Saturday, September 09, 2017

With Financials (XLF) The Hits Keep Coming And I Expect That To Continue

Hurricane Harvey was already a disaster with estimates that reconstruction will cost an estimated 80 and 175 billion dollars. While a second hurricane developed in the Gulf Of Mexico (Katia in case people have forgotten) a monster lurked out in the Atlantic Ocean, Irma, with the fastest speeds ever recorded for an Atlantic storm. Ocean temperatures have risen about one degree Celsius in the last century meaning larger "once in a lifetime hurricanes" are now forming more regularly. We've had two in the last ten years with only one previous one on the same scale as Irma in the previous century. Couple this with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and a possibility that Gary Cohn is falling out of favour at the White House and financial stocks don't look so appealing. I recall posting the upward channel a while back warning that if it were broken we could see some retracement. Now that that's broken the next barrier we are reaching are the EMA's and the MA(144). I fully expect a bounce of those EMA's on the MA(144) but the long term picture for Financial stocks doesn't look promising given the above mentioned challenges. The bounce may come as XLF touches a resistance line identified at $23.50 but resistance below it is at $22.75. If this were to happen I'd imagine we'd have a rounding top pattern which may forecast a longer more protracted decline as the costs are fully evaluated and questions surrounding Gary's role in the White House is clarified.