Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Whoops! Oil Services (OIH) Breaks Support

I'm exhausted and the work keeps piling up but I feel this is important to write a quick article about. Oil Services ETF OIH broke a keep support level today after having been caught in a declining triangle pattern (bearish outcome, often). My long term MACD indicators are about to cross over bearishly and a medium term indicator put in a sell signal back on December 19th, so today was what I was waiting for. It's outside the Bollinger Bands so either we abort and move back up tomorrow or it slides hard. Without the EMA's crossing over it's still technically a bullish play, but things look dicey here and today's engulfing pattern has played a large part. I've drawn in some lower support levels at $32.25 and $30.25 which I think tells you where this is headed tomorrow.

Monday, January 30, 2017

Trump's Mexico Wall Has Reverberations Elsewhere In The World

European Carmakers Weigh Options Amid Mexico Tax Threats

European automakers that count on their plants in Mexico to supply the U.S. market are weighing their options in the face of threats from President Donald Trump to impose stiff penalties in his bid to return manufacturing jobs to the United States. Trump has warned the U.S. could slap massive border taxes on car companies that…

Mastercard's Smart Play In Small African Markets

Digital Technology Aiming to Empower Small-farm Owners in East Africa

Mastercard has launched a new digital marketplace for East African farmers to sell their crops and receive payment via their mobile telephones. "2Kuze" (pronounced "tuh-KOO-zay") works with existing mobile money systems like mPesa to facilitate transactions between farmers, agents and banks, the financial-services corporation said. The World Bank's Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP) estimates…

Sunday, January 29, 2017

Pork Barrel Spending At It's Finest

Donald Trump's border wall hits budget woes

The bean counters are registering their own disapproval of President Trump's border wall, saying the cost alone makes it a bad idea. Taxpayers for Common Sense called it a "Wall of Waste," and said it won't solve much of the illegal immigration problem. "Putting this expensive wall on the U.S. credit card not only doesn't make…

Signs Of A Slowdown Abound, Part II

Soybean slowdown: weaker exports hit US economic growth

They are calling it the soybean slowdown. The first official estimate of US economic growth in the final three months of last year showed it was much weaker than the previous quarter. One reason – there was a big jump in exports of US soybeans in the third quarter due to higher demand following a poor…

Sign Of A Slowdown Abound, Part I

China's property market to see slower sales growth in 2017: Moody's

BEIJING-- Moody's Investors Service expects China's property market to show a slower pace of sales growth in 2017 following tightened regulations to ease an overheated market. "We expect nationwide contracted sales in 2017 will be largely flat or will see a slight decline from 2016, after buoyant growth that year," Chris Wong, a Moody's analyst, said…

Friday, January 27, 2017

The "Double-Think" Now Planely Apparent For All To See After Withdrawing From TPP

Debunking the Myth TPP's Demise is China's Gain

An economist argued Tuesday that America's trade deal actually makes it easier to ship jobs overseas and gives a boost to China. Ann Lee, a New York University adjunct professor and author of "What the U.S. Can Learn from China," told CNN that the 12-nation trade pact negotiated by former President Barack Obama would have raised…

Chinese Links To Africa Continue To Grow

New African Railways Ride on Chinese Loans

Earlier this month, the first train rumbled down the tracks of a $3.4 billion electric railway connecting landlocked Ethiopia with Djibouti and its access to the Red Sea. The 750-kilometer (466 miles) line, expected to carry up to five million tons of goods per year, promises to have a massive impact on the economies of both…

Meaningless? How About Dangerous, Too

Why Wall Street's Dow 20,000 is totally meaningless

By Jay L. Zagorsky, Economist and Research Scientist, The Ohio State University. The Dow Jones Industrial Average just broke 20,000 for the first time. Traders and investors cheered this historic high of the world’s most famous stock market index, which is composed of 30 of the biggest and best-performing American companies and is frequently used as…

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Energy (XLE) Poised For A Move?

Energy ETF XLE is looking very interesting. A "short/sell" was put in around the middle of December and I think now is the time to repeal it. Moving averages on the daily charts are bullishly aligning and currently holding just below resistance at around $75.40. A break above this overhead resistance tomorrow or in the first half of the new week would be very bullish.
Even the 30 minute chart (which I had been stupidly ignoring) is showing signs of life at the moment. We can see that XLE has already broken above the channel resistance line with EMA's bullishly aligned and now holding right at the MA(233). There might be a pullback to the EMA(89) which can be used as a 'stop,' but the long-and-short of it at the moment is XLE isn't looking like a speculative play here.

Why Even War, Isn't There A Better Alternative Already?

The "War on Coal" is Purely Economic

This article originally appeared on The Conversation in November 2016. In 2015, the Obama administration finalized the EPA Clean Power Plan (CPP), which aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity sector in 2030 by 32 percent compared with 2005 levels. The CPP was a major component of the U.S. pledge to reduce greenhouse gas…

Environmentalism Incentivized

Green bond rise seen as smog thickens

Underwriter says China may OK more debt issues for environmental projects China may accelerate approvals of green bonds this year as the nation battles a toxic wave of smog, according to Guotai Junan Securities, the nation's top underwriter of the notes. Dirty air has led to more than 60 Chinese cities issuing health alerts in recent…

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

4% Does Seem A Little Outlandish

Debt spike, sluggish growth predicted by Congressional Budget Office

The federal government will run another half-trillion-dollar deficit this year - and that's the good news. A still-sluggish economy and rising interest rates mean deficits will grow over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office said in a new report Tuesday, adding another $10 trillion to the already exorbitant public debt. Unless something changes, within three…

China Takes America's Place (Until It's No Longer Advantageous)

China’s Silk Road Ambitions Reach London as Beijing Champions Global Free Trade

The first-ever direct China-to-Britain freight train pulled into London last week - the latest milestone in China’s ambitions to redevelop the old "Silk Road" trade routes from Asia to Europe. The Chinese government has spoken out strongly in favor of free trade and globalization in the days following the inauguration of Donald Trump as U.S. president.…

The Good News For Canada Keeps Coming

Trump 'to clear' Keystone XL, Dakota Access pipelines

US President Donald Trump is due to sign two executive actions to advance the building of the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines, according to US media. The signing was expected on Tuesday, Reuters news agency reported, citing Bloomberg media. The steps vividly illustrate Trump's plan to give the oil industry more freedom to expand infrastructure…

Good News Shale Producers And Canada

Basing Pattern on Energy Explorers

By -

Crude oil has been stuck in a relatively tight range for many weeks, but the oil and gas explorers fund, shown below, is shaping up in a powerful bullish base. I am stating this in spite of having a few energy shorts, because unless 40.02 is broken to the downside, this is a bullish setup.
0124-xop

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Biotechnolgoy ($BTK) May Go For A Small Run, But Watch Out

Just a quick note here regarding the Biotechnology Index $BTK which appears to be in a bullish declining wedge, however confined to a larger downtrend. I am fairly confident we will see a breakout but the larger downtrend may hold. Put a long/buy in at 3140 but sell/short if it fails to break 3170.

I Think We Have Seen The Light, And It's Very Profitable

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

Sign Of A Possible Global Downturn?

Shipbuilders see waning orders, profits

BEIJING - Affected by waning global market demand and excessive industry capacity, China's shipbuilders witnessed declining new orders and profits in 2016. The accomplished shipbuilding output in 2016 stood at 35.3 million deadweight metric tons (DWTs), representing a decline of 15.6 percent from 2015, said China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry. Orders for new ships…

Yeah, About That....

Bilateral investments bring US and China closer

NEW YORK - With $45.6 billion worth of completed acquisitions and greenfield investments, the United States has become the largest recipient of booming Chinese outbound Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2016. The number is triple the amount for 2015 and a tenfold increase of annual investment from five years ago, according to Rhodium Group. At a…

China's Financial Net Continues To Spread

Bank of China officially opens branch in Serbia

Bank of China opened its branch in Serbia on Saturday, becoming the first Chinese bank starting operation in the country. The official opening ceremony took place at Palace of Serbia, with presence of Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic,…

Monday, January 23, 2017

Companies Care About The Environment? Get Out!

Conservation Investing by Companies Shows Dramatic Growth

Over the last few years, socially and environmentally conscious impact investing by the corporate sector has witnessed encouraging growth. One of the key components of this field is “conservation investing,” which has assumed increasing importance in view of the global commitment to achieve the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Tracking the corporate investments made by businesses…

How Will Everyone React To Protectionism Defines 2017

What Trump's Inauguration Means For Markets

Donald Trump is due to be sworn in Friday afternoon as the 45th President of the United States, after one of the best transition period stock market performances in modern history. Analysts have questioned, however, whether this headstart was a telling sign for how the economy will fare in years to come. Trump's predecessor, President Barack…

Well, We Haven't Had Any Accidental Nuclear Launches So Far

Cutting Trade Ties to China Would be Catastrophic

Quora Questions are part of a partnership between Newsweek and Quora, through which we'll be posting relevant and interesting answers from Quora contributors throughout the week. Read more about the partnership here. Answer from Taylor Griffin, Former U.S. Treasury and White House staff: If the U.S. suddenly stopped trading with China, the consequences would be devastating…

A Continuing Source Of Anxiety For the Rest Of the Investment World

China's property loans continue to grow

BEIJING - Loans to the real estate sector in China continued to grow by the end of 2016, data from the central bank showed Friday. By the end of December 2016, financial institutions in China had lent 26.68 trillion yuan ($3.9 trillion) to the property sector, up 27 percent year-on-year, according to a report from the…

Sunday, January 22, 2017

Technology And Automaker Agreements Abound

Panasonic Looks To Expand Tesla Partnership

Electronics manufacturer Panasonic wants to expand its relationship with Tesla to include hardware like external sensors, according to a report from Reuters. In an interview, Panasonic CEO Kazuhiro Tsuga said the company was interested in furthering its partnership with the automotive company. "We are deeply interested in Tesla's self-driving system," Tsuga told Reuters. "We are hoping…

Gold (GLD) Is Looking Precariously Positioned

Gold ETF GLD has had a fantastic run of late when I made a call late in December to go long/buy. Since then we've had a steady upward channel with little volatility, but that broke down on the 19th and since then it has been bouncing around in a condensing triangle. Looking at the RSI(14) on the 30 minute chart you'll notice a series of lower highs. Unless this breaks upwards I fear GLD will be heading downwards.
It's easy to be pessimistic about GLD. I had a couple of good sell signals back in September which materialized into a major correction followed by a fall below the MA(144) in October and a rejection in late in November. Glancing at the daily charts we are firmly below the MA(144) so any hint of a move downwards needs to be studied carefully. There is an overhead resistance line at around $118.00 which I've noticed, too. If this condensing triangle we are seeing on the 30 minute chart breaks upwards, the next stop should be this overhead resistance area. The problem is that with where things stand now on the daily chart is that everything appears over-bought. If you have profits, it might be prudent to take them.

First It Was Our Premier League Players They Were Poaching, Now Our Scientists

Li: More foreign talent welcome

Premier Li Keqiang meets with Scottish-American chemist Sir James Fraser Stoddart, winner of the 2016 Nobel Prize in chemistry, in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Friday. WU ZHIYI/CHINA DAILY More foreign talent is welcome to China for innovation work and business, and the government will step up support in such areas as…

Friday, January 20, 2017

Pretty Much Sums Up My Feelings


I Smell Fear

US Business Lobby: Protectionism Fueling Pessimism About Business in China

China may be one of the world’s biggest markets, a country that is not lacking in potential, but it also is an increasingly difficult place to do business. At least that’s what the results of a new survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China reveals. In its latest annual overview, the U.S. business lobby…

Energy Still Not Supported At These Prices In U.S.

Embrace And Harness The U.S. Energy Renaissance

As the Trump administration comes into office and the new Congress begins work, a sea-change is needed in the way Washington approaches American oil and natural gas abundance. It’s critically important for consumers, the U.S. economy and our country’s security. We need policies that embrace and harness America’s energy renaissance instead of trying to restrain it.…

China To Take Lead On Reinterpreting Globalization

Xi and his better version of globalization

BEIJING - In recent years, globalization seems to have lost its charm and steam, and most depressively, the direction to go forward. To gather even tighter or to fall apart, the world community is confronting a critical choice that matters so much for so many. At the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in the Swiss ski…

Thursday, January 19, 2017

The Bank Exodus From England Begins

HSBC to move 1,000 staff from London to Paris after Brexit

The top boss of HSBC has said it is planning to move some staff from London to Paris following Britain’s exit from the European Union. Chief Executive Stuart Gulliver revealed that in interviews at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He said that Europe’s biggest bank would likely look to shift around 1,000 workers who…

Fear Of An Annex By Russia

Lithuanian Politicians Push for Defense Spending Hike

The National Security and Defense Committee in the Lithuanian parliament is pushing to increase the country’s defense spending to over 2.5 percent of GDP, breaking well into the NATO threshold. Although NATO members have agreed to invest at least two percent of their gross domestic product on defence spending, only four countries besides the U.S. do…

A Missed Opportunity?

In Trade with Africa, US Is Playing Catch-up

The U.S. may be a global superpower, but when it comes to trade and investment in Africa, it lags far behind. China, with $200 billion in trade with the continent, more than doubles that of the U.S. That means that while Africans paid attention to the U.S. presidential election, they were much more concerned by a…

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Utilities (XLU) Looking Strong, Or People Looking For A Haven?

I've got a big day tomorrow so I just wanted to post a quick update on Utilities ETF XLU. I don't know whether this is a sign that people are heading for a "safe haven" investment or not, but today XLU powered into bullish territory with a move above MA(144). I've drawn in a strong looking upward channel with a hint of an ascending bearish wedge possibly beginning. Needless to say, this seems to be something that will rise to around $50.40 we decide what it does next.

Effects Of Dollar's Surge Still Evident

Euro Ready to Reverse?

By -

The Euro has been strengthening ever since 2017 began, but it seems to me, based on the ETF shown below, that we’re up against a potential reversal point.
0117-fxe
On a semi-related point, as I’ve mentioned, I didn’t sell my DUST long position. I still believe miners will be working their way lower. In spite of this morning’s big surge in gold, the pattern is still reasonably intact.
0117-gdxj

Wait, Hitting Bottom?!

Chinese economy likely to hit bottom in 2017: Economist

BEIJING - The Chinese economy is likely to hit bottom in 2017 as several factors will combine to support the bottoming process, a Chinese economist said Saturday. If investment, supply-side structural reforms and the fostering of new growth momentum achieve desired results, there is a high probability that the economy may bottom this year, said Wang…

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

China Leading?! D'uh

China seen leading on global issues at Davos

China is expected to champion global free trade, sustainable growth and the international rule of law at this year's World Economic Forum in Davos, says Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, former United Nations Deputy Secretary-General. Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, former United Nations Deputy Secretary-General. [Photo provided to chinadaily.com.cn] He was speaking shortly before the announcement that President Xi Jinping…

Globalization Versus Populism: The Fight Of The Century

Davos elite face cold reality of economic task

More than 2,500 political and business leaders are swarming into the small Alpine town of Davos, Switzerland - and it isn't for the skiing. They're looking for solutions. They will discuss how to push globalization at a time when it's challenged by rising populist and protectionist forces, which have been buoyed by the United States presidential…

Professionalizing Vice

The Businesses Taking Marijuana Products Mainstream

This article originally appeared on the International Business Times. Imagine a group of young professionals enjoying a dinner party. It’s time for dessert, and everyone moves from the dinner table to the living room. A digestif is served alongside a handful of luxury chocolates that have a slightly sweet taste and a low-dose of THC that…

Is This Because They Want To Do Something About It Or Because They Were Responsible For Creating It?

Davos elite bets on climate change

Men dressed as Chlaeuse, traditional figures that scare away evil spirits, carry round bells and cowbells as they walk on a snow-covered road in Urnaesch, Switzerland, on Friday. Arnd Wiegmann / Reuters For business leaders, it's a question about billions of dollars - maybe even trillions - in potential profits and losses Donald Trump has often…

Monday, January 16, 2017

Possible Breakout In Japan ETF (EWJ)

I think we may have had a breakout in Japan ETF EWJ today. The equity has been moving sideways for a while and seemed to be stuck in an ascending triangle (sort of). We haven't had confirmation yet with a second close above the line so tomorrow will be a critical day for us, but the ascending triangle pattern is a little weak and one I am not particularly hot about. What is important is that the American dollar is still weakening, a buy signal was put in seven sessions ago, and my long-term momentum indicator just crossed over bullishly. The one cautionary thing I have to say is that moving averages are getting pretty spread out, so some kind of mean-reversion will need to take place.

When Solar Is Officially Cheaper Than Coal, Not Sure This Is A Bright Idea

Wyoming is basically trying to outlaw clean energy

Solar and wind would be penalized under proposed law Wikimedia Wind turbines It’s often said that in New Zealand, there are more sheep than people. In Wyoming, there’s way more energy than people. The state, the least populous in the U.S., ranks second in overall energy production; first in coal production; fourth in natural gas; and…

Sunday, January 15, 2017

Energy Import And Export To Equalize By 2025

U.S. Energy Outlook: Growing Output, Growing Security

Sometime in the mid-2020s, U.S. energy officials project, two key lines measuring energy imports and exports will cross, and the United States will have achieved something quite special – the advent of an era in which America is a net energy exporter. That’s one of the big projections contained in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s newly…

Saturday, January 14, 2017

Pot Continues To Be The Rising Star Of The American Economy

How The Marijuana Industry Is Taking Weed Mainstream In 2017

Imagine a group of young professionals enjoying a dinner party. It’s time for dessert and everyone moves from the dinner table to the living room. A digestif is served alongside a handful of luxury chocolates that have a slightly sweet taste and a low-dose of THC that kicks in within 15 minutes, just as the coffee…

China Continues Spread Around Pacific Rim

China's HNA Group purchases first foothold in New Zealand

WELLINGTON - One of the world's biggest asset finance and leasing companies, China-based HNA Group, has purchased its first foothold in New Zealand. ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd, one of New Zealand's biggest commercial banks, said Wednesday that HNA had agreed to buy its asset finance business, UDC Finance, for NZ$660 million($461.47 million). ANZ New Zealand…

America's Least Wanted

Which Are America’s Most Hated Companies?

Financial news website 24/7 Wall St., which assesses customer service for U.S. citizens, compiled a list of the 12 most hated companies by customers, employees, and the general public. According to its findings, telecommunications conglomerate Comcast topped the list, followed by Bank of America, Mylan, McDonald's, Wells Fargo, Facebook, Sprint, DISH Network, Sears, Sprint, Walmart and…

Friday, January 13, 2017

I'm Suprised It Took Them This Long To Notice!

Traders, investors find DC's political idiocy hard to ignore

WASHINGTON, January 12, 2017 – Another short column today, as it's difficult in the current environment to come up with new investment ideas when the market itself seems to lack all conviction. The main issue that's causing stocks to back and fill this month is politics. Between Donald Trump's renewed attack on U.S. pharmaceutical companies earlier…

I Doubt That Anyone Anywhere Is Going To Buy This Or Even Cares

Trade with China helps 2.6m US jobs

Trade with China supports some 2.6 million jobs in the United States, including jobs that Chinese firm have created directly in the US, according to a report released on Tuesday by the US-China Business Council.…

The Demise Of Bitcoin By The Country Most Interested In Limiting A Free Currency

Bitcoin Prices Fall Following Possible Chinese Regulation

Bitcoin prices dropped more than 10 percent Wednesday following news that China plans to conduct spot investigations on the digital currency, according to a report from Reuters. The investigations of exchanges including OKCoin and Huobi are intended to check for violations like money laundering and market manipulation. No active violations have yet been reported, but the…

Thursday, January 12, 2017

Uncertainty Of Nigerian Oil Market Likely To Remain

Nigeria to Begin Tracking of Oil Production, Sales Destination

Nigeria will from this year begin to track the volume of its crude oil production from fields of production and loading bays, to sales destinations in a renewed effort to cut down on prevalent oil theft and loss of revenue, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, has said. Speaking in a podcast…

Blockchain Continues To Spread

PSBC and IBM build up blockchain banking system

The technology reduces processing steps by as much as 80 percent The Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd announced on Tuesday that it has launched a blockchain-based system for its asset custody business. This is the Chinese banking sector's first application of blockchain technology to the core banking business system. Jointly created by PSBC and…

China Buying Everything In Europe That Isn't Nailed Down

Chinese investment in Europe reaches record high

Beijing (dpa) - Chinese outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) soared to a record high in 2016 to reach nearly 200 billion dollars, a report said Wednesday. The European Union continues to be the favorite destination for Chinese investors, however imbalances are growing as Chinese investors spent four times as much on acquisitions in the EU last…

In Other News, Bullets Number One Cause Of Gun Deaths

Survey: Inequality, natural disasters seen as biggest global risks

Vienna (dpa) - Rising social inequality and mounting dangers from the environment are the major global risks to be watched in the coming decade, according to an international survey conducted ahead of next week's World Economic Forum in Davos. The forum organizers polled 750 business executives, scholars and government experts. Widening gaps in income and wealth…

Noose Starting To Tighten Around Bitcoin

Regulation of bitcoin trading to be stepped up

China's financial market regulators are seeking opinions about how to better regulate trading of bitcoin, the virtual currency. These steps may include setting up a depository platform, said sources with close knowledge…

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

I Don't Think It Matters What You Do At This Stage, China. It's Too Late.

China Lets Yuan Drop Before Uncertainties of Trump Era

The Chinese yuan fell against the dollar Monday, following losses Friday. The decline underlines the foreign exchange management challenges for Beijing, which is worried about U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's threat to declare China a currency manipulator. The slide came after the the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, reset the trading range lower to…

Emerging Markets (FXI, EWZ and EEM) Are On A Tear, And I Can't Quite Figure Out Why

I identified some buying opportunities in the Emerging Market's which have been on a ride lately with no sign of letting up. Brazil ETF EWZ was announced as a buy with the purple arrow some time ago with the short-term indicators, but the long term momentum indicators for Brazil just crossed over! I'd like to think I correctly identified a bull-flag that has resulted in this leap from a lower high back in November, but EWZ is now above the 144 day moving average.
China ETF FXI is not quite as well positioned on the long-term momentum indicators but did break out above an overhead resistance line and is making in-roads towards bullish territory.
Finally the Emerging Markets ETF EEM has been showing divergence on the shorter-term momentum indicator for two months now and is poised to make a crucial break above an overhead channel resistance line. Long-term indicators have already crossed over. A move above $36.40 would be a strong bullish signal.

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

In The Midst Of All This Populist American Ethno-Nationalism, The American Dollar Soars

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

A New Wind In Our Sails

All Dutch Trains Now Run 100% On Wind Power

Starting on January 1st, all electric trains in the Netherlands are powered 100% by clean, renewable wind energy. 2015, Dutch railway companies teamed up with Eneco, the sustainable energy company responsible for providing most of the natural gas, electricity, and heat in the Netherlands. Since trains create exponentially more carbon emissions than…

Ah, The 80's. When We Were All High On Coke And Percocet We Couldn't Hear Trump Over The Noise Of Our Line Jet Printers

How Trump-o-nomics Will Bring Back the '80s

In the weeks since Donald Trump was elected, the behavior of U.S. financial markets—and of the stock market in particular—has represented the triumph of hope over common sense. The steady melt-up of the main stock indices to all-time highs is rooted not just in a slowly improving domestic economy, but in optimism: hope that Trump will,…

Sunrise And Sunset

Macy's vs. Amazon: How the department store stacks up against the online giant

One of the country's largest department store chains said it plans to rethink the way it does business. On Wednesday, Macy's announced it would begin to focus on expanding its digital footprint by closing some of its stores following disappointing in-store sales during the 2016 holiday season. Other retailers have also felt the pinch. Sears said…

Monday, January 09, 2017

Consumer Staples (XLP) Is In Bearish Country, But Bollinger Bands Tell Of A Big Move

My call back at the end of November for a "long/buy" on Consumer Staples ETF XLP was a great one, albeit quite risky. We were in bearish territory at the time while underneath the 144 day moving average and the equity plummeting just two days later, but curiously making what appears to be a double bottom shortly thereafter. Currently we still find ourselves in bearish country but with the shorter term EMA's bullishly aligned and not far below 144 moving average. We've also come up to resistance on the upper channel line, so what's next? Today's pullback we came to support right at the EMA(34) and with no breakout above the resistance line in sight. Additionally, the Bollinger Bands are pinching meaning a big move is coming, but which way? The momentum is saying 'down' with the earliest support around $51.15, but were the bottoms put in mid-November and early December really bottoms? I'm not sure this could go further below $49.60, but what worries me about XLP's current configuration is it's proximity to the overhead resistance line and the pinching in the bands. Please have really tight stops for this trade with any move above $52.18 turning this into a "long/buy," but for now the obvious signs are "short/sell." The election rally may be finally running out of steam but a further move down tomorrow will seal this signal.

Yuan May Be Jumping, But Questions Around China's Reserves Persists

Chinese yuan starts new year journey with big jump

SHANGHAI - The Chinese yuan, or renminbi, started the new year with a big jump, surprising the market with a strong strengthening performance. The central parity rate of the yuan continued to strengthen against the US dollar on Friday by a hefty 639 basis points to reach 6.8668, the highest within a month, according to the…

Gas Reserves In Alaska Are Back In, But At What Cost?

Oil drilling in Alaska refuge is again on the table

SEATTLE—Much of the news out of the Arctic lately late has been about efforts to protect the fragile region from new oil and gas development, but that may be about to change. Less than a month after the Obama administration announced that it was banning offshore oil and gas production in most of the Arctic, there…

We've Been Flying Out Of The Gates So Far

US Markets Make Record Start to 2017

The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite all touched record highs to start off 2017, with the Dow coming within 0.37 points of the key 20,000 level, and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closing at all-time highs. The S&P 500 has now gone 59 consecutive days without a 1 percent drop, one of…

First Nividia and Mercedes Benz, Now Baidu and BAIC Are Teaming Up

Baidu and BAIC Motor team up to drive smart vehicles

Baidu's telematics solutions are on display at the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) held in Las Vegas in January 5, 2017. [Photo provided to chinadaily.com.cn] Chinese internet giant Baidu has announced a strategic partnership with automobile manufacturers BAIC Motor to expand the smart vehicle sector. Baidu's autonomous driving research and development arm, Baidu Intelligent Vehicle, will…

Sunday, January 08, 2017

Tim Has Already Stolen My Thunder

Seven ETFs to Ponder
 
By -

It’s going to be a very rainy day here in the Bay Area, so why not relax with some ETF charts (OK, that makes no sense, but I can’t think of an introduction).

The “diamonds’ remain in a DNAAB (Desperately Need An Ass-Beating) pattern. (pronounced ‘de-nab’).
0107-DIA

 The miners, which I am very short by way of DUST, had an amazingly clear top (green tint) that was somewhat mucked up with Thursday’s surge. We’ll see it we can break below that neckline again come Monday.
0107-GDX
Gold, of course, will be the arbiter of that outcome. It seems to me completely plausible that we could sink back down to that red support line at around $109. If it does, DUST is going to do great.
0107-GLD
The small caps share the same DNAAB pattern that the Dow does.
0107-IWM
Homebuilders are squeaky-clean, but the long-term pattern looks like a sector that’s running out of gas.
0107-XHB
Hey, look, another DNAAB pattern! Financials…….
0107-XLF
Lastly, Brazil is a pretty cool setup, since it did an almost perfect gap-fill last week.
0107-EWZ

99 Year Chinese Lease Of Sri Lankan Port As South-East Asian Colonization Continues

Are concerns over Chinese presence in Sri Lanka valid?

It's a deal that the Sri Lankan government hopes will pay off some of its multi-billion dollar debts to China. A controversial agreement has been signed to lease the port of Hambantota to a Chinese state-owned company for the next 99 years. The Chinese government helped foot the $1.3bn bill for the construction of the redeveloped…

Fatigue In Asian Markets

China's stocks down as rally starts to run out of steam

Chinese mainland stocks ended lower on Friday as the New Year rally showed signs of fatigue, with a stronger yuan lending little support to equities. The blue-chip CSI300 index fell 0.6 percent, to 3,347.67 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.4 percent to 3,154.32 points. For the week, CSI300 was up 1.1 percent, while SSEC…

Friday, January 06, 2017

Gold Not Following Bitcoin

Gold Rally Extends

By -

I guess gold got tired of bitcoin having all the gains, as it busted above its small basing pattern and is resuming its rally (I’ve got small short positions in GDX and GDXJ which I suspect will be stopped out instantly at the open Thursday). I’ve pointed out the gap which I’ve mentioned before as a possible target for gold’s recovery. (I’m typing this about midnight EST).
0104-gc

Large Bearish Rising Wedge In Financials?

Financials Sky-High and Range-Bound

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0105-XLF

If Ever I Have Seen A Better Indicator To Go Short...

Broken ES Triangle Stays Broken

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0105-ES
And there’s also this…………
0105-GART

Thursday, January 05, 2017

Buy Signal On Biotechnology (XBI)

I've been droning on about Biotechnology ETF XBI for a while now and today a long/buy signal went in for my proposed head-and-shoulder pattern. Same rules apply: target is $64.50 for the final right shoulder.

Familiar Patterns Developing In Retail

Retail Continues to Break Down

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0105-m

It's On Like Donkey Kong

China Says It Would Win Trade War With US

China would beat the U.S. in a trade war of tariffs as proposed by President-elect Donald Trump because it does not depend exceedingly on exports to fuel the nation's GDP growth, according to Beijing trade officials and economic advisers quoted in the state-run newspaper People's Daily. The officials stated that China had shifted the focus of…

America Turns Back On China And The EU Scoops The Bait

China-EU economic ties go ahead despite headwinds

BRUSSELS - China and the European Union (EU) have gone through a bittersweet year in economy in 2016, stumbling over issues, such as the anti-dumping regime and "analogue country," while continuously advancing in trade, investment and strategic cooperation. Protectionism overshadows ties Growing protectionism in Europe has resulted in mounting EU anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations against Chinese…

Inflation Changes Plans For Eurozone Easing And Stimulus

German inflation rises sharply, unemployment falls

Inflation in Germany has jumped due to costlier energy and food. Consumer prices in the eurozone’s biggest economy were up by 1.7 percent in December from the same month a year earlier. That is close to the European Central Bank’s inflation target of at or just below 2 percent. The reading was much higher than November’s…

Bitcoin Telling Us Something?

Bitcoin Soars in 2016

Bitcoin, the digital currency, ended 2016 on a high, valued at more than $1,000 for the first time in three years. It was trading at $1,014.15 early Tuesday. Bitcoin performed better than any other currency for the year, according to the BBC, climbing in value by nearly $600 or about 125 percent. The surge in value,…

Wednesday, January 04, 2017

Ford Is So Far Behind Tesla It Might As Well Give Up

Ford Reveals New Electric Vehicles, U.S. Production Plans

Ford Motors revealed seven out of 13 new electric vehicles Tuesday, including hybrid versions of the F-150 pickup and Mustang, along with a fully electric SUV with at least 300 miles and a plug-in hybrid Transit Custom van. The automaker hope its electric vehicle plans will make its most popular vehicles “more capable, productive and fun…

Despite "Brexit Meaning Brexit" U.K. Economy Continues To Enjoy Solid Gains

UK and Irish manufacturing show strong growth in December

British manufacturing is going gangbusters indicating strong growth in 2017. In December manufacturing in the UK grew at the fastest pace in two-and-a-half-years. The latest survey of company purchasing managers found the predicted slump following the vote to leave the European Union didn’t materialise indeed the major decline in the value of the pound helped bring…

China Takes The Lead On Recycling

GEM sees opportunities in lithium battery reuse, urban mining

GEM Co Ltd, the listed group involved in urban mining - the recycling of metal, old electronics, batteries and catalytic converters that would otherwise be left to decompose in landfill - said it sees great opportunities in lithium battery reuse as China's new energy car sales rapidly expand. "Although the economy is somewhat cooling down, one…

Tuesday, January 03, 2017

Fed Minutes This Week Might Explain Why Small Caps (XLK) Look Bearish

Small Caps ETF XLK has been on fire lately and I still can't think of a good reason why (that doesn't involve skewed government statistics, an election, increase in part-time jobs, and rising household and government debt). I enjoy riding trends as much as anyone but this one is a little old and corrections are healthy. Recently while I was looking at the thirty-minute chart for XLK I noticed a declining wedge which may be developing because of some of the (possibly) bearish news coming out this week. I'm seeing lower highs on the RSI(5) on the index ETF's and volumes still seem disappointingly low. This may be the first full week back in the market but if you're already out you should probably stay out and just watch from the sidelines because these are starting to seem a little irrational. Stops should be set on any break above the upward resistance line, but this market seems like it's going to do whatever it takes to hit 20,000 even if it means destroying everything and everyone around it, so while we approach this "watershed" moment don't completely discount it from happening, even it is irrational.

Rising Dollar Falling Euro Does Have It's Advantages

Eurozone manufacturing enjoys year end boost

The new year has started with fresh signs that the eurozone’s economic recovery is continuing. Manufacturing in December expanded at the fastest pace in more than five and a half years. In addition orders rose, even as companies raised their prices because raw materials cost more. Surveys of companies’ purchasing managers showed growth was strongest in…

I Would Love To Believe This, I Really Would

China to strengthen property market supervision

China will strengthen housing market supervision to ensure healthy development of the sector, an official statement has said. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported violations of 21 real estate developers, which in hopes of boosting sales,…

I Don't Necessarily Believe Sanciton Relief Is A Bad Thing For Iran, But Then Again

Iran received more than $$10 billion in cash and gold

Iran has received more than $10 billion in sanctions relief from around the world in the form of cash and gold in the past three years, since it signed a preliminary nuclear deal with world powers, The Wall Street Journal has revealed. The large shipments of gold and cash, from oil funds unfrozen in numerous countries,…

On January 20th The Orgy Of Capitalism May Commence

Finally: We look forward to an improving U.S. economy in 2017

WASHINGTON, January 1, 2017 - Real economic growth in 2016 will come in below 3 percent, extending America's run of low-growth years to a grim 11. That is the longest period of economic stagnation in our nation's history. Even in the 1930's during the Great Depression, there were actually three years that saw America's economic growth…

Iron Piling Up In China Is Not A Sign Of A Stabilizing Economy

China's expanding manufacturing activity points to stabilizing economy

BEIJING - China's manufacturing activity expanded for a fifth month in December, pointing to a stabilizing Chinese economy. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 51.4 in December, lower than 51.7 in November and staying above the 50-point boom-bust line for the fifth straight month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a…

Monday, January 02, 2017

Volatility (VXX) Is Set For An Ominous Opening

I've been keeping an eye on Volatility ETF (VXX) for some time now divergence has been in place on my long-term MACD indicator. The shorter term signals are starting to change too with a near-term buy going in today. I've also queried a weak declining wedge pattern but I'm not 100% married to this configuration in our current context. Additionally the RSI(14) signal has put in a "long/buy" with a higher low with volumes still looking strong.
The buy signal on the 30 minute chart I think was put in around 23rd of December with the EMA's now bullishly crossing over. Volatility has been in decline for a considerable but my long-term indicators are fairly reliable and crossover's so seldom I think this signal cannot be ignored. In the context of larger events the market has some seriously overbought conditions that need to be worked off.

China Capital Controls Gives Bitcoin A Boost

Bitcoin celebrates new year with surge in value

It has been a bumper year for bitcoin. Having risen in value in 2016 by 125 percent the digital currency started the new year by jumping above $1,000 for the first time in three years. As most bitcoin trading is done in China, analysts linked that to the fall in the value that country’s currency –…