Thursday, March 29, 2018

Well, If There's One Bright Spot It's Malaysia (EWM)

The markets are in the throws of a healthy correction at the moment and frankly I couldn't be more pleased. It's long overdue and valuations and P/E ratios need to come back to earth and find a more rational level. I suppose not everything needs to fall and right now that's Malaysia ETF EWM. It's forming an ascending triangle and has reached resistance levels formed by previous tops over the months. The EMA's are positioned correctly and I just had a crossover in a long term indicator. Any close above $35.80 would be very bullish.

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Forget DropBox, This Is The IPO Of The Decade

Saudi Aramco chief says IPO on track for 2018

The head of Saudi oil giant Aramco has said a much-anticipated IPO is on track for 2018, but declined to give a fixed date -- or venue. "We should be ready for listing in the second half of 2018," CEO Amin Nasser told Bloomberg Television on Monday, conceding that the oil giant was looking at a "complex process".

Shame, Africa Needs This

No escape for Mozambique as debt troubles mount

Mozambique's renewed efforts to solve its spiralling "secret debt" crisis have again collapsed, leaving the country struggling to recover its reputation as one of Africa's potential growth hotspots. Last week, Finance Minister Adriano Maleiane flew to London to present creditors with a long-awaited restructuring plan for the $2.2-billion (1.77 billion euros) debt that Mozambique has defaulted on since last year.

What's Next, Trump Starts Reading Books?

Saudi Arabia and Russia consider 10 to 20 year oil alliance

Saudi Arabia and Russia are working on a long-term deal to extend their alliance on oil curbs that began in January, 2017, after a crash in crude prices. "We are working to shift from a year-to-year agreement to a 10-20 year agreement," Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Reuters news agency.

Monday, March 26, 2018

I Think There's More To Worry About Than That!!

Retail shoppers worry about specter of tariffs

As US President Donald Trump signed a memo on Thursday that could lead to tariffs on up to $60 billion worth of goods imported from China, many in the US are gauging what the impact will be. Before Thursday's announcement, China Daily spoke to shoppers in the Washington area.

Sunday, March 25, 2018

And Like That When They Had A Chance To Do Something I Think The U.S. Stopped Being The Supreme Super-Power

The D.C. swamp is alive, well and flush with $1.3 trillion

Congress, led by Republicans, passed a $1.3 trillion spending bill to keep the government operational through the end of the fiscal year, September 30. The message to voters? Democrats and Republicans are one and the same.

Seems Like The Gun Protests In The U.S. Just Got Endorsed By The Pope

Don't Be Silenced, Pope Francis Urges Young People

With the “March for our Lives” rally fresh in the minds of hundreds of thousands of gun control supporters who took to U.S. streets in protest this weekend, the leader of the Catholic Church has called on young people not let themselves be silenced.

From The Master

Warren Buffett Recommends Investing in Index Funds — But Many of His Employees Don’t Have That Option

Warren Buffett, the most successful investor of our time, is a huge fan of low-cost index funds — funds that replicate a market index rather than try to outperform it — as the way for the average investor to succeed in the stock market.

Dark Side Of Data Driven Tech Model

Facebook crisis prompts Silicon Valley soul-searching

With Facebook mired in its worst-ever crisis, the rest of Silicon Valley is looking to come to terms with the dark side of its data-driven business model where tech titans have mined fortunes from what people reveal online.

Yeah...Life, Everything

Trump China Tariffs May Make These Goods More Expensive

President Donald Trump proposed tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese import on Thursday, with the focus likely to be on the technology and telecommunications sector. Over the next few weeks, the White House will announce a list of imported products that will be subject to the tariffs, according to the presidential memorandum.

Saturday, March 24, 2018

Could Not Have Come At A Better Time

March for Our Lives awakens the spirit of student and media activism of the 1960s

By Errol Salamon, Postdoctoral Researcher and Visting Scholar in Communication, University of Pennsylvania. Students rally in front of the White House in Washington, March 14, 2018. AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster A student movement against gun violence is receiving sustained news coverage.

Who Cares About More Debt. We Know How Trump Deals With It, He'll Just Write It Off.

The Senate passed a $1.3 trillion, 2,232-page Omnibus while you slept. Did anyone bother to read it besides Rand Paul?

For eight years, Republicans blasted President Obama and the Democrats for runaway spending. For eight years, Republicans said “vote for us” to end the madness. They lied. Last night, the Republican-controlled U.S.

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

The Hits Keep On Coming

EU to unveil digital tax targeting Facebook, Google

The EU will unveil proposals for a digital tax on US tech giants on Wednesday, bringing yet more turmoil to Facebook after revelations over misused data of 50 million users shocked the world. The special tax is the latest measure by the 28-nation European Union to rein in Silicon Valley giants and could further embitter the bad-tempered trade row pitting the EU against US President Donald Trump.

And I Expect Firms Are Salivating

Asset managers to gain more leeway

Securities market access set to be widened in a more gradual manner China will continue to open the onshore securities market to foreign asset managers and will grant them wider access to the market in a gradual manner, said an official of the Asset Management Association of China.

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Here We Go Again...

US crude exports becoming bigger presence in global oil

Boosted by surging output, the United States is becoming a significant exporter of crude oil, a shift that is remaking American infrastructure and altering the global petroleum market. Now pumping more than 10 million barrels per day, the US has become the second biggest oil producer in the world behind Russia and ahead of Saudi Arabia.

Sage Wisdom, But Will He Listen?

IMF chief warns 'no winners' in trade wars

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde cautioned the United States against putting up barriers to trade in an interview published Sunday. "Trade wars leave no winners," she said in the interview with Argentine daily La Nacion, responding to a question about President Donald Trump's decision to slap tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.

China And U.S. Going In Opposite Directions

For a world plagued by protectionism, China shows how to share success

BEIJING - As a senior banking executive, David Li has already witnessed dramatic changes in China since its opening up decades ago. After hearing the government work plans this year, the chairman and chief executive officer of J.P.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

An IPO Worth Getting Excited About

Spotify to go public on April 3

Spotify will go public on April 3 as the world's largest streaming company lists on the New York Stock Exchange. Paul Vogel, the Swedish company's head of investor relations, made the announcement at the start of a day of briefings to potential funders in New York.

This Is A Competition Where The Winner Is The Environment

World's biggest battery in Australia to trump Musk's

British billionaire businessman Sanjeev Gupta will built the world's biggest battery in South Australia, officials said Friday, overtaking US star entrepreneur Elon Musk's project in the same state last year.

Saturday, March 17, 2018

Okay...Interesting Product Cross Synergy....I Guess

Hello Kitty to make bullet train debut in Japan

Hello Kitty has already found its way onto bus and aircraft services -- and is now set to make its debut on Japan's iconic bullet train. West Japan Railway will launch "Hello Kitty Shinkansen" services on its bullet train line connecting Osaka and Fukuoka later this year, the company said this week.

Shocking That He's Become The Voice Of Reason And Moderation In America

Rand Paul is still right about Gina Haspel 

This week, when Sen. Rand Paul announced that he will oppose to Gina Haspel as new CIA Director due to her widely reported support for torture, the senator read from a 2017 ProPublica story that originally stated that Haspel had relished in harsh interrogation at a particular black site, including mocking a detainee and destroying evidence of the act.

Friday, March 16, 2018

Some Worrying Ascending Wedges in SPY and QQQ

There's not much to say except a couple of ascending wedges have appeared with patterns that may resolve in some pretty key ETFS, namely QQQ and SPY. Near term sell signals have also appeared in the EMA's so its very likely, as I have alluded to in previous posts, the fall last month has not resolved and that there would be a bounce.


Thursday, March 15, 2018

An Unwelcome Development: Faith Is Being Lost

China unloads Blackstone stake amid Trump trade tension

China's sovereign wealth fund has sold its stake in Blackstone Group, the US private equity firm has said, ending a decade-long investment at a time of simmering bilateral trade tension. Blackstone said in an annual report released earlier this month that China Investment Corp (CIC) had recently unloaded the stake that it first began to acquire in 2007 when China sought lucrative ways to invest its massive foreign exchange reserves.

China Continues To Clean

State Grid supplies cleaner energy

The State Grid Corporation of China is building an energy-services company to promote the distribution of clean energy as part of its efforts to restructure energy consumption in the country, said the corporation's chairman.

Update: Financial Services (XLF) Ascending Wedge Forming

Sorry my previous post was supposed to be published two days ago and the picture has now changed quite dramatically. It no longer looks like a breakout but rather a bearish ascending wedge!

Financial Services (XLF) Breakout OR Double Top Forming?

I'm being inundated by moves in the charts because everyone seems to be moving at once, but Financial Services ETF XLF has just broken out of a condensing triangle. My apologies but the signal went in a few days ago but yesterday we had a confirmation signal with a move and close above $29.40. I'd be very careful as this approaches $30.20 and for now I'm just watching. Many observers have said that the bearish case has not been totally invalidated from a technical standpoint and for now (as I am pessimist and rather cautious by nature) I think watching is just fine. You have to wonder, perhaps this is a double top going in? I'm interested in hearing what others think.

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Why Does This Always Sound Like History Repeating Itself?

J-20 stealth fighter's capabilities to be enhanced

China will continue to improve and upgrade its cutting-edge J-20 stealth fighter jet, giving it more capabilities than merely penetrating an enemy's air defense networks, according to its chief designer.

Monday, March 12, 2018

Emerging Markets (EEM) And China (FXI) Set To Breakout?

I'm not sure where all this optimism and euphoria is coming from but China Large Caps ETF FXI and Emerging Markets ETF EEM are set to breakout despite a warning that they are at risk of a banking crisis (Bloomberg article here). Everything looks to be in place with some long-term markers imminently about to turn over while the near term EMA's already have. FXI is currently caught in a condensing triangle so it could go either way but my feeling is it's about to go upside.
EEM looks very similar here with a convincing breakout. Today will be our confirmation of the breakout if we have a close above the resistance line.

I Expect The Chinese To Be Buying All These

France gears up for next wave of asset sales

French President Emmanuel Macron will be putting his investment banking chops to use in coming weeks as his government prepares a new wave of state asset sales to pay for his "disruptive innovations" fund.

Uhhh I Don't Think So, Some Other Warning Signs Are Present

Return of market volatility no cause for alarm: BIS

Volatility on the financial markets is back, but central banks need not be alarmed by any sudden ructions and jolts as crisis-fighting measures are gradually rolled back, the Bank of International Settlements said on Sunday.

Fintech Continues To Spread, Still Bullish On Blockchain

How Blockchain can 'revolutionise' the world

Proponents of blockchain technology say that it is set to revolutionise the world with wide-reaching applications in finance, academia, and international trade. Blockchain - known as distributed shared ledgers - is a technology that records and verifies transactions based on cryptography.

Sunday, March 11, 2018

An Exercise We Are Only Starting Now

Trade wars: Counting the cost of Trump's tariff plan

In a controversial move this week, US President Donald Trump has imposed steep tariffs of 25 percent for steel and 10 percent for aluminium imports to the US, which will take effect in two week's time.

Friday, March 09, 2018

BTFD For Consumer Staples?

Maybe the signing of the Tariff Law had something to do with this although in reality it should be having the opposite effect if Trump understood the kind of refined products his country makes rather raw resources, but Consumer Staples ETF XLP is showing some life. We have a break in the sharp trend line as well as a buy signal on one of long-term indicators. XLP also makes these episodic dalliances below the MA(144) to power ahead for a while on longer term charts. It is an awkward pattern I'll admit but it feels like a good move and I think yesterday confirms that. I expect overhead resistance to be somewhere around $56.40.



Steel Tariffs: He's Clearly Making This Up As He Goes Along

Canada, Mexico, Others Could Be Spared From US Tariffs on Metals

Some countries are now likely to be spared from planned tariffs on metals advocated by U.S. President Donald Trump. "We expect that the president will sign something by the end of the week, and there are potential carve-outs for Mexico and Canada, based on national security, and possibly other countries as well, based on that process," White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters Tuesday.

Thursday, March 08, 2018

I Agree, But Do You Think This Is Really Going To Happen? I Mean, Really?

Rand Paul: It’s time to pass Audit the Fed

Despite overwhelming support from the American people for action, and a grassroots push that has led to multiple victories in the U.S. House of Representatives, the Senate has so far failed to follow the lead of our colleagues across the Capitol to Audit the Fed.

Colonialism v2.0: U.S. Influence Waning In Africa (Not That It Had Very Much To Begin With)

China, Russia Mounting Growing Challenge to US in Africa

China and Russia are working to expand their influence across Africa, hoping to outspend or out-compete the United States, U.S. officials warn, describing it as part of a larger effort by both countries to reshape the world order.

Wednesday, March 07, 2018

Further To The Fantastic Previous Article On Silver (SLV)

Further to the absolutely excellently written article by Clive Maund that appeared in yesterday's post (if someone says it better, why not) what I thought was missing an 'intermediate' chart to show where we stand with silver. His analysis is often times better than superb and he takes very long views meaning some of the shorter time frames for Silver ETF SLV are left out. Looking at the weekly view  we can see SLV is rather unexceptional. It has been floating at the threshold of the MA(144) on the daily chart and seems to be making a declining triangle on the weekly. Support underneath it is at $14.75 but a confirmed breakout will come at $16.00 and $16.75. Remember all of this is with regards to its current pattern rather looking at its yearly chart and COT report, which as Clive reminds us is currently uniquely positioned at the moment.

Tuesday, March 06, 2018

Guest Post: Silver > Gold, What's Happening?

SILVER SPECIAL COMMEMORATIVE UPDATE - in honor of THE LARGE SPECS FIRST NET SHORT POSITION IN SILVER IN MEMORY...

originally published Saturday, March 03, 2018
The purpose of this update is to commemorate the Large Specs having their first net short position in silver since the site started 15 years ago, and also to consider how we can turn this to our advantage. Before we look at silver’s latest extraordinary COT chart and consider its implications, we will first quickly review the silver charts.
We will start with an 8-year chart that shows the big picture and includes the entire bear market from the April – May 2011 peak. On this chart we see that silver is in the very late stage of a giant downsloping Head-and-Shoulders bottom and currently grinding sideways marking out a protracted Right Shoulder low. Because of its downslope, many observers think that silver’s bearmarket is ongoing and fail to spot that this is a giant base pattern, but the parallel Head-and-Shoulders bottom in gold is much more obvious because it is flat-topped, and it is this that helps give the game away. Also because of the downslope, silver is viewed by many as being less attractive than gold, but it is normal for silver to underperform gold towards the end of a sector bearmarket and into the early stages of a bullmarket. This results in silver and silver related investments becoming grossly undervalued and neglected, and creates the conditions for a powerful rally that appears seemingly “out of the blue”. One bullish factor that seems to have escaped the notice of many observers is that volume has been building steadily for many months, which is sign of increasing distress selling by frustrated longtime holders of silver, but since the price is no longer dropping it is clear that Smart Money is mopping up their offerings at an increasing rate too. While breakout from the base pattern will be signaled by a break clear above its downsloping “neckline” silver probably won’t really get moving until it breaks above the 1st band of resistance shown.
The shorter-term 6-month chart shows us recent action in much more detail. Whilst this chart is of limited use technically, it does show us that the price and moving averages are now very closely bunched together, a frequent precondition for a big rally, although this same moving average bunching occurred back in October, but that led to a break lower instead, however, at that time the COTs were not bullish at all as they are now. At this point silver is less than $3 above its bearmarket lows in late 2015 just below $14, so it is currently very cheap and good value.

Now we come to the main focus of this article, which is to highlight silver’s latest COT, that is viewed as being extraordinarily bullish. You gotta love the Large Specs – they have a time honored tradition of being a very reliable contrary indicator, and with silver they have been and are making a special effort to uphold this tradition, and on this occasion they are “going the extra mile” by relinquishing their long positions completely so that true contrarians like us can zoom in and scoop up silver and silver related investments at rock bottom prices. The protracted year-long Right Shoulder low of the H&S bottom has ground them into the dust and they have finally given up and thrown in the towel. The setup could not be more bullish, especially considering the current silver / gold ratio.
Click on chart to popup a larger clearer version.

One somewhat troubling anomaly that we have had to contend with is that gold’s COT is nowhere near as bullish as silver’s, in fact it is not bullish at all and if anything is verging on bearish. This rather bizarre situation that has not been seen before, at least not to this extent, suggests one of two possible outcomes – either gold and silver are going to decouple and go their separate ways, which is viewed as almost impossible that they are both extracted from the same ore, or silver is going to advance and take gold along for the ride, so that gold’s COT structure simply becomes more extreme. The key point to key in mind regarding this is that the combination of a very positive silver / gold ratio and an exceptionally bullish silver COT means that silver is not going down, or if it does drop it will be by a trivial amount, while the upside potential is now very big.
Click on chart to popup a larger clearer version.

The latest silver Hedgers chart, while not at record bullish extremes yet, is not far off them…
Click on chart to popup a larger clearer version.
Chart courtesy of sentimentrader.com

Finally, we take a look at the silver / gold ratio which shows that on the last 3 occasions that the ratio got this low over the past 20 years, it marked a bottom and presaged a major uptrend in both gold and silver. The 1st time, in 2003, led to the major bullmarket of the 2000s, the 2nd time, in 2008, marked the panic low of the 2008 global market crash, and led to major uptrends into parabolic blowoff tops in gold and silver in 2011, the 3rd time, late in 2015, marked the final bearmarket lows in gold and silver, which were followed by the rise out of the low of the Head of their respective Head-and-Shoulders bottoms. The full potential implied by this last very low reading of the silver / gold ratio late in 2015 is a long way off being realized, and the great news for would be investors in the sector is that the dip by the ratio in the recent past to approach its late 2015 lows has been accompanied by a corresponding drop in the price of silver and silver investments, making them extremely cheap again, but this is believed to be the last time we will see these low prices on offer, especially as the dollar has broken down from a major top area and is now entering what could easily turn out to be a severe downtrend.
Clearly, from all of the above, we are at a great juncture to buy the silver sector aggressively now – silver ETFs, silver ETFs and silver stocks. We have looked at a selection of silver stocks in the recent past and will be adding to them, and in addition we went for a couple of leveraged silver bull ETFs about a week ago, which are now at about the same prices and still look very attractive.
End of update.

Biting The Hand That Feeds It

More Troubles for Chinese Oil Firm As Govt Moves to Retrieve $3 Billion

The Nigerian government has commenced legal proceedings against the Chinese-owned oil firm, Addax Petroleum Development Nigeria Ltd, over the company's alleged under-remittance of $3 billion in taxes and royalties.

As I Expect The Rest Of The World To Also Do

China Doesn’t Want Trade War, but Says It Will Respond if Necessary

China has added its voice to a growing chorus of concern about the rising threat of a trade war and tariffs that U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to impose on steel and aluminum imports later this week.

Monday, March 05, 2018

Oh....Joy

China to raise defence budget by 8.1% in 2018

China announced on Monday an 8.1 percent defence budget increase for 2018, giving the world's largest armed forces a boost after spending slowed in the previous two years. Beijing will spend 1.11 trillion yuan ($175 billion) on its military, according to a budget report presented before the opening session of the annual National People's Congress, according to the official Xinhua news agency.

Vietnam's Dilemma: Which Psychopath To Choose?

USS Carl Vinson on Historic Visit to Vietnam

A U.S. Navy aircraft carrier is paying a visit to a Vietnamese port for the first time since the Vietnam War ended in 1975, seen by many as both countries' efforts to stem expansionism by China in the South China Sea.

Sunday, March 04, 2018

Good Idea

Canada urged to walk away from NAFTA talks over US steel tariffs

The largest private sector union in Canada on Friday called on this country to walk away from continental trade talks in protest if Washington slaps tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. At the same time, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned that the proposed US levies would cause significant pain on both sides of the border.

Saturday, March 03, 2018

For Somebody Who Has Clearly Never Seen A History Book Let Alone Read One

Trump says 'trade wars are good and easy to win'

President Donald Trump spoke out defiantly Friday against global criticism of his plan to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, seeming to welcome the idea of a trade war. "When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win," Trump wrote in an early morning tweet.

I Think They'll React Vindictively, But Trump Doesn't Understand The U.S. Makes Refined Products Not Raw Resources

Canada, Europe, WTO React Negatively to Trump's Threats on Steel, Aluminum Imports

“Absolutely unacceptable” were the words Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau used to describe U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that he plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on imported steel and 10 percent on imported aluminum products.

First You Get The Cheese. Then You Get The Power. Then You Get The Money. Then You Get The Women.

What turns some law-abiding Canadians into smugglers? The high price of imported cheese.

Clara is a college student in Toronto, and in a few days, she's flying home to Paris to visit her family and friends. She also stopping at a fromagerie to buy some cheese to bring back to Canada, specifically Comté, a cousin of Gruyere made under strict rules in the French Alps.

Are We Surprised?

Trump Adviser Sold Stock Ahead of Tariff Announcement

A billionaire investor and former presidential adviser unloaded nearly $31.3 million in a steel-related stock company just days before President Donald Trump announced he would impose steep tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum—news that sent stock markets tumbling around the world.

Thursday, March 01, 2018

The Sentiment Was Correct But The Threshold Was Off

Generally my trending for stocks recently has been bang on, but I was off just a bit on Emerging Markets ETF EEM where I missed the gap down as the overhead resistance level. I think we correctly called a renewal in the decline of equities with ETF's like QQQ making what appears to be a double top pattern with lower high on the RSI(14). This kind of general trend, which does not bode well for the wider market is now being mimicked in the wider market. With EEM we have lower highs on the RSI(14) and the general curve of the chart so we have to ask, "will this stop at MA(144) or keep going down?" As I've said before we need a healthy correction and that's what we find ourselves in the midst of, but the bounce I spoke of a few weeks ago has run its course so it's probably time to take money off the table and enter a few shorts as well.