Tuesday, February 28, 2017

I Thought The Secret Of Life Was '49'

Being purpose driven is good for mind, body and soul

SAN DIEGO, February 28, 2017 - What is your purpose in life? Finding one's life purpose gives meaning to existence and the motivation to create goals which accomplish it. It is what makes us reach for the stars! Researchers are finding that having a higher purpose in life, extending beyond mere day-to-day survival, has major health…

Biotechnology: Remember When I Said This Would Happen?

The moves in Biotechnology ETF XBI have been virtually textbook to the point that I haven't even moved my arrows (odd since I'm often correct but that it takes a tremendous amount more time than I usually anticipate). There was a retracement as forecast with a bounce off of the support line created from highs back in September and November. Today there was a monumental push in XBI, likely on the heals of the State of the Union tomorrow which is being seen by many as pro-business pro-tax cuts. Today there was another break above the old resistance line at around $69.10 which was met with another buy signal on my momentum indicator.

I Want To Know How A Cabinet Member Is Allowed To Own A Bank

Trump's choice for commerce secretary leaves Russia questions unanswered

WASHINGTON — Wilbur Ross is likely to be confirmed as President Donald Trump's secretary of commerce Monday despite unanswered questions about his ownership of a Cyprus bank that caters to wealthy Russians. Ross, a business turnaround specialist, has not responded to a Feb. 16 letter from six Democratic senators asking him to explain his relationship with…

Monday, February 27, 2017

Whatever You Do, Don't Mention The War

China overtakes US as Germany's top trade partner

China overtook the United States and France as Germany's most important trading partner in 2016, data from the Germany's Federal Statistics Office showed on Friday. Trading volumes between Germany and China amounted to 170 billion euros ($180 billion) last year, according to the German statistics agency. Xue Rongjiu, deputy director of the Beijing-based China Society for…

"You Call That A Monopoly. This Is A Monopoly."

FCC To Kill Competition Requirement For Charter-Time Warner Merger

The Federal Communications Commission is reportedly prepared to lift a regulation placed on Charter as part of its merger agreement with Time Warner Cable that required the cable and internet company to deploy broadband connections that are competitive with other providers. The rule, which stems from Charter’s 2015 acquisition of competitor Time Warner Cable, requires Charter…

Arabian Kingdom Transformation Not Palatable To All

Expats In Saudi Arabia Flee New Taxes

Foreigners have begun an exodus from Saudi Arabia as the oil-rich kingdom imposed higher taxes and issued less international work visas in order to counter low energy prices and a slowing economy, Agence France-Presse reported Friday. Saudi Arabia was estimated to host about 10.4 million expats in 2016, nearly half the nation's 20.1 million native population.…

Automation Invasion

Goldman Sacked: How AI Will Transform Wall Street

For the past year, we as a society have been worried sick about artificial intelligence eating the jobs of 3 million truck drivers. Turns out that a more imminently endangered species are the Wall Street traders and hedge fund managers who can afford to buy Lamborghinis and hire Elton John to play their Hamptons house parties.…

Sunday, February 26, 2017

It's Been Swell, But The Swelling Has Got To Come Down (EEM)

Emerging Markets (EEM) have virtually mirrored the general market and have been on a tear since December. I'm all for positive markets and trends but this is starting to get to some worrisome levels. On Friday I think we may have witnessed our first signs to take some profits off the table. On the 60 minute chart the EMA(9) crossed over the EMA(34) which triggered a sell. In the meantime the EMA(34) is no closing in on the EMA(89) for confirmation sell, but please no shorting until the EMA(89) crosses over the EMA(233). So long as the EMA(89) is over the EMA(233) we are still in a bullish market.
EEM has occupied a very narrow channel on the daily chart. I think this is just the beginning of a down-wave before it resumes it's move upwards again. Elliott Wave Theory published a great article on the general market and a very convincing case was made for near-term retracement with a further push up throughout Summer before a Fall correction. Some of that can been seen here in Emerging Markets and this may be the beginning of shallow near-term retracement. The parameters of this channel are poor but it appears as if it broke down Friday with the EMA(5) crossing downward and causing a sell trigger. We've had a good run, so please take money out as a precautionary measure.

With A Holocaust Denier About To Win The Election This Should Be Interesting

France - Over 150 lawmakers call on France to recognise Palestinian statehood

More than 150 French lawmakers signed an open letter on Sunday urging outgoing President Francois Hollande to officially recognise the Palestinian Territories as a state. The move comes during a period of renewed international determination to revive the two-state solution, after the last talks brokered by then US secretary of state John Kerry collapsed back in…

I For One Welcome Our New Russian Overlords

GOP Resists Calls for Independent Russia-Trump Probe

The White House hasn't ruled out a recusal from the attorney general on probes into Russian meddling in the election as prominent Republicans continue to resist calls for an independent investigation. Republicans on the Sunday morning news shows either downplayed a need for an independent probe into Russia's activities or rejected the idea entirely while Democrats…

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Carrot And The Stick, Although I Don't Think Many Of China's Neighbors Will Be Liking The Carrot On Offer

China May Offer Aid, Investment, in Talks on South China Sea

Countries in Southeast Asia are talking one-on-one with China about shared rights to fish and fossil fuels in the contested South China Sea, but nationalism or lack of political trust may snarl any agreements and shift focus to informal economic deals. Senior leaders from China and Vietnam met last month to talk about maritime cooperation that…

Friday, February 24, 2017

Sweet Merciful Crap! Well Timed Aramco IPO For Traders

Saudi Aramco's NYSE IPO The Could Be The Biggest Ever

Investors may be able to trade shares of the world’s largest oil producer on the New York Stock Exchange, in what could be the largest-ever initial public offering, as early as 2018. State-run oil giant Saudi Arabian Oil Co., also known as Saudi Aramco, which was expected to face some obstacles as a result of its…

Just As Trump Becomes President And Wants To Build Up The U.S. Nuclear Arsenal, We "Miraculously" Discover Some Habitable Planets

NASA wants the internet to get hype about these new exoplanets

You can basically read fanfiction about them NASA Have you heard the good news? On Wednesday, scientists announced a fleet of new planets. And not just any old exoplanets: they unveiled a solar system seemingly jam-packed with Earth-sized worlds. Those seven probably-rocky bodies could be an excellent place to search for life. And the good folks…

At Least It Isn't Manipulated As Much As Gold

Bitcoin Madness


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I’ve never traded or owned bitcoin, but I find this chart fascinating:
0224-bitcoin

I Still Think It's Only Going To Be Twice This Year

Fed officials indicate another interest rate hike could come 'fairly soon'

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve policymakers said at their latest meeting that another small hike in a key interest rate could come "fairly soon," opening the door a bit wider to an increase next month, according to minutes of the meeting released Wednesday. Fed officials reiterated their "considerable uncertainty" about the fiscal policies of the new Trump…

We've Seen The High Water Mark, And Now The Water Comes Crashing Back

British economy finishes 2016 strongly but Brexit effects loom

Britain’s economy sped up at the end of last year expanding by more than previously estimated with improved manufacturing growth and stronger exports thanks to the weaker pound. The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics confounded the predictions that the Brexit vote for the UK to leave the European Union would lead to a…

Make Sure To Lock In Those Rates

US Home Sales Surge to 10-Year High

U.S. home resales surged to a nearly 10 year high in January. Wednesday's report from the National Association of Realtors says existing home sales jumped 3.3 percent to an annual rate of 5.69 million homes. The report says sales are being hampered by the smaller-than-usual number of homes available for sale. The real estate industry group…

Thursday, February 23, 2017

I Wish This Were True, I Really Do But Military Spending Is Like Throwing Money Into A Black Hole

Smart Mines, A Smaller Army, & The Trump Buildup That Won’t Happen: Winnefeld

SAN DIEGO: Trump’s promised defense budget boost probably won’t materialize, the former Vice-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs said today, so we can’t afford to grow a larger military. Instead of more ships and troops, retired Adm. James Winnefeld said in a rare public appearance, the military should prioritize investment in new ideas. His own service, for…

We Need A Breather In The Market

Might Retrace A Bit Here

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The channel resistance break at the open yesterday was a significant break, and there’s no short term reason to think that we are making a sizeable turn here. There is quite a lot of short term negative divergence here though and that might deliver a modest retracement. Double trendline support is currently in the 2356/7 area and if SPX can break below there is a possible gap fill target at 2351.16 or we could see another test of the current price floor in the 2340 area, a strong match with the ES weekly pivot at 2337.75. SPX 60min chart:
170222 SPX 60min
If SPX is still on a daily upper band ride then the upper band is currently at 2370 and we should see at least a close test of that today. That’s a decent match with short term rising channel resistance on SPX and one of the possible longer term resistance trendlines that I drew in on the hourly chart. SPX daily chart:
170222 SPX Daily
Looking at ES there is still an open 60min sell signal on there from last night though I was doubtful about the double top setup when I did the chart this morning, and the sideways chop so far today means that I’m disregarding 2347 as a target. That doesn’t mean ES can’t retrace some more though and the short term support trendline break overnight was a strong support trendline break. At the time of writing this action looks like some kind of bull flag forming and I like Stan’s 2351 target if we are to see any more weakness. ES Mar 60min (pre-market) chart:
170222 AM ES Mar 60min
At the time I did this chart this morning I noted that NQ had not broken the short term support trendline and it still hasn’t broken it. That’s currently at 2338 and without that break there is just the open 60min sell signal on the short side, which isn’t to be relied upon in an overall uptrend as strong as this. We may see a weekly pivot test if that support trendline breaks. In the absence of that break the short term trend is still up. NQ Mar 60min (pre-market) chart:
170222 AM NQ Mar 60min
TF broke short term support overnight and isn’t far from a test of the weekly pivot at 1396.30. We may see that test today. TF Mar 60min (pre-market) chart:
170222 AM TF Mar 60min
With the channel breaking up on SPX yesterday there’s no longer an obvious reason to see an imminent high here, though this uptrend is a strong terminal move that could top out at any time. Like a trend day though, while it lasts negative divergences and cycles don’t mean a lot and the only strong reference point here is the daily upper band ride. A failure over two consecutive days to test the daily upper band, now at 2370, ends the band ride and opens the middle band, currently at 2312/3, as a target. A confirmed daily close below the middle band likely ends the uptrend. In the short term the structure is strongly suggesting at least one more higher high, after a possible modest retracement here.


Stan and I are doing two free webinars this week at theartofchart.net an hour after the closes today and tomorrow. The first is the Big Five webinar today (rescheduled from last week) looking at AAPL, AMZN, FB, NFLX and TSLA. We’ve been doing some really nice work on these the last few months and these are all looking toppy here, so that should be interesting. The second tomorrow is a second webinar on ‘Technical Patterns You Can Profit From’ following on from the first one in January. As always the TA will be world-class and the subject matter will be interesting so if you’d like to see either of those you can register for one or both on this page here.

"Use Anthem Because We're A Monopoly"

Anthem Is Banking On Trump And Pence To Revive Merger

After delivering big money to President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, health insurance giant Anthem is now pressing the new administration to settle a federal lawsuit blocking its controversial merger with Cigna, according to new court documents. Meanwhile, Trump has appointed an Anthem lobbyist to a top legal post in the White House --…

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

China Continues To Take Lead On Green Business

China backs Australia's cleaner iron ore project

Chinese engineers who carved a railway through the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and built the world's longest sea-bridge across Hangzhou Bay have a new challenge: developing a $3.4 billion project on Australia's remote Eyre Peninsula to meet increased demand for cleaner iron ore. China Railway Group Ltd, the world's second-largest infrastructure builder, is backing the mine, port and…

This Is Not Encouraging

Central bank injects more money into market

BEIJING - China's central bank made a net cash injection via open market operations for the third consecutive day Monday in an effort to ease a cash strain. The People's Bank of China conducted 170 billion yuan ($24.7 billion) of reverse repos, a process by which the central bank purchases securities from banks through bidding with…

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Telecommunications (IYZ) Looks Promising

Things are a little slow at the moment and I think everyone can understand why. The price to earnings ratio of the market continues to get out-of-hand with a lot of index stocks moving sideways. In the larger market a little pullback is expected (Elliot Trade Theory published a fantastic article on the subject) but among all this downward pressure Telecommunications ETF IYZ seems to be making in-roads for a possible rise with the EMA(5) crossing above the EMA(8). Looking at it's chart It entered a corrective phase just under two months ago. It's currently stuck in a downward channel with upward resistance at around $34.75. For me this simple EMA move signals a possible buy with a confirmation coming from a momentum indicator. The next few days will be critical, but depending on your appetite for risk a small purchase can be made now with another purchase after the break above resistance.

I Think He's Also The King Of Bankruptcy So This Isn't A Healthy Combination

'The King Of Debt' May Make The Deficit Look Bigger

The administration of President Donald Trump has planned to widen the appearance of America’s trade deficit, measured as total exports minus total imports, by changing the method used to calculate it. The new calculation would count items known as “re-exports” — products first imported into the U.S. and then transferred, unchanged, to neighboring countries — as…

Hahahahaha...Oh Wait, You Were Being Serious

Defense Secretary Mattis arrives in Iraq and makes clear the U.S. is not there to take oil

BAGHDAD — Defense Secretary James N. Mattis made an unannounced visit to Iraq's capital on Monday to reassure allies of the U.S. military's commitment to support the sprawling operation to recapture the city of Mosul from entrenched Islamic State militants. Ahead of the trip, however, Mattis made clear he did not advocate President Trump's oft-stated wish…

That's For Damn Sure

Marks: U.S. immigration ban the sign of a failed state

KALAMAZOO, MI, February 20, 2017 – While flying across the globe as an international recruiter for a large Midwestern University, passing through countries and their immigration checkpoints is a frequent occurrence. It is hard to miss that every official at any U.S. Immigration checkpoint is big, burly, super-fit, and packing a gun. Entering the U.S. at…

Monday, February 20, 2017

Feels Like The Beginning Of World War One All Over Again

Against warnings from China, the United States Navy sets out for South China Sea

USA Today is reporting that the United States has deployed the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson to the South China Sea, the vital trade route and resource-rich waters in which China is building and weaponizing islands to claim as its own. The South China Sea hosts some $5.3 million in trade annually. According to the Navy,…

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Two, Tops For 2017

Central Bank Leaders Indicate Three Hikes, But Analysts Have Doubts

With Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testifying Tuesday on the near future of the American economy and the central bank’s plans to maintain steady growth, many wondered whether she’ll follow through on a December suggestion that the Fed would hike interest rates three times in 2017. The Fed already announced it would back away from an…

Probably A Good Idea Since Russia Is Probably Going To Annex Latvia

Defence funding and terrorism to take centre stage at NATO meeting

Brussels (dpa) - Defence spending and the fight against terrorism are expected to dominate a two-day meeting of NATO defence ministers starting Wednesday, which will be the first meeting attended by the new US administration team led by Secretary of Defence James Mattis. All eyes will be on Mattis as NATO allies are seeking assurances on…

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Private Industry Continues To Take The Lead On Climate Change

HP Commits to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Its Global Operations Another 25 Percent

After setting and meeting two successive Scope 1 and Scope 2 absolute reduction goals for greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)1, HP Inc. announces a new target to reduce the GHG emissions from its global operations by 25 percent by 2025, compared to 2015. The new target is a significant milestone for HP as it accelerates its commitment…

Could Not Have Come At A Better Time

China-Venezuela commission oversees refinery expansion project

CARACAS - The China-Venezuela Joint Commission on Tuesday is reviewing the expansion of the Puerto La Cruz refinery, according to Venezuelan Vice-President of Planning and Knowledge Ricardo Menendez. This plant, which was located in the northeastern state of Anzoategui and near the Caribbean Sea, has a current capacity of 129,000 barrels of oil per day for…

Friday, February 17, 2017

The Investment Flood Gates Have Opened And I Doubt They're Going To Get Closed Now

Iran: Trump Stance Won't Derail Foreign Investment in Oil, Gas

Iran's deputy minister for petroleum says the hawkish stance taken by U.S. President Donald Trump on the Iranian nuclear deal is a "passing hiccup" that should not affect foreign investment in the country's energy sector. Amir Hossein Zamaninia made the remarks Wednesday at the CWC Iran LNG and Gas Partnerships Summit in Frankfurt, Germany. Iran has…

I Want To Say Bearish Crude (USO), But Let's See How This Pans Out

Energy has been a general puzzlement lately. On the one hand OPEC is abiding to it's prescribed cuts and on the other the wheels of production are turning again on Shale Oil. Oil ETF USO currently finds itself in a declining channel which is bearish and a sell/short signal went in ages ago on New Years Day, but since then it's been caught in a bit of a range and not a whole lot has happened. To me this seems like a natural play: just wait for it to cross the support or resistance line. The news continues to be so muddled on energy it's best not to make a call at this early stage until the hand has been shown.

If You Ask Nicely Maybe They'll Buy The Rest Of The Country

Nation's investments creating thousands of new British jobs

The fast expansion of Chinese companies in the United Kingdom is creating local jobs at a time when Brexit uncertainties have caused unemployment fears. In addition to direct job creation, employment has also been boosted among supply chain companies as a result of massive Chinese investment, particularly within the infrastructure, property development and energy sectors. "As…

Fake News And Now Fake Money Is A Problem (Apparently)

Nigeria’s Central Bank Slams Fake Currency Claims

Nigeria’s central bank has denied claims by one of its former governors that 20 percent of the currency in circulation in the West African country is fake. In a budget hearing at the country’s National Assembly on Monday, Obadiah Mailafia—a former deputy-governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)—claimed that the huge amount of fake currency…

Thursday, February 16, 2017

I'm Sorry, You Don't Put Up Walls, You Build A Longer Table

Cost of wall is less than cost of services for illegals: Report

If President Trump's border wall stopped just 10 percent of new illegal immigrants it would pay for itself by saving American taxpayers from spending money on services for those migrants over their lifetimes, according to a new report from the Center for Immigration Studies. The center, which advocates for a crackdown on immigration, said illegal border…

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Safe Bet To Watch Biotechnology (XBI) Retrace And Just Buy The Dip

I made a brilliant "long/buy" call for Biotechnology ETF XBI about two weeks ago and it has since powered on to a critical resistance point, $69.00. This is the previous high from back in October I think is going to present a bit of a challenge because the way things stand from a technical standpoint, things are quite overbought. I do believe this will eventually climb above $69.00, but not after some retracement to about $66.00 or slightly above. If you didn't take advantage of the previous call I do believe another buying opportunity will come (a "buy the dip" scenario) so please don't fret. This plan however is aborted if it manages to break above $69.00 which will then become our new support. Otherwise what seems to be playing out here is an ascending triangle pattern.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

This Is Going To Be One Hard Uphill Battle

China poised to defend against rising protectionism

BEIJING - As anti-globalization appears to be sweeping across world economies still struggling with slow recoveries, China is poised to defend its exports against escalating protectionism. "We do not want trade wars, but we will be well-prepared for and actively respond to any trade remedy measures from other countries and regions to protect the interests of…

I Don't Think The U.S. Will Follow China's Lead On Energy Independence

Trump Wants To Reduce Waste And Grow Jobs? Good, These Methane Policies Do Just That

This post originally appeared on the EDF Voices blog. Today, lawmakers are using the Congressional Review Act to dismantle common-sense energy policies that can save Americans hundreds of millions of dollars and prevent massive amounts of energy resources from being needlessly wasted. The targeted policies from the Bureau of Land Management apply to oil and gas…

Monday, February 13, 2017

Adherence To Cuts Has Been Tricky In The Past

OPEC producers really are pumping less, boosting crude prices

Oil prices jumped as much as two percent on Friday on word that OPEC producers have achieved around 92 percent of the output cuts they had pledged. Eleven members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had agreed to pump less from January to raise prices. Previous such deals had much lower compliance – initially…

China Continues To Take Lead In Global Governance

Chinese landmark concept put into UN resolution for first time

UNITED NATIONS - The Chinese concept of building "a human community with shared destiny" was on Friday incorporated into a UN resolution for the first time, mirroring the global recognition of the concept, diplomats told Xinhua. The 55th UN Commission for Social Development (CSocD) approved a resolution by consensus, which calls for more support to Africa's…

China Clean Energy Push Continues

China plans 50b yuan of investment in rural methane projects

BEIJING - China will spend 50 billion yuan (about $7.3 billion) on building methane projects in rural areas as the government seeks to increase the use of clean energy. According to a plan released by the country's top economic planner, during the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) period, China will build 172 new biogas projects and 3,150…

In My Day We Smoked It: Diversification In The Marijuana Industry

Marijuana Enthusiasts Are Trading In Joints For Concentrates And Microdosing

When Jeff Patterson first created Eaze, an app service that allows medical marijuana patients to purchase home-delivered cannabis products from 100 different dispensaries across California, 80 percent of the marijuana products purchased through the app consisted of raw flower. But nearly three years after launching the app in 2014, Eaze’s 250,000-strong cliental have started spending their…

Sunday, February 12, 2017

American Dollar (UUP) Looking Good (Unfortunately)

A few internet commentators are writing quite bullishly on the subject of gold which I thought was odd when I looked at U.S. Dollar ETF UUP. I haven't written on currencies in a while but since all the index ETF's are crazy bullish right now, I thought this might be a little more interesting to offer something different. My indicator system called a long/buy on UUP two/three days ago and Friday it broke out of a downward channel that lasted two months. The U.S. dollar is looking very strong; technical indicators reflect this with UUP well above the MA(144) and the EMA(13) closing in on the EMA(34).  Is this a major uptrend channel? I've tried to imagine what it might look like if we have in-fact reached a watershed moment in the past week with wave three having been just completed. I don't think gold is a buy.

Ya Can't Fault Them, Italian Vino Is The Best

2016 record year for Italian wine exports to China: Report

ROME - Italy's wine sales to China registered a record increase in terms of value last year, according to a market study released here on Thursday. "In 2016, Italy achieved the highest growth in terms of value (of wine exports) in China, compared to all major competitors," Bologna-based wine monitor Nomisma said in a report. The…

An Historic Address For More Than One Reason

Trump has historic opportunity on budget, entitlements

ANALYSIS/OPINION In a few weeks, President Trump will address a joint session of Congress. He is expected to offer up his thoughts on taxes and spending, and while the markets have rallied since his election on the expectation of major tax reform, the question on everyone's mind is, will he also take the opportunity to acknowledge…

Brexit? What Brexit?

UK economy resilient at end of 2016, manufacturing jumps

Britain’s economy remained resilient at the end of last year according to the latest official figures despite the surprise vote in June to leave the European Union. However 2017 looks likely to be more difficult. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK industrial output rose 1.1 percent (4.3 percent year-on-year) in December. Manufacturing output…

A Time When America Will Take A Pass

Experts say time is right to join TPP

Move would help to strengthen economic ties throughout the Asia-Pacific region China should join the Trans-Pacific Partnership as soon as possible to build closer business ties with countries in the Asia-Pacific region and further cut the possibility of trade friction, according to a report by a leading think tank. The report, released on Thursday by the…

Thursday, February 09, 2017

Strange Times Make For Strange Bed-fellows

Wall Street Is On My Side, Says Warren

Major financial firms appeared to express support for a pending federal regulation that would force them to put their clients interests above their own. The comments emerged days after President Donald Trump issued an executive order that could end up killing the proposed rule before it is ever implemented. On Tuesday, Sen. Elizabeth Warren released a…

Energy Independence In The U.S.

America’s 21st Century Energy Story

America’s energy renaissance is the story of domestic natural gas and oil production that’s making the country stronger economically and more secure while benefiting consumers and improving the environment. A pretty good tale, indeed. Let’s start with energy production. The United States is the world’s leading oil and natural gas producer, thanks to vast shale energy…

Already Setting Up For 2020

GOP's silencing of Sen. Elizabeth Warren raises her profile as Democratic alternative to Trump

WASHINGTON — The winner of CNN's prime-time debate between likely 2020 presidential contenders Sens. Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz was clear: Sen. Elizabeth Warren. The Massachusetts Democrat punctured the political noise in a defining way late Tuesday night when Senate Republicans silenced her reading of Coretta Scott King's years-ago criticisms of Trump's attorney general pick, Sen.…

Wednesday, February 08, 2017

More Cushion For The Pushin'

A Clean Getaway

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I don’t normally monkey around with leveraged ETFs, but I was so enthralled by energy’s weakness, I had built up a big long position in ERY (as mentioned in my Lake Erie post on Tuesday). Last night, I calculated the measured move on it, drew a horizontal line, and watched it closely. Wednesday morning, before the inventory report, ERY nailed its target, so I GTFO in a big hurry. Thank goodness, eh?
0208-ERY
Oh, and, umm, this tweet from this morning kind of sealed the decision for me:
0208-gart

Somebody Is Getting A Little Defensive

I'll admit Treasury ETF TLT is bearishly aligned while it is well below the MA(144) and the EMA(8) has only just crossed over the EMA(13), there's something about this that looks like it's a decent near-term buy. February is typically a poor month for equities and often after an election it is almost always a down month so why wouldn't people be defensive anyway? The Fed is talking about an interest rate increase in March and the dollar continues to rise, too. The last call I made for a bottom in TLT just before the new year was a good one and we saw a breakout from its four month declining channel. My Point and figure chart agrees and says a bullish target of $125.58 which I'd have to agree with when looking at my tentative channel drawing.


Tuesday, February 07, 2017

Sweet Tap-Dancing Christ, Here We Go Again...

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

Raising Interest Rates A Trend Likely Seen Elsewhere

China signals neutral monetary policy with rate hikes

BEIJING - On the first working day of the Year of the Rooster, China's central bank surprised financial markets by raising lending rates to banks, widely interpreted as a shift towards neutral monetary policy as economic fundamentals improve. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced Friday, a 10 basis point rise in the interest rate of…

Going Green Is Bringing In The Green

Sustainable Companies Outperform Peers in Value Creation

Corporate sustainability efforts include programs that address issues such as climate change, resource efficiency and circular economy, sustainable agriculture, and chemicals management. Some of the most valuable program approaches include product innovation, design and development, activating a sustainability purpose in the business, and responsible sourcing. According to a recent survey by the sustainability consulting firm, Pure…

Monday, February 06, 2017

China Surpassing U.S. In Combined Banks Value

Chinese banks lead in brand value

Chinese banks are now global leaders not just by asset base but also by brand value, according to the latest version of Brand Finance Banking 500, which says the combined value of Chinese banks has surpassed that of US banks for the first time. The report, released on Wednesday by the London-based business valuation consultancy, places…

Self Reliance And Efficiency Come First

China to deepen reform in agricultural sector

BEIJING - China will deepen supply-side structural reform in agriculture to cultivate new development engines for the sector, according to a policy document released Sunday. The major problems facing China's agricultural sector are structural ones, mainly on the supply side, according to the document by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the…

Funny, I Thought He Hated Wall Street

Trump And His Bank CEO Advisers Seek To End Dodd-Frank

President Donald Trump’s newest executive action will slash the financial reforms created in response to the Great Recession as a way to prevent recent history from repeating itself, the Wall Street Journal reported early Friday morning. The 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act—which boosted monitoring of banks once labeled “too big to fail,”…

Well So Far It's Just Two Regulations And Not An Entire War

Rex Tillerson's Former Company Is Already Winning Out Under Trump

Former ExxonMobil Corp. Chief Executive Rex Tillerson was sworn in only Wednesday, and already Congress is moving to benefit the new secretary of state’s former—and only—place of work by shredding two major oil industry regulations. Early Friday morning, the Republican-led Senate voted 52 to 47 on a House resolution scrapping a Securities and Exchange Commission rule…

Sunday, February 05, 2017

This Is Unexpected

US Job Growth Exceeds Expectations

Intersecting with the last month of the Obama Presidency and with the first month of the Donald Trump Presidency, the monthly U.S. jobs report released by the Labor Department Friday shows that the economy added 227,000 jobs in January — the largest gain recorded in four months, and up from December’s 157,000. The eagerly awaited figures…

Why Am I Even Bothering? Financial ETF XLF

Seriously, what's the point? Dodd-Frank is going to be repealed and another regulation for advisers managing retirement savings is also going to get revoked. Overhead resistance of the Financial ETF XLF is $23.80, but I expect this to broken early in the new week. My indicators haven't even crossed over yet but I expect these to also change in the new week.
The 30 minute chart also appears to be putting in an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. A long/buy signal went in on the 3rd according to my indicators but overhead resistance still appears to $23.80.

Wise Counsel

The Deregulation Myth

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I was aghast this week when I read that Trump was going to torpedo the Dodd-Frank regulations. As a people, we learned precious little from the sins that led up to the financial crisis. Famously, not a single person went to jail, and over the past eight years of “healing”, the bankers have simply become richer……..and richer……….and richer.  The icing on the cake just came, with the feeble regulations that were enacted to reign them in being sent to the chopping block.

It got me thinking to the last time the government torpedoed well-meaning bank regulations, and that was with the the passing of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley act. This act of Congress, which torched the Glass-Steagall law, established a foundation for the financial crisis that would take place years later.
I was wondering to myself, however, how the market embraced the “good” news of deregulation, particularly since these days there is tremendous optimism that Trump’s destruction of all rules, environmental or otherwise, is going to herald in yet another massive leg-up in the bull market. As a point of reference, I’ve put an arrow on the point in the Dow 30 Industrials where the Gramm-Leach bill was passed.
0204-indu
Look, things still look really bad for equity bears. But I at least wanted to get across the fact that the gutting of deregulation doesn’t necessarily herald the beginning of a glorious new age of bull profits. On the contrary, it can sometimes act as its coda.

Not Quite Blind, Not Quite Dumb Either

Report: Trump Assets in Revocable, Not Blind, Trust

Many U.S. presidents have placed their financial holdings in a blind trust that is managed by a trustee without any input from the president. This arrangement is believed to help the president avoid any conflicts of interest between his finances and issues that come across his desk. U.S. President Donald Trump, however, has avoided calls for…

Friday, February 03, 2017

Stabilzing Yet Predictable

China's January PMI slightly down to 51.3

BEIJING -- China's manufacturing sector expands for the sixth month in a row, adding evidence that the world's second largest economy is stabilizing amid uncertain global outlook. The country's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 51.3 in January, 0.1 percentage points lower than that recorded in December, according to data released Wednesday by the…

Great, But Imports Are Still Up And The Sterling Is Crap

Bank of England revises up UK growth forecasts

LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday revised up its growth forecasts for the British economy for the coming three years but cautioned about the inflation outlook in the wake of the pound's sharp decline since the country's vote to leave the European Union. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England attends the quarterly…

It's Hard When The Shoe Is On The Other Foot

You didn’t care when Obama did it

Week two of Donald Trump’s presidency and George Orwell’s iconic boot is already stamping the face of every American. At least that’s how the left sees it. The Atlantic’s latest cover story about Trump is titled “How to build an autocracy” while the less pithy New Republic warns that “Donald Trump is becoming an authoritarian leader…

Thursday, February 02, 2017

Biotechnology (XBI) Looks Set To Finally Breakout

Biotechnology ETF (XBI) has been caught in a condensing pattern since the beginning of October, but has enjoyed some wild swings in that time. This previously vulnerable sector has gone onto enjoy quite a run since Trump won the election and took office. XBI is bullishly aligned long-term with MA(144) well below the trend and the EMA(8) and EMA(13) having just bounced upwards off of the EMA(34). After Tuesday's rise a long/buy signal was issued. Overhead resistance is around $66.40, but the way things stand right now this looks like it'll breakout.

It May Be Boring, But This Might Be The Calm Before The Storm

Being Boring

By -

I want Slope to be exciting and interesting. I want people to seek it out on a daily basis to read what I’ve got to say. But, Good God in heaven almighty, just look what I have to work with these days, people:
0201-rut
That’s the Russell 2000 for the past two months. Day after day after day of going nowhere. Some days a little up. Some days a little down. On the whole: zilch.

Well, perhaps we should try something besides equities, right? I mean, c’mon, Tim, quit yer bitching. I hear the crude oil market can be wild and wooly. Let’s check out out!
0201-crude
Ummm…….welp, apparently OPEC has managed to secure a $53 price for oil, and there it stays, week after week, month after month.

Just about the only slightly interesting phenomenon I’ve noticed lately is that energy stocks are starting to sink, even though oil itself steadfastly stays at $53. Take note of this divergence:
0201-divege
On the whole, though, the market is about as exciting and engaging as a compendium of essays about Roseanne Barr’s sex life.

On a personal note, I’m pleased to say that it looks like there is interest in my screenplay. From what I’ve learned about the moviemaking business, the odds of a new screenwriter getting any interest at all is precisely 0.00, so I’m excited to have two promising leads. At least I have something to occupy me besides this goddamned market, which is putting all of us to sleep.

I Don't Foresee Any Adverse Implications For This Move Whatsoever

Trump Signs Order to Cut Business Regulations

U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order cutting regulations on businesses. Trump held a closed door meeting at the White House with small business owners before the signing. The president repeated his desire to cut business regulations by as much as 75 percent. He said it is his desire to make it as easy…

People Don't Do Bacon For Religious Reasons, I Don't Do Religion For Bacon Reasons

As nation's bacon supply hits 60-year-low, get ready to pay more

The country's bacon reserve is as low as it's been since Dwight Eisenhower occupied the White House, according to a report. Though that's pushing prices up, pork lovers needs not worry about the U.S. running out of bacon, according to Cincinnati.com. Pork belly prices climbed about 20 percent in January thanks to steady demand and the…

Hikes Could Take Decades, Trump Economic Policy Unclear

Here's Why The Fed Isn't Raising The Interest Rate Just Yet

Following a December hike in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate target, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen announced Wednesday the central bank’s decision to avoid giving the rate its third hike since the recession. Analysts were largely expecting the Fed to delay another hike in the federal funds rate, keeping the rate at which banks lend to one…

Wednesday, February 01, 2017

Well D'uh!! I Thought That Was The Whole Point Of Electing Him In The First Place

Corporate CEO's Predict Jackpot From Trump White House

Though polls show a majority of Americans disapprove of the way President Donald Trump is handling his job, one group of elites seems enthusiastic about the new White House occupant: CEOs of companies with big business before Trump’s administration. In corporate earnings calls since the election, top executives from the fossil fuel, defense contracting, border security…