said. It comes as Saudi Arabia pursues economic and social reforms…

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Them's The Breaks: Technology ETF XLK Also Looses Support

I wrote earlier how QQQ seemed to have broken down from an ascending bearish wedge and it appears that Technology ETF XLK has done the same thing. Support right now looks pretty good $56.50 but it's anyone's guess what happens from here. Lots of long-term resistance levels are being met across the market so perhaps this is the beginning of a healthy retracement.

Whoops!! QQQ And Broken Support Level

ETF QQQ has just broken a key support of what appears to be an ascending bearish wedge. It's quite a shallow wedge which makes the support levels not-too-far-away, around $141 or $135. Does this forecast a rounding top pattern? Is this the beginning of a correction? Whatever it is markets are far too fizzy at this point and a healthy retracement I think is what is needed at this stage.

Tuesday, September 26, 2017


More US business economists see 'downside' economic risks

Amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump's growth agenda, US economists increasingly are worried about risks to the economy, though they see little chance of a recession near term, according to a survey released on Monday. The National Association for Business Economists quarterly survey showed little change in the forecasts compared with June in key areas such…

Jumping On The Space Bandwagon, Mate

Australia to create national space agency

Australia on Monday committed to creating a national space agency as it looks to cash in on the lucrative and fast-evolving astronautical sector. The announcement came at a week-long Adelaide space conference attended by the world's top scientists and experts including SpaceX chief Elon Musk. It brings Canberra -- which already has significant involvement in national…

Regional Instability To Continue, But Now Kurdistan Is In A Giant Pincer Movement

Iran and Turkey Prepare for War in Iraq, Peace in Syria

Traditional Middle East rivals Iran and Turkey have found themselves united of late by their mutual opposition to Kurdish independence in Iraq and common interest in ending the six-year war in Syria, among other leading issues in the region. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke Sunday by phone, expressing major concerns…

Unfortunately I Think North Korea Is In The Driver's Seat Here

North Korea says Trump has declared war

North Korea's foreign minister on Monday accused US President Donald Trump of declaring war against his country and said Pyongyang was ready to defend itself by shooting down US bombers. The latest threats stoked a week-long war of words that began when the American leader threatened in his address to the United Nations General Assembly to…

Monday, September 25, 2017

It's Like Getting A Glimpse Into The Future For The Rest Of Us

Greece and economic recovery: Fake news in action

Ten years ago, the implosion of Lehman Brothers ignited a financial crisis whose impact and effects were felt virtually across the globe as banks and financial institutions everywhere that were exposed to subprime lending, formed part of a long chain of complicated and interconnected derivatives, and partook freely in Wall Street shenanigans. In Europe, the global…

Slowly Yielding To Outside Market Forces

China rust belt opens door wider to foreign investors

Trucks carrying hi-tech car components rumble in and out the gates of an American industrial zone in the heart of China's rust belt -- using roads that the city especially renovated for the complex. While foreign firms complain about being locked out of large swathes of China's vast market, the door has cracked open a bit…

Sunday, September 24, 2017

Well D'uh, This Is Kind Of A No-Brainer

Calling The TBT Low...Where Is Yield Heading Next?
On September 6, with the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) reaching a new low (33.32) in its 7-month corrective process, we noted that “Dec-Sep correction could be at or nearing a downside exhaustion.”
Our RSI and MACD indicators showed a glaring non-confirmation of the low — and sure enough after the TBT dipped to a new low of 32.99 the next day, it went on to rally over the next four sessions, and reached a high of 35.25 this past Wednesday. On that same day, Wed Sep 20, the Federal Open Market Committee said it will keep the federal funds rate in a range of 1-1.25%, but Fed officials intimated that they may raise rates one more time by year-end, and three times during 2018, in addition to starting Quantitative Tightening in October– the slow, steady reduction of its bloated $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
With the Fed intending to normalize monetary policy after years of “easy money,” 10-Year Yield has been in a 14-month budding bull market (which is bullish for the TBT). The bull market in yield began with the July 2016 low of 1.32%, which ended the 35-year bear market. As long as any forthcoming weakness in yield preserves 2.03%, my preferred scenario calls for buying pullbacks in the 2.16%- 2.12% support zone (if able) ahead of a powerful next upleg. What exactly could or will be the catalyst for the emergence of the next powerful upleg in yield is anyone’s guess, from a sudden surge in latent inflation precipitated by a resumption of acute US Dollar weakness, to a surprising passage of stimulus and tax reduction legislation that elevates growth and inflationary expectations, to a loss of bond investor confidence in the efficacy of the Trump Administration.
Whatever the supposed reasons, all eyes on two yield levels: the recent low-zone at 2.10%-2.04%, and key resistance at 2.37%-2.40%, which if (when?) taken out, will trigger new, powerful buy signals for both yield and the TBT.

It's Okay, No One Understands

Moody's downgrades Britain debt rating on Brexit uncertainties

Moody's cut Britain's long-term credit rating Friday, citing economic uncertainty sparked by complex Brexit negotiations and the likelihood of weaker public finances. The ratings agency cut the debt grade one notch to Aa2 from Aa1 with a stable outlook, which reflects expectations Britain's debt will "continue to rise," and worries that whatever trade agreement is reached…

Future Of Air Travel Is Regional, But Who Will Dominate?

Budget airlines to drive plane demand in next 20 years: Boeing

Smaller planes will dominate aviation orders worldwide in the next 20 years, driven by the needs of budget airlines in emerging markets like Southeast Asia, Boeing said Friday. Nearly three in four of the 41,030 new commerical planes expected to be delivered in the period at a cost of $6.1 trillion will be single-aisle, according to…

They Still Have Coal But It's A Help

China Limits Exports of Oil to North Korea, Bans LNG

China announced Saturday that it will limit exports of petroleum products to North Korea to comply with United Nations Security Council sanctions on the North's nuclear and missile development programs. The Chinese Commerce Ministry said in a statement on its website that exports of refined petroleum to Pyongyang will be limited to 2 million barrels a…

Don't Think They're Going To Let You Cross Chinese Airspace To Reach North Korea

Fighter jets, drones on table as Mattis visits key ally India

Fighter jets, drone deals and shared concerns over Afghanistan's security challenges look set to dominate the agenda when US Defence Secretary James Mattis visits India this week. Mattis is scheduled to arrive in Delhi late Monday and is set to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his new defence minister in the first visit by…

Thursday, September 21, 2017

What A Good Idea

Norway wealth fund hits 'milestone' $1 trillion value

Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world, on Tuesday reached the value of $1 trillion dollars for the first time, the Norwegian central bank, which manages the fund, said. This amount equals nearly $189,000 (157,000 euros) for each of the 5.3 million people living in Norway. Established in the 1990s to manage the Norwegian…

Good News For Gold

Beijing, Shanghai shut down bitcoin exchanges: media

Banking regulators in Beijing and Shanghai have ordered local cryptocurrency exchanges to shut down, state media reported Tuesday, in the latest blow to the once flourishing Chinese market for virtual money. A Beijing-based regulator required all exchanges in the city to cease operations by 6:00 pm on September 20, according to the official Xinhua news agency.…

Critical Merger With Sub-Continent/Europe

ThyssenKrupp, Tata to merge European steel operations

German heavy industry giant ThyssenKrupp and Indian group Tata agreed on Wednesday to merge their steel operations in Europe, taking second place in the continent's market behind ArcelorMittal. The two groups, which will finalise the deal in 2018, expect efficiency savings of between 400 and 600 million euros ($480-720 million) per year and are likely to…

Muscling In On China's Lucrative Airline Market

Airbus opens first overseas wide-body jet plant in China

People speak together near a scale model of an Airbus A330-200 during the Airbus annual news conference in Colomiers, near Toulouse January 13, 2015.[Photo/Agencies] Europe's largest aerospace company Airbus SE will open its first overseas completion and delivery center for wide-body aircraft in Tianjin, North China, on Wednesday, Bloomberg News reported. The center to be inaugurated…

Diamond In The Rough For Africa

Africa Will Become the Food Basket of the World รข€” Dangote

In a packed room at the headquarters of global law firm Shearman and Sterling LLC high level business leaders and international diplomats invited by the Corporate Council for Africa to hear Africa's richest man, Aliko Dangote, and Rwandan president Paul Kagame openly converse on Africa's opportunities and challenges. Both leaders underscored the ongoing movement to diversify…

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Great, But It Seems Like A Bit Of A Mutilated Victory If You Ask Me

US state grants $3 billion in tax incentives to Foxconn

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker signed a bill on Monday granting $3 billion in tax incentives to Foxconn, paving the way for the Taiwan electronics giant to build a manufacturing plant in the state. Foxconn, maker of Apple's iPhone, is expected to invest up to $10 billion to build a flat-screen facility in the state -- with…

Pushing Back Against Russian Encroachment

Germany Ordering Warships Amid Russia Resurgence

Germany is on the verge of striking a $2 billion deal for five new Braunschweig-class corvettes that would improve its capabilities and help meet NATO defense spending commitments. Parliament approved the funds for the vessels in June, and the German navy expects to receive the ships by 2025. They will each be equipped with a 76mm…

It's Okay, They Said The Same Thing To Scotland And All That Happened Was The U.K. Left E.U.

Spain warns Catalonia faces 'brutal' impoverishment if it leaves

Catalonia would suffer "brutal" impoverishment if it splits from Spain, with a deep plunge in its economic output, Spain's economy minister warned Monday ahead of a disputed independence referendum in the region. "The general impoverishment of the society would be brutal. GDP could fall between 25 and 30 percent and unemployment double," Economy Minister Luis de…

Am I The Only Person Bothered By This Development?

Navy's most advanced submarines will soon be using Xbox controllers

ABOARD USS JOHN WARNER — The control room of one of the Navy's most advanced submarines is filled with sophisticated computers, flat-screen monitors and sailors who grew up in a digital world. At times it can look a bit like a video game arcade, and not just because of the high-resolution graphics. The Navy is beginning…

With Permanent Russian Bases Right Next Door In Syria

In first, US establishes permanent military base in Israel

For the first time in history, the United States on Monday established an official, permanent military base in Israel: an air defense base in the heart of the Negev desert. Dozens of US Air Force soldiers will call home the new base, located inside the Israeli Air Force’s Mashabim Air Base, west of the towns of…

Monday, September 18, 2017

I Think Hurricane Harvey And Friends Will Change This

August auto slump holds down US retail sales

Sagging sales of autos held down overall US retail sales in August, with American consumers buying goods and services at their slowest pace in six months, government data showed Friday. However, the Commerce Department said it was unclear to what extent Hurricane Harvey had affected the monthly numbers, with the storm both hurting and helping sales…

Saddam Was The Last Person To Try This And He Wasn't Even In The Same Hemisphere

Shunning dollar, Venezuela lists oil prices in Chinese yuan

Venezuela on Friday began listing the price of its oil in the Chinese yuan, following President Nicolas Maduro's announcement last week that he would rid the economy of the "US imperialist system." The move was seen as a bid to weather US-imposed sanctions on the embattled country. The country's petroleum ministry listed the week's closing price…

Well Isn't This Interesting? Energy ETF XLE On A Sell With Possible Inverse Head And Shoulders Pattern

I normally prefer wedges when it comes to making my predictions but this was too good to pass up. Energy ETF XLE has been on a real tear lately due mostly to hurricanes and granted there has been some damage to the Texas infrastructure it isn't the mess some people were generally expecting. XLE is right now come up to a critical resistance level, $66.00, with two prior touches of what appears to be a "left shoulder." The RSI(5) also appears to be putting in a short term sell signal so I expect this to be confirmed with a change in the EMA's. What's also interesting is that XLE is starting to move above the MA(144), another bullish move. Near term XLE is looking "short" but the medium term prospects (which require a little more clarity) may be bullish!

Colonialism v2.0: Possibly Sowing The Seeds Of World War Three

China provides $10 billion credit line to Iran

A Chinese state-owned investment firm has provided a $10 billion credit line for Iranian banks, Iran's central bank president said Saturday. The contract was signed in Beijing between China's CITIC investment group and a delegation of Iranian banks led by central bank president Valiollah Seif. The Iran Daily said the funds would finance water, energy and…

All Electric Push Continues

Rickshaws to jump start India's all-electric drive

India will roll out nearly 100,000 battery-powered buses and autorickshaws onto its sulphurous city streets in the coming weeks, setting it on the bumpy road to making new vehicle sales all-electric by 2030. India, one of the world's most polluted nations, has one of the most ambitious plans to kick its fossil fuel addiction. Analysts say…

Sunday, September 17, 2017

"Wow" Emoji

Trump Won't Withdraw from Paris Climate Deal

The Trump administration announced Saturday the U.S will not pull out of the Paris agreement and offered to re-engage in the international deal to fight climate change, according to the European Union’s top energy official. President Donald Trump’s decision in June to withdraw to negotiate from the Paris deal or craft a new agreement came during…

Yeah, This Is Still An Important Part Of The World

GAZA STRIP - Hamas ready for reconciliation deal with Palestinian Authority leader Abbas

The Hamas militant group said Sunday it has accepted key conditions demanded by its rival, President Mahmoud Abbas, including nationwide elections in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, to clear the way for a reconciliation deal after a 10-year rift. The rift has left the Palestinians divided between two governments. In a statement issued overnight, Hamas…

Saturday, September 16, 2017

Japan Is Looking A Little Burnt Out (EWJ)

Japan ETF EWJ has usually been a bit of a stalwart and I've never had to comment much on it but recently I drew in an ascending wedge pattern which has held really nicely up till now. I can't say I'm a particularly huge fan of the long-term prospects for the Japanese economy, the first developed nation to begin selling more adult diapers than children's, but it has always being a reliable gainer and it does have a lot of good things going for it. Right now the divergence between the MA(144) and various EMA's is quite divergent and with a pattern developing like this a retracement to MA(144) seems quite strong.

Building Enthusiasm For Electric Cars

Automakers put new-energy cars in fast lane at Frankfurt

A vehicle equipped with the Gazele 3 battery management system was among exhibits at the Frankfurt Motor Show connected to new energy technology. [Photo/China Daily] The enthusiasm of automakers for new-energy vehicles was strong at this year's Frankfurt Motor Show, which is also known as 2017 IAA, as restrictions on gasoline vehicles becoming more prevalent and…

Friday, September 15, 2017

Trade War Threats Continue

Trump Blocks Chinese Takeover of US Computer Chip Company

President Donald Trump has blocked the acquisition of a U.S. computer chip manufacturer by a Chinese company, calling it a threat to national security. The Chinese-owned Canyon Bridge Fund has sought to take over Oregon-based Lattice Semiconductor Corp. The U.S. Treasury Department, acting under Trump’s orders, said Wednesday it is prohibiting the deal. It says the…

Computer As A Phone, Justifying The Cost

New iPhone may prove too costly

Apple Inc CEO Tim Cook introduces the iPhone X at its release in Cupertino, California. [Qi Heng/for China Daily] Industry experts warn price tag may put it beyond reach of most Chinese users Apple Inc unveiled its most advanced iPhone on Wednesday, whose design is impressive enough to spark enthusiasm but its high price tag may…

Bearish Implications If Tax Plan Stalls With Competing Ideas

Cruz wants a GOP-authored tax plan, but Trump has other ideas

WASHINGTON — Sen. Ted Cruz on Wednesday unveiled his own plan to overhaul the nation's tax code with only GOP votes — while the White House courted Democrats and House Republicans prepared to write their own plan. Cruz, R-Texas, an influential voice among hardcore conservatives, pitched his appeal largely to staunch supporters who have long fought…

Strategic Cooperation Between India And Japan, Possible Part Of Chinese Containment Strategy

India to invest $17bn on Japanese bullet trains

India will invest $17bn to build its first high-speed train system, having reached a deal with Japan to help finance the project. The network, which will run 508km between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, was announced on Thursday by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. "This is the new India, and the flight of its dreams is endless," he said.…

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Fossil Fuel Ban Is Catching On

China mulls timetable to ban fossil fuel vehicles

Cars refuel at a Sinopec gas station in Qingdao, Shandong province. PROVIDED TO CHINA DAILY BEIJING - With the war on pollution in full swing, China has signalled its intention to join countries such as Britain and France with plans to ban the manufacturing and sales of cars running on traditional fuel. Attending an automobile forum…

Ugandan And Tanzanian Cooperation Make Pipeline A Reality

MPs Ratify Pipeline Deal

Members of Parliament (MPs) yesterday ratified the Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) for execution of the mega Hoima-Tanga oil pipeline project. The ratification sets a new stage towards the implementation of the 1,445 kilometre East African Crude Oil Pipeline Project (EACOP). The legislators defied their political divide and joined hands to welcome the project on which they expressed…

Wow, Someone With Same Outlook On Oil And It's The Vice-President Of Nigeria

Exploit Your Oil While Its Value Lasts, Osinbajo Tells Niger Delta Leaders

Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, on Tuesday, asked the people and investors in the Niger Delta region to make effective use of the proceeds from oil, saying the product may soon become unprofitable. Mr. Osinbajo spoke at the 2nd National Council Meeting on the Niger Delta, in Akure. Although he noted that Nigeria currently relied on oil…

More Hits For Cryptocurrencies

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon: Bitcoin Is 'Fraud'

JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon predicts government officials will shut down cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin after someone “gets killed,” adding that he would fire any “stupid” employee if they’re found to be trading bitcoin. JPMorgan’s Chief Executive Officer, who previously served on the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank in New York,…

Reliable, Cleaner, Safer Alternatives....Who Cares About Coal Anyway

New Report: Clean Tech Boosts Electric Grid As Coal Use Declines

A new report by M.J. Bradley & Associates shows that coal-fired power plants are retiring primarily due to low natural gas prices and flattened demand, and that cleaner energy keeps our electric grid reliable. The report estimates that coal plant closures caused less than 20 percent of the overall decline in coal generation over the past…

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Guest Post: Clive Maund And Gold Update

Gold continues to build towards its breakout from a massive 4-year long base pattern. This is likely to occur when the dollar breaks down from its topping pattern, and is expected to lead to a bullmarket that will dwarf the last one from 2001 through 2011, and may be given a tailwind when the cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme implodes. In some quarters gold is being described as having broken out already, as are gold stocks, but they haven’t yet, as we will see, and we will also look at evidence that points to the probability of a short to medium-term dollar bounce and a pullback in the Precious Metals sector before the big breakout occurs.

On gold’s 10-year chart we can see its fine giant 4-year long Head-and-Shoulders bottom approaching completion, with the price rising up in recent weeks to the broad band of quite strong resistance at the top of the pattern, partly due to tensions over N Korea. These are expected to ease, which will make a short-term correction back more likely. Before leaving this chart note the volume build on the rally out of the Right Shoulder low of the pattern, and the strength of the volume indicators shown, especially the Accum-Distrib line, which rather amazingly is already at new highs. This certainly bodes well for the longer-term outlook.

Over the near-term, however, various factors indicate that the probability of a reaction back is high. On the 6-month chart we can see that last week the price rose up to the top of its uptrend channel where a prominent “spinning top” candlestick formed on Friday, with the RSI indicator critically overbought, making it likely that gold will react back at least to the lower boundary of this channel. The overbought MACD and sizeable gap with the moving averages also increase the risk of a reaction.

Like gold itself, gold stocks are preparing to break out of a giant 4-year long Head-and-Shoulders bottom. They are still quite a way from having broken out, as we can see on the 10-year chart for GDX shown below, and vulnerable to a near-term reaction on a dollar rebound, that should not see them lose much ground. The big volume on the rally during the 1st half of last year showed that the bottom was in and that a major new bullmarket is in prospect. The formation of the Right Shoulder of this H&S bottom served to correct this strong advance.

A big reason for gold to react back again soon would a rebound by the dollar, which is made more likely by the fact that a lot of commentators are reading it its “last rites” - it’s not that they are wrong, it’s just that there are a lot of people of one side of the boat now, so they may prove to be wrong short-term but right longer-term.

We will now look at some of the big reasons that the dollar could rally soon. On the 8-year chart for the dollar index we can immediately see one of them – the dollar has now arrived at the lower boundary of a large Broadening Top pattern in an oversold state, and while it is believed to be destined to break down from this pattern in due course, it looks likely that it will bounce of its lower boundary over the short to medium-term to correct the oversold condition before going on to break down later.

Another important factor suggesting that the dollar is likely to rally short-term is the latest dollar Hedgers chart, which is now quite strongly bullish. On this chart we see that large Commercial Hedgers, who are almost always right, have cashed in nearly all of their net short positions for a nice fat profit, so that they are now at a very low level, and they would be unlikely to do this if the dollar was set to drop much further. On this chart we also have the benefit of seeing what happened to the dollar soon after they did this on earlier occasions. As we can see it usually rose.

Those who think that the dollar will plunge because Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela has announced that his beleaguered country will stop selling in oil in dollars are likely to be disappointed. President Maduro would be well advised to look up what happened to Saddam Hussein after he proposed doing the same, and we must assume that either he doesn’t know his history, or is tired of being President of a failed State and is contriving a way to be forcibly removed from office. We have seen how copper, known as Dr Copper because it tends to lead the economy and lead the metals, has been in the vanguard of the recent metals rally. Thus it is interesting to observe on its 6-month chart below how it suddenly dropped hard on Friday having become overbought, which is thought to presage a dollar rebound and a near-term drop by other metals, like gold and silver.

Conclusion: the long-term outlook for gold couldn’t be better with it looking destined to break out from a giant 4-year long base pattern to enter a bullmarket that promises to dwarf the last one, as the dollar collapses and China (and possibly Russia and other countries) backs its currency with gold, and the cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme implodes, with the liberated funds (or what’s left of them) flowing into gold and silver. Cryptos got a shock late last week when China reportedly revealed that it was set to close local exchanges. From China’s standpoint cryptos are a needless risk to their citizen’s capital, and represent potential competition for their future gold-backed Yuan, albeit not for any intelligent person, and are a nuisance that they can deal with simply by banning them, which as a Command Economy that can ignore criticism, they have the power to do. Near-term gold is looking set to react back as the dollar bounces off support with tensions over N Korea easing as the US has no choice but to accept that N Korea has graduated to the nuclear club, even if it cannot be described as one of its august members.

Monday, September 11, 2017

And It Hasn't Even Reach Tampa Yet

Hurricane Irma's damage bill $10-bn so far: assessment

Hurricane Irma has caused more than $10 billion (8.3 billion euros) in damage across the Caribbean so far, making it the costliest storm ever to hit the region's island nations and territories, disaster risk experts said Friday. Compiled by the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) in Germany, the estimate covers a dozen…

And Bullish For Gold

Dollar slides as Irma seen as threat to Fed rate hikes

The dollar continued its slide against the euro and other major currencies Friday, while oil prices fell sharply as the US faced off against another major hurricane. The greenback tumbled to its lowest value against the euro since the start of 2015 as Florida's highways were jammed with evacuees fleeing as Hurricane Irma roared toward the…

Closer Infrastructure Ties Between Japan and India. Whither China?

Modi, Abe to kick-start India's first bullet train project

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe will break ground on India's first bullet train project on Thursday in western Gujarat state, as the country seeks faster travel for millions. Modi has pledged to invest billions of dollars to modernise India's creaking railway system, with the bullet train one of his key…

Sunday, September 10, 2017

I Think I Talk About This Yesterday

Hurricane Irma Threatens Millions of Homes, Worries Insurers

Real estate experts say Hurricane Irma's winds threaten 8.5 million homes and businesses in Florida. A report from data analysis firm CoreLogic says storm surges — floodwaters driven by high winds and low pressure — may also endanger 3.5 million commercial and residential properties. Standard & Poor's analysts say they are still adding up the costs…

China Continues To Make Strides Towards To Energy Self-Sufficiency

China spends big to ensure clean winter heating

A man does exercise by a river in Jilin, Northeast China's Jilin province. [Photo/VCG] BEIJING -- Chinese central and local governments are committed to huge spending in the coming three years to ensure clean winter heating in 12 cities in northern China. Those cities, including Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan and Tianjin, are in a pilot program for winter…

Saturday, September 09, 2017

With Financials (XLF) The Hits Keep Coming And I Expect That To Continue

Hurricane Harvey was already a disaster with estimates that reconstruction will cost an estimated 80 and 175 billion dollars. While a second hurricane developed in the Gulf Of Mexico (Katia in case people have forgotten) a monster lurked out in the Atlantic Ocean, Irma, with the fastest speeds ever recorded for an Atlantic storm. Ocean temperatures have risen about one degree Celsius in the last century meaning larger "once in a lifetime hurricanes" are now forming more regularly. We've had two in the last ten years with only one previous one on the same scale as Irma in the previous century. Couple this with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and a possibility that Gary Cohn is falling out of favour at the White House and financial stocks don't look so appealing. I recall posting the upward channel a while back warning that if it were broken we could see some retracement. Now that that's broken the next barrier we are reaching are the EMA's and the MA(144). I fully expect a bounce of those EMA's on the MA(144) but the long term picture for Financial stocks doesn't look promising given the above mentioned challenges. The bounce may come as XLF touches a resistance line identified at $23.50 but resistance below it is at $22.75. If this were to happen I'd imagine we'd have a rounding top pattern which may forecast a longer more protracted decline as the costs are fully evaluated and questions surrounding Gary's role in the White House is clarified.

Thursday, September 07, 2017


Finally, Nigeria Exits Recession, Reports 0.55 Percent GDP Growth in Q2

After contracting for five consecutive quarters, the Nigerian economy has finally exited the recession, as data on the country's gross domestic product growth rate to be released at 10 a.m. today by the National Bureau of Statistics has shown that the economy grew at 0.55 per cent in the second quarter of 2017. The preliminary Q2…

Ten Years Ago We Would Have Laughed At This, Now Dutch Capital Firms Are Paying To Have It Done

Free Solar Panels to Be Installed on 800K Low-income UK Households

Over 800,000 low-income houses in England and Wales are to have free solar panels installed on their rooves over the course of the next five years. The $208 million (£160 million) initiative, which is being financed by the Dutch firm Maas Capital, is expected to save the residents an average of $312 (£240) on their energy…

Electric Car Market Continues To Heat Up

Nissan reveals a new Leaf, putting pressure on electric car rivals

The battle for control of the small but increasingly competitive electric vehicle market got a little hotter Tuesday night, as Japanese car company Nissan unveiled a new Leaf with a stronger battery and longer range — at a price well below rival electric cars. At a glitzy ceremony in Tokyo, broadcast live on the internet, Nissan…

I Would Have Expected This To Be More Bullish For Oil But It Isn't

Irma rips across islands on course toward Florida

MIAMI — One of the most powerful hurricanes on record continued steaming toward South Florida early Wednesday, with its course after three days still shifting. In their early morning discussion, National Hurricane Center forecasters said the latest model runs have moved Irma's path slightly to the east, taking the fierce Cat 5 storm over Florida's east…

Monday, September 04, 2017

Well This Has Escaped My Radar, But You Should Begin To Take Notice Of Precious Metals

Silver Market Update

originally published Sunday, September 03, 2017

The long base pattern in silver continues with positive price / volume action of recent weeks suggesting that it is approaching completion. On its 10-year chart we can see the giant Head-and-Shoulders bottom pattern that has formed in silver, which parallels the one in gold, but is downsloping because silver tends to underperform gold at the end of bearmarkets and early in bullmarkets. The volume buildup of recent months is bullish, especially as it has driven volume indicators sharply higher, with the On-balance Volume line having rather incredibly made new highs this year, which is viewed as a very bullish omen.
On its year-to-date chart we can see that silver has certainly taken a turn for the better in recent weeks, having first broken out of the intermediate downtrend shown, and then, having consolidated the breakout for a couple of weeks, forged ahead over the past week, all on strong upside volume. If silver can advance further or at least hold in this area for a couple of weeks, we will soon see a bullish cross of the moving averages.

The one “fly in the ointment” is the dollar, which, as described in the parallel Gold Market update, is oversold and at support, with the Commercials having closed out their shorts, and is therefore set up to bounce, although any such bounce is thought unlikely to get very far, especially given the increasingly bullish look of the gold and silver charts. On such a dollar bounce silver is not expected to drop back very far, and any such near-term weakness will be viewed as presenting further opportunities to build long positions across the sector, which may be the last chance before the sector breaks out upside.

A source of good cheer for silverbugs is the copper chart. Copper tends to lead the metals and its recent breakout from a Head-and-Shoulders bottom on strong volume certainly augurs well for gold and especially silver, which is also an industrial metal. We can see the base pattern and breakout on its 10-year chart. Of particular note is the high volume on the advance from the lows, which has driven volume indicators strongly higher so that they are already at new highs. This is very bullish and some of copper’s good fortune can be expected to rub off on gold and especially silver. Apparently copper’s strong rise is due in large part to Chinese stockpiling, and given that China has already been stockpiling gold for years – physical, not paper rubbish like Comex contracts and ETFs, they may very well decide to do likewise with silver, which has the dual virtue and being both a Precious Metal and a vital industrial metal. Just watch what happens to the silver price if they do.

Sunday, September 03, 2017

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